2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ValueAnalyst]

Me too. Glad we sold our June 9, $315's on Friday when the SP was up a $1.50.

I agree that we're mostly underestimating the impact on the SP of the TN. But that doesn't mean that your opinion isn't wildly over optimistic. When they start delivering M3's is about six months before they are planning to do their level 3 demonstration drive across the country. Even at that point if it's flawlessly and rock solid capable of level 5 (which I would normally count on as a short term investment thesis) the cars will still require regulatory approval before they can be used for either level 4 or 5.

1. I don't believe Tesla has named the demonstration ride a level 3 demo. From the description (not requiring any driver intercept), it sounds like a level 4/5 demo to me. Can you provide source link for your bolded statement?

2. Not sure what difference level 4 regulatory approval would make, since the driver must be in the car anyway?

I'm okay with making $75k+ a year giving rides in my level 4 car while reading up on bear FUD. I don't need regulatory approval for that, do I?

 

[bdy0627]

If Tesla is much further along with their AP2 software, why delay rolling it out to new Model S/X owners with the hardware? There has been a lot of frustration for these new owners just waiting to get to parity with the older AP1 functionality. My understanding is that it is close and possibly at parity now but not better than AP1 functionality. It's been about 7 months since they began selling AP2 hardware. If Tesla is in fact much further along in AP2 development, why would they wait to provide that to customers who are paying a lot of money for model S/X now? Musk is all about safety. I find it hard to believe he would hold back on rolling out a safer functionality now in order to allow Tesla to have a big surprise with the release of the cheaper model 3. Does anyone believe that?

 

[SteveG3]

Just made tweet at the bottom to Tesla. If you want to "like" this tweet, and possibly increase the chances Tesla looks at our TMC questions, you can click this link, and "like" the tweet below to make it more prominent to Tesla (it's the most recent tweet from "vistacruiser7" near the top of the linked page. new Elon tweets keep pushing it down the page, : ).


"Thanks! Over at TMC we've been trying to put together good questions all week for this meeting. Please have a look [link included to TMC annual meeting question thread]"


okay, I'm done with prompting all of you, lols : )

edit: fixed link

 

[T3slaTulips]

Just made tweet at the bottom to Tesla. If you want to "like" this tweet, and possibly increase the chances Tesla looks at our TMC questions, you can click this link, and "like" the tweet below to make it more prominent to Tesla (it's the most recent tweet from "vistacruiser7" near the top of the linked page. new Elon tweets keep pushing it down the page, : ).


"Thanks! Over at TMC we've been trying to put together good questions all week for this meeting. Please have a look [link included to TMC annual meeting question thread]"


okay, I'm done with prompting all of you, lols : )

Link did not take me to your tweet, or even to Tesla Motors tweet. Just brought me to twitter. Here's a link to yours:

vistacruiser7 on Twitter

 

[SteveG3]

Link did not take me to your tweet, or even to Tesla Motors tweet. Just brought me to twitter. Here's a link to yours:

vistacruiser7 on Twitter

wow, thanks!!! it did work when I tested it on my computer, but I guess it's more complicated than that. I'll try to fix in earlier posts.

 

[Gerasimental]

ding ding ding ATH!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

ding ding ding ATH!

We should be making lots of ATH in the days / weeks leading to M 3 release.

 

[Gerasimental]

We should be making lots of ATH in the days / weeks leading to M 3 release.

Maybe, but it won't get old for a while

 

[Reciprocity]

1. I don't believe Tesla has named the demonstration ride a level 3 demo. From the description (not requiring any driver intercept), it sounds like a level 4/5 demo to me. Can you provide source link for your bolded statement?

2. Not sure what difference level 4 regulatory approval would make, since the driver must be in the car anyway?

I'm okay with making $75k+ a year giving rides in my level 4 car while reading up on bear FUD. I don't need regulatory approval for that, do I?

I think level 4 is really a temporary thing until it can be shown to be safe. I mean the only major difference in terms of what the car is capable of is that there would be places that would need a human to take over and if one cannot, it would pull over and park. The Level 5 car has to be able to do the same thing. There could always be situations where the car needs to stand down so to speak.

Where as 3 could be something that is common and many cars wont go beyond that point. If you can get to level 4, its only a matter of validation and proof that it can be safe in all areas and have a good system for getting itself out of traffic in situations where the there is a mechanical issue or bad whether or anything else that makes it so it is no longer safe enough. In theory, the controls could be turned over to Tesla and someone could get it safely out of trouble like a drone flying around Iraq from Missouri.

I dont think you would need to be in the car for it to be hugely profitable. Just park it in a busy area and people who rent it, need to be able to take over though they most likely wont. Typically the warning could be 20 seconds or even longer before, just depends on the route. If the car knows you are navigating to an area that FSD is not yet allowed, then it can warn you well in advance. You could literally just walk up to the car, snap a photo of a QR code and snap a pic of your license and the door would open and your customer would be off. If they have never used a Level 4 FSD car before, it could give them a short video to watch before the car will start.

 

[kenliles]

Virginia joins- Paris Accord Coalition


And now Organizational coherence - with Michael Bloomberg leading
States, Cities, and Corporations can join
Called 'We Are Still In"
We Are Still In
(Live statement at 2pm)


Apple, Amazon, Google and other tech giants are joining an effort to adhere to the Paris climate agreement
"
Apple, Amazon, Google, Lyft and Spotify are among hundreds of U.S. businesses teaming up with state and local regulators to pledge their support for the Paris climate agreement as part of a new campaign debuting today.


The effort, called “We Are Still In,” comes days after President Donald Trump announced his plans to withdraw from the pact, a landmark accord signed in 2015 by roughly 190 nations that seeks to reduce the globe’s carbon emissions.

The broad coalition will be led by Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, the sources said. A spokesperson did not immediately comment for the story, but a website for it appears to suggest that more information is coming later today.
"

 

[EinSV]

@adiggs posted this interesting news in another thread and I am taking the liberty of cross posting here since I think it may be of broader interest.

Tesla should be in the running for at least the storage portion of this project but, more importantly, this is another example of a large solar/storage project showing that the storage market could really take off and soon.

Tesla does not need to win every contract for PP2 to start making a nice contribution over the next 12-18 months.

Queensland fast-tracks auction for 400MW renewables, energy storage

The Australian state of Queensland is putting out 400MW of energy generation and 100MW (unknown MWh) energy storage for a reverse auction. The storage end of this is why I'm posting - I see no further concrete details; only a hazy "fast track" and to be held in the back half of the year for timing.

 

[jhm]

Electricity on average costs 50-66% cheaper than gasoline. So I divided current oil price by three. Just a rough estimate, but again, the difference in maintenance costs over a five-year period is a lot bigger than fueling costs.

Lowest cost producers in the middle east can produce oil at $15-20, but that's only up to 50 mbd.

So it would have to be a demand, not supply, driven drop to $15, which is why I said unlikely before 2025.

Possible after that if Tesla and other manufacturers exponentially ramp up EV production and Tesla Energy grows super-exponentially as Elon predicted.

This may help folks think about the price of gasoline. Crude at about $50/b only accounts for $1.186 of the $2.42 price per gallon. If crude fell to $25/b, gasoline would fall about $0.83 to $1.59/gal. In a vehicle with 30 mpg, this is still 5.3c/mile as opposed to 8.0c/mile with gas at $2.42.

With EVs we're looking at 3 to 4 c/mile, maybe as low as 1 c/mile if you can exploit charging on surplus midday solar or other surplus power (which autonomous EVs may well do).

Curiously, with gasoline at $1.59/gal, you can run a generator for about 14.5 c/kWh which gets to 3.6 c/mile in an EV with 250 Wh/mile efficiency. So under such a low oil price scenario, one should definitely be able to find cheap electricity, not that one would actually need to buy a gasoline generator to obtain it. But at these prices, oil potentially competes in power markets, and utility residential rates and fuels used in power generation must be even cheaper to retain share.

It's hard to see how crude could ever be cheap enough to make retail gasoline competitive to electricity. Refining, distribution and marketing costs, and even taxes, are not going away. Although in a distressed market asset stranding could reduce the cost of refining, distribution and marketing. For example, a distressed refiner may be willing to produce at a price below the covering depreciation of the refinery and, if sustained, may eventually need to write down those assets. So we can certainly envision scenarios where the average US retail price of gasoline goes much lower than $1.59/gal, but these likely involve lots of write downs along the retail gasoline supply chain.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Virginia joins- Paris Accord Coalition
View attachment 229879

And now Organizational coherence - with Michael Bloomberg leading
States, Cities, and Corporations can join
Called 'We Are Still In"
We Are Still In
(Live statement at 2pm)


Apple, Amazon, Google and other tech giants are joining an effort to adhere to the Paris climate agreement
"
Apple, Amazon, Google, Lyft and Spotify are among hundreds of U.S. businesses teaming up with state and local regulators to pledge their support for the Paris climate agreement as part of a new campaign debuting today.


The effort, called “We Are Still In,” comes days after President Donald Trump announced his plans to withdraw from the pact, a landmark accord signed in 2015 by roughly 190 nations that seeks to reduce the globe’s carbon emissions.

The broad coalition will be led by Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, the sources said. A spokesperson did not immediately comment for the story, but a website for it appears to suggest that more information is coming later today.
"

What bothers me about this whole issue is 99% of these people don't even drive an EV or do more themselves to reduce their own carbon foot print. Yet we see endless statements about another "pledge" to be directly opposite in the political newsfeed.
Let's not even talk about actually reading the agreement...

 

[Reciprocity]

View attachment 229875

This may help folks think about the price of gasoline. Crude at about $50/b only accounts for $1.186 of the $2.42 price per gallon. If crude fell to $25/b, gasoline would fall about $0.83 to $1.59/gal. In a vehicle with 30 mpg, this is still 5.3c/mile as opposed to 8.0c/mile with gas at $2.42.

With EVs we're looking at 3 to 4 c/mile, maybe as low as 1 c/mile if you can exploit charging on surplus midday solar or other surplus power (which autonomous EVs may well do).

Thanks for posting this in detail. I can see a future where Tesla ties all our batteries into a network where you can set your car to go charge during peak hours as well as stationery storage of course. The Electric company would pay you a premium to use the electricity that would go to waste (curtailed I think is the term) and thus you would not need it at night. They might not pay a lot, maybe 2c/KWh split between Tesla and the owner. Analyst have no clue just what crazy stuff Tesla will be able to do with all those GW of mobile batteries and stationery storage.

 

[Reciprocity]

Virginia joins- Paris Accord Coalition
View attachment 229879

And now Organizational coherence - with Michael Bloomberg leading
States, Cities, and Corporations can join
Called 'We Are Still In"
We Are Still In
(Live statement at 2pm)


Apple, Amazon, Google and other tech giants are joining an effort to adhere to the Paris climate agreement
"
Apple, Amazon, Google, Lyft and Spotify are among hundreds of U.S. businesses teaming up with state and local regulators to pledge their support for the Paris climate agreement as part of a new campaign debuting today.


The effort, called “We Are Still In,” comes days after President Donald Trump announced his plans to withdraw from the pact, a landmark accord signed in 2015 by roughly 190 nations that seeks to reduce the globe’s carbon emissions.

The broad coalition will be led by Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, the sources said. A spokesperson did not immediately comment for the story, but a website for it appears to suggest that more information is coming later today.
"

I wonder how they are going to work out the payments to the UN for the green fund? I think its 100B/Year for 5 years then going up to 300B/Y for the next five years.

Edit: Oh heck I figured it out.. they can just invest 100B in Tesla and use the profits to fund the Greenfund. Please give me my Nobel prize.

 

[elasalle]

Anyone know whether the model 3's are expected beginning of July or end of July?
So far I just know it is in July ..

 

[Reciprocity]

Anyone know whether the model 3's are expected beginning of July or end of July?
So far I just know it is in July ..

Based on the way Elon talked about parts orders, beginning of July. That or they will be hold a lot parts by the end of the year. Because it will take a month to get the parts and turn them into cars and deliver them. That will speed up as they ramp but those first 1000/Week he discussed would probably required the parts to be there July 1. You gotta figure some parts will be delayed a few days as well.

 

[WarpedOne]

Expect end and be not disappointed

 

[DurandalAI]

What bothers me about this whole issue is 99% of these people don't even drive an EV or do more themselves to reduce their own carbon foot print. Yet we see endless statements about another "pledge" to be directly opposite in the political newsfeed.
Let's not even talk about actually reading the agreement...

Do as I say, not as I do.

On the other hand, I see people all up in arms, throwing hissy fits about this, yet don't drive an EV or even a hybrid. You want *sugar* done, you do it yourself, and lead by example. /rant

 

[racer26]

Do as I say, not as I do.

On the other hand, I see people all up in arms, throwing hissy fits about this, yet don't drive an EV or even a hybrid. You want *sugar* done, you do it yourself, and lead by example. /rant

Personally, I don't drive hybrids or EVs because they're green. I drive them because its legitimately cheaper.

Green technology only gets widespread adoption when it is cheaper than the dirty technology (either because the dirty tech has its unpriced externalities [the pollution] taxed, or because the green tech is just *better*)