2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[mmd]

Let's see. Assume prior parts order were based on an exponential ramp from 1500 in Sep to 20k in Dec , and Elon really meant it.
So, it would be something like Sep 1500, Oct 4000-5000, Nov ~10k, Dec ~20k
So, with 5k/week parts for Oct, plan was to produce 5k cars in Oct => 4:1 parts:cars ratio.

Using that ratio, with 3k parts/week in Dec/Jan, I think we should expect 750 cars/week in Dec, if everything else goes well.

 

[zmarty]

First comprehensive Model 3 review:

 

[22522]

I agree. During the X issues one contractor that I know of was asked to stop shipping product for several weeks.

It depends on the contract. I am used to lead time and max slope. Up or down.

I don't see this as bad news.

 

[Snapdragon III]

First comprehensive Model 3 review:

It seems like whatever the nature of the media blackout Tesla had imposed through NDA/FriendDA is lifting? That seems like a good sign. I am very optimistic that this week will be be seen in retrospect to be a major turning point in Model 3 production. I am super excited, despite my current pain related to the options I am holding that are killing me.

 

[Starno]

This guy is doing review almost every week, apparently there's been nice progress :

 

[zmarty]

It seems like whatever the nature of the media blackout Tesla had imposed through NDA/FriendDA is lifting? That seems like a good sign. I am very optimistic that this week will be be seen in retrospect to be a major turning point in Model 3 production. I am super excited, despite my current pain related to the options I am holding that are killing me.

I am very curious who asked them to delay the video until today and why today specifically. What is happening today...?

 

[ZenMan]

I am very curious who asked them to delay the video until today and why today specifically. What is happening today...?

Not sure, but a lot of things are happening as of 10/31/2017. Model S and X $1000 referral credit also ends. Maybe some Model S / X news will come out with the earnings call?

 

[dalalsid]

Not sure, but a lot of things are happening as of 10/31/2017. Model S and X $1000 referral credit also ends. Maybe some Model S / X news will come out with the earnings call?

Refreshed interior possibly, model 3's HVAC at least should come to those.

 

[neroden]

Comments showing up on an Electrek post from someone who claims to be employed by Panasonic at the Gigafactory indicate problems with Panasonic's production at the Gigafactory, specifically with lack of competent American hires (he says the Japanese guys are great but many of the Americans they're trying to train are actually breaking things) and unreliable power supply.

These problems are serious, but IMO addressable in a reasonable timeframe if Musk steps in personally. He may have to make Panasonic raise pay in order to get people to move to the godforsaken nowhere where the Gigafactory is, or even build barracks due to a lack of housing in the area. He will probably have to install Powerpacks at the Gigafactory ASAP to stabilize the power supply.

----
Oh -- also, I take Musk's personal relocation to the Gigafactory to indicate that any known Fremont problems are currently under control. While problems in Panasonic's battery production are in some ways more serious as they affect Powerpack/Powerwall production as well, they appear to be entirely due to incompetent hires and a flaky grid power supply... both of which should be solvable if Musk makes them his #1 priority.

 

[Lessmog]

Comments showing up on an Electrek post from someone who claims to be employed by Panasonic at the Gigafactory indicate problems with Panasonic's production at the Gigafactory, specifically with lack of competent American hires (he says the Japanese guys are great but many of the Americans they're trying to train are actually breaking things) and unreliable power supply.

These problems are serious, but IMO addressable in a reasonable timeframe if Musk steps in personally. He may have to make Panasonic raise pay in order to get people to move to the godforsaken nowhere where the Gigafactory is, or even build barracks due to a lack of housing in the area. He will probably have to install Powerpacks at the Gigafactory ASAP to stabilize the power supply.

----
Oh -- also, I take Musk's personal relocation to the Gigafactory to indicate that any known Fremont problems are currently under control. While problems in Panasonic's battery production are in some ways more serious as they affect Powerpack/Powerwall production as well, they appear to be entirely due to incompetent hires and a flaky grid power supply... both of which should be solvable if Musk makes them his #1 priority.

This does lend some support to the story from "random racist" about a week ago. I agree, if irregular power supply is a grave issue it should have been addressed long ago -- it's not as if Tesla hadn't heard of battery Power Packs so what took them so long?

 

[neroden]

BTW, this also explains the apparently-conflicting statements we heard previously that "the problems are with a supplier" (Panasonic is a supplier) and "the problems are with factory production lines"...

 

[zdriver]

This does lend some support to the story from "random racist" about a week ago. I agree, if irregular power supply is a grave issue it should have been addressed long ago -- it's not as if Tesla hadn't heard of battery Power Packs so what took them so long?

Didn't that guy claim the Japanese guys were the problem? I'm slightly more inclined to believe this new report, since I'd be surprised if Panasonic sent incompetent people halfway around the world for a project like GF1...

 

[Lessmog]

Didn't that guy claim the Japanese guys were the problem? I'm slightly more inclined to believe this new report, since I'd be surprised if Panasonic sent incompetent people halfway around the world for a project like GF1...

IIRC, the guy didn't actually work at GF (any more) but the part about power glitches rang kinda plausible even then, and more so with support from a source on the other side, so to speak. I can believe there were some uncomfortable feelings between nationals and companies.

 

[Drumheller]

Didn't that guy claim the Japanese guys were the problem? I'm slightly more inclined to believe this new report, since I'd be surprised if Panasonic sent incompetent people halfway around the world for a project like GF1...

Not the post I read. He said the American hires were idiots.

 

[elasalle]

Didn't the GF/Panasonic titbit come up like 2-3 weeks back as well - something like some one posted comments on the same on an Australian blog?

 

[erthquake]

Didn't that guy claim the Japanese guys were the problem? I'm slightly more inclined to believe this new report, since I'd be surprised if Panasonic sent incompetent people halfway around the world for a project like GF1...

The poster on the Australian blog said that the Japanese workers couldn't speak English.

 

[Waiting4M3]

BTW, this also explains the apparently-conflicting statements we heard previously that "the problems are with a supplier" (Panasonic is a supplier) and "the problems are with factory production lines"...

Could be related to this:
Panasonic plans to increase battery production at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 and other plants, says report

Tesla: "Panasonic, WTF with the M3 batteries!?"
Panasonic: "OK, OK, here is more money for the GGF, are we good?"

 

[AlMc]

Could be related to this:
Panasonic plans to increase battery production at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 and other plants, says report

Tesla: "Panasonic, WTF with the M3 batteries!?"
Panasonic: "OK, OK, here is more money for the GGF, are we good?"

While EM could certainly be at the GF because of battery production, I highly doubt he is there to fix a Panasonic bottleneck. More likely something that is directly under Tesla control: Pack and/or drive train production would seem most logical to me.

 

[Lessmog]

While EM could certainly be at the GF because of battery production, I highly doubt he is there to fix a Panasonic bottleneck. More likely something that is directly under Tesla control: Pack and/or drive train production would seem most logical to me.

Or, as I keep yappin', grid power stabilisation.

 

[dc_h]

Not sure, but a lot of things are happening as of 10/31/2017. Model S and X $1000 referral credit also ends. Maybe some Model S / X news will come out with the earnings call?

No inventory build??? Implied model S/X upgrade almost certain.