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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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wasn’t the tax credit essentially an offer to car manufacturers to help their customers afford electric cars,for a period of time, until the cars could become more price competitive? Car manufacturers invested billions to support of this government sponsored program. Now the new regime wants to back out in the middle of the program. Can’t auto manufacturers sue over this. Would any other than Tesla actually want to?
 
What is the GM Cruise? Is it coming out in the next 6 months, or do you think the model 3 will take much longer?

Bolt + Cruze automation is actually a decent solution. EV+autonomous is the future and atleast GM kinda gets it. Others are lost... Like completely. I probably it because it's as close to Tesla with FSD as anything in the market. It's less important who gets there first really it's more important who gets there better, meaning Tesla is the only company on the planet working on a real world solution, not just an experiment with $100,000 per car worth of hardware. GM+Cruze is a nonstarter in the real world, but atleast they are trying and are on the right path.
 
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The vast majority of modern ICE cars go 100k miles without a major powertrain failure or major repair.

According to Consumer Reports Lexus LS is consistently in the top 3 most reliable cars sold in America. In me experience Lexus LS goes 500k miles without major repairs.

On the other hand, Mercedes S Class is consistently one of the least reliable cars sold in America. Not with major powertrain problems in the first 3 years of ownership but with minor electric motors and electric parts going bad. After that there is no objective reliablitity data just reputation and anecdotal evidence. And yeah, I know a guy who spent $5k on replacing a radiator on an S Class after ~120k miles.

But no one is forcing customers to buy the least reliable cars in class like a Chrysler 200,300 or an S Class. Making gross exagerations on ICEv cost of ownership doesn't convert ICEv owners. They know how much things cost. You can buy a Corolla or LS 460 if you want a reliable ICEv.

You can cross check consumer reports by going on the Lexus LS forums. The 500,000 number you mentioned w/o powertarain issues are for older model Lexus LS before 2007 when all the added features of electronics were not available. With the added features the car is prone for hiccups. The control arm problems in the LS are massive and well known, which cost $4-5$k to fix, many 2007 models have had their arms replaced as early as 30k miles, and multiple times before reaching 100k miles. I use to own the LS so I know of all its problems and research the vehicle thoroughly. I can tell you that my radiator and ignition both died before 85k miles. My friend who is a mechanic, also has the same issue with his 2007 LS, control arms needed replacement. His cousin who works for Lexus (also a mechanic), sees those issues more than he can count. My uncle owns a Mercedes/BMW repair shop and he would not recommend those cars to anyone. Both mechanic I talk to will also not recommend buying any German cars above 100k miles. From 50k German cars will slowly eat away ones wallet. People tend to think of Benz as having nice interior quality, but that is not something I have been hearing from owners who I speak with directly. They all tell me one thing, never again, just because their $100k car starts to fall apart at the seams, arm rest wouldn’t close, etc.... Even for me, who once owned the most reliable car (according to consumer reports), will never buy another lexus based on my own personal experiences. As for Bummers and Benz, I wouldn’t touch them with a stick.

Although the LS has better transmission than the Benz and Bummer, it’s going to cost $5k for the 2007 models to be replace, and no, I wouldn’t bet on that LS lasting 500,000 miles. My 2008 LS was a good car, but it’s no Tesla by a log shot.

I would like to also add that cars such as the Corolla are reliable not because they’re nicely built, but because they barely have any additional features like luxury vechiles often do. When you add more bells and whistles, the car will need more parts, which will essentially break down. This is why German cars and luxury cars often end up in the mechanic shop. Also, the more powerful the car, the more parts it will need and more prone to breaking down. The corrola is neither a luxury car or a powerful one, hence the reliability goes up. Now if corrola or Lexus builds a Model S ludicrous model, I would expect them the be one of the most unreliable cars on the market.
 
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Porsche is not in the same league as Tesla. Try GM. GM cruise will be ready before Tesla fixes Model 3 problems.
You are completely right. Porsche 2 seater cars(Boxster, cayman) are very much downmarket part of Porsche offering.
New Tesla Roadster will compete with top end of 911 range, like 911 Turbo, or a bit higher, like Ferrari 488, McLaren 570 or even 650 etc...
And yeah, that black car in the picture is GT4, top of the Cayman range, so I know what I'm talking about.
 
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wasn’t the tax credit essentially an offer to car manufacturers to help their customers afford electric cars,for a period of time, until the cars could become more price competitive? Car manufacturers invested billions to support of this government sponsored program. Now the new regime wants to back out in the middle of the program. Can’t auto manufacturers sue over this. Would any other than Tesla actually want to?

Tesla is the only company positioned to not give a damn about the tax credit. This might have not been true 5 years ago, but it is today. S/X have had several price drops and improvements to the base model at those lowered prices. The S dominates it's class and the X is well in its way. The 3 is already competitve within it's own segment and down to a level on par with Camry's and Accords when you consider TCO and residual value. 6 months.. only 6 months until time runs out for the competition. It's all downhill for them. You have to understand that Tesla is not just assaulting the competition, they are attacking the margin sweetspots for those competitors, the high end down instead of the low end up. They are not just vacuuming up market share, they are consuming margin and sucking the oxygen out of competitors lungs. And what happens when Daimler and BMW and Audi wake up? Massive "cash burn" or as I quantly like to call it.. investments.. but what will they earn for their billions? Will they take market share from Tesla? Maybe.. more then likely they will take market share from their own profitable brands. And now, without tax credits, they are in bad shape. For every 0 margin EV they sell, they lose a high margin comparable ICE sale and with zero tax credits to offset those kisses. It's going to hurt.. don't really care. I'm invested in Tesla. Buy the dip.
 
Over the last couple of weeks someone left the door open and with no cats around, the place has filled up with vermin. I suggest a few of these to clean up this place:

https://www.amazon.com/RUGGED-RANCH-RATTR-Ratinator-Multiple/dp/B00DTX3QD8

Or else we need a couple of hungry barn cats. Either way, this place is starting to smell and it won't be healthy to hang around until a mod decides it is time to clean house.
 
Invites out. New image
7DF0D270-1970-462A-BEE4-31625D65885E.jpeg
 
Bolt + Cruze automation is actually a decent solution. EV+autonomous is the future and atleast GM kinda gets it. Others are lost... Like completely. I probably it because it's as close to Tesla with FSD as anything in the market. It's less important who gets there first really it's more important who gets there better, meaning Tesla is the only company on the planet working on a real world solution, not just an experiment with $100,000 per car worth of hardware. GM+Cruze is a nonstarter in the real world, but atleast they are trying and are on the right path.

That is why I have stock positions in both of these companies. Stocks of other car companies will stay sideway rather than up. I am also holding on to Nvidia. This company is a world leader in AI that cannot be ignored.
 
Why LOL? Have you ever actually operated an automation robot? They likely mean cycling through different parts of it program by hand, not really moving it by hand (although that can be done too). It's actually pretty common to do in debugging and setting up stage or even when recovering from a fault situation. From a purely technical POV there is nothing implausible about it.

I LOLed at the misleading depiction of a robot being operated by hand. Next time I will ask for your permission before I LOL.

They could have easily said the robots are still being debugged. Any lay person would have understood it. But no, they had to use the favourite FUDster term “by hand”.
 
Why LOL? Have you ever actually operated an automation robot? They likely mean cycling through different parts of it program by hand, not really moving it by hand (although that can be done too). It's actually pretty common to do in debugging and setting up stage or even when recovering from a fault situation. From a purely technical POV there is nothing implausible about it.
As @SPadival says below, the clear implication the way the text was written was as though Tesla was saying "automated", but doing "by hand". Debugging robots by manually stepping them through the code is still part of the automated process. Therefore, FUDster misrepresenting the truth, i.e., lying as usual.

I LOLed at the misleading depiction of a robot being operated by hand. Next time I will ask for your permission before I LOL. They could have easily said the robots are still being debugged. Any lay person would have understood it. But no, they had to use the favourite FUDster term “by hand”.
 
The whole "this won't hurt Tesla" argument is so lame. Most people buy what they can afford (or stretch it a bit), even those who buy Model S/X. Once $7500 goes away, these customers are going alter their decisions on the composition on the vehicle they purchase. And unfortunately, my bet is the options that contribute most to profit margin will be cut. Less purchases of autopilot, bigger battery, etc...

You don't seem to know much about Model S/X buyers. Losing a 7,500 tax credit when you are buying a 100K car won't slow down the majority of S/X buyers. The majority of these high income buyers aren't going to scrimp on options they really want just to offset a credit they can easily live without. The rest of your post was just extrapolating from your unsupported assumptions that all buyers will eliminate those options which yield largest amount of gross profits. Just more FUD 'profits will never come' hysteria.
 
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