2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[EinSV]

It's all about the Model 3 right now but as a longer term data point someone on reddit posted the other day that Tesla has posted positions for 48 roofers in California, which suggests it may be getting prepared to start the initial Solar Roof ramp early next year. 24 are "Lead Roofers" and 24 are "Roofer 1s," so presumably 24 teams to start. Search for Jobs | Tesla (search for "roofer")

Edit: Noticed that there are a few exceptions (Foster City, Milpitas, Sacramento) but most of these positions seem to be in SoCal or other areas that don't get much rain (almost none in the SF Bay Area). I am no expert and speculative but that might suggest they plan to start initially with a focus on SoCal during what would be the rainy season in NorCal (November-March, roughly).

 

[AlMc]

Agreed. But those " positive " predictions are most likely off by a few quarters.
In the case of FUDsters, their whole premise is wrong.

When do you think TSLA hits $2K? I don't see it until 2021-22 at the earliest.

Yes, FUDsters general premise is wrong but I believe it is equally dangerous for investors to put out what I will call 'anti FUDster' SP/production number predictions that may lead others to lose as much money as those FUDsters.

I am NOT defending the FUDsters of the world but let us try to 'keep it real' with predictions. (Not directed at you..general comment)

 

[jbcarioca]

When do you think TSLA hits $2K? I don't see it until 2021-22 at the earliest.

Yes, FUDsters general premise is wrong but I believe it is equally dangerous for investors to put out what I will call 'anti FUDster' SP/production number predictions that may lead others to lose as much money as those FUDsters.

I am NOT defending the FUDsters of the world but let us try to 'keep it real' with predictions. (Not directed at you..general comment)

The current situation does call for caution. We simply do not have a solid basis to predict short-term events at Tesla now, IMHO. We do have a. solid basis to predict the medium term, so I remain strongly bullish.Were this the Market Action thread I'd probably remain silent because I have no clue. OTOH, we will know quite a bit more in less than a weeks time.

 

[kenliles]

Yes, FUDsters general premise is wrong but I believe it is equally dangerous for investors to put out what I will call 'anti FUDster' SP/production number predictions that may lead others to lose as much money as those FUDsters.

I am NOT defending the FUDsters of the world but let us try to 'keep it real' with predictions. (Not directed at you..general comment)

Also important (although difficult) to differentiate core objectives. The true bear with a basis for beliefs can easily articulate and demonstrate the underlying principle for those beliefs;
The true FUDster cannot - I think we sometimes throw a FUD label on things we just disagree with and look for that to be the quick explanation.
We clearly have both bear and FUDster on this board as all forums do- but largely it's a solid group here IMO- much better than most I've experienced, and superb cross-discipline expertise.

 

[Starno]

When do you think TSLA hits $2K? I don't see it until 2021-22 at the earliest.

Yes, FUDsters general premise is wrong but I believe it is equally dangerous for investors to put out what I will call 'anti FUDster' SP/production number predictions that may lead others to lose as much money as those FUDsters.

I am NOT defending the FUDsters of the world but let us try to 'keep it real' with predictions. (Not directed at you..general comment)

I also don't see it until 2021-2022.

In my case I'm seeing things on the long term and don't try to time it.

So my point of view is from the " general perspective " that fudsters have it all wrong. And it's going to backfire real hard in a few years.

 

[AlMc]

Snapdragon III, 34 minutes ago
NewI was very excited when I read about the Taiwanese parts order, thinking 10k a week by June sounds great. I just looked again, and It looks to me from the Google translate, that it is 10K per month, not per week. That is not nearly as exciting.

I took this from the 'Market Thread' and it is significant. Can someone else that is fluent in this language confirm this difference? Thanks

 

[JRP3]

Already checked in the other thread that it's per week

 

[3Victoria]

Check:

It's definitely per week, original text says "每周1萬", "每周" means every week, "萬" means 10,000.

Also "原訂12月起每周5,000套零組件的供貨水位" means initially they targered weekly 5,000 pace in Dec. It's very clear, no misunderstanding here.

 

[Fallenone]

Snapdragon III, 34 minutes ago
NewI was very excited when I read about the Taiwanese parts order, thinking 10k a week by June sounds great. I just looked again, and It looks to me from the Google translate, that it is 10K per month, not per week. That is not nearly as exciting.

I took this from the 'Market Thread' and it is significant. Can someone else that is fluent in this language confirm this difference? Thanks

Google translate is wrong

 

[AlMc]

Already checked in the other thread that it's per week

Check:

Google translate is wrong

THANKS!!

 

[schonelucht]

Depressing news today. As usual I can't help but bring up the worst take : Tesla cutting to 3k/week does not mean that is the level that Tesla needs in December. It may simply be the lowest they contractually are allowed to cut.

 

[Navin]

Don’t be depressed. Tesla doesn’t have a demand issue. It’s jusf production constrained.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Depressing news today. As usual I can't help but bring up the worst take : Tesla cutting to 3k/week does not mean that is the level that Tesla needs in December. It may simply be the lowest they contractually are allowed to cut.

That's probably the case. But Tesla now likely has a significant inventory of parts they haven't been able to use. So, if they'd cut to zero, that wouldn't have said anything about the ramp either.

We will just have to sit tight and wait for production hell to end.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Depressing news today. As usual I can't help but bring up the worst take : Tesla cutting to 3k/week does not mean that is the level that Tesla needs in December. It may simply be the lowest they contractually are allowed to cut.

The article says that the contract stipulates that Tesla must inform the supplier of any order change 2 months in advance, which Tesla has satisfied. There is nothing indicating any minimum part # that Tesla has to order. Lets try not to speculate too wildly here.

The article also says that the supplier plans to maintain 5K/wk parts production rate starting Nov going forward despite of Tesla's order cut, and they will just deliver as Tesla orders. My take is that they have confidence that Tesla will exceed 5K/wk soon so the extra parts will be absorbed soon.

The supplier has reached 5K/wk pace in Oct according to the article, so it will deliver 4.5wk * 5K in Nov (per contract it's too late for Tesla to change Nov delivery), and 4.5 wk * 3K in Dec, minimum of 36K parts in 2017 even if we don't know how many they've delivered up to and including Oct. If Tesla plan to use all these parts, say by the end of Jan, it'll be a pretty good production ramp IMO.

 

[Waiting4M3]

That's probably the case. But Tesla now likely has a significant inventory of parts they haven't been able to use. So, if they'd cut to zero, that wouldn't have said anything about the ramp either.

We will just have to sit tight and wait for production hell to end.

To me the fact that they didn't cut to 0 is significant. If the production is completely stalled and no end in sight, why wouldn't they cut to 0?

 

[AlMc]

To me the fact that they didn't cut to 0 is significant. If the production is completely stalled and no end in sight, why wouldn't they cut to 0?

I agree. During the X issues one contractor that I know of was asked to stop shipping product for several weeks.

 

[mongo]

If Tesla plan to use all these parts, say by the end of Jan, it'll be a pretty good production ramp IMO.

And here is the crazy thing. They can tune the production line in short bursts to provide an accurate run at rate (need enough to show part/ people restrictions). So they can tune the line with limited parts. Once tuned, the line can assemble at that new tuned top speed. So while vehicle output may be low, the available build rate may be following the ramp. Once the parts arrive, it could jump from hundreds to thousands overnight.

Analogy, an orange juice plant was able to process 1000 oranges an hour. It added a second line, but there was a frost, so it is only juicing 300 an hour. When the next crop comes in, it will juice at 2000 an hour.

At least I would like to think that...

 

[Waiting4M3]

And here is the crazy thing. They can tune the production line in short bursts to provide an accurate run at rate (need enough to show part/ people restrictions). So they can tune the line with limited parts. Once tuned, the line can assemble at that new tuned top speed. So while vehicle output may be low, the available build rate may be following the ramp. Once the parts arrive, it could jump from hundreds to thousands overnight.

Analogy, an orange juice plant was able to process 1000 oranges an hour. It added a second line, but there was a frost, so it is only juicing 300 an hour. When the next crop comes in, it will juice at 2000 an hour.

At least I would like to think that...

Theoretically true, practically there is still a QA bottleneck, both for incoming parts acceptance, and also on finished car (and potentially WIP cars). I don't imagine Tesla has automated the QA process, but who knows, with the imagine processing AI expertise they have...

 

[mongo]

Theoretically true, practically there is still a QA bottleneck, both for incoming parts acceptance, and also on finished car (and potentially WIP cars). I don't imagine Tesla has automated the QA process, but who knows, with the imagine processing AI expertise they have...

Oh for sure, they are going to be capped the max line rate which is capped at the slowest process. I'm just saying that they could improve cycle time in the background while being held up by part availability.

 

[Waiting4M3]

In other news:

First Tesla Michigan gallery opens at Somerset