Julian Cox claimed his articles on SA caused a spike in TSLA, are you as delusional as he was?
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ValueAnalyst
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I did not claim a causation.
I did change my mind on the night of delivery report after reading this post (which I marked helpful at that time):
Although I didn't publicly immediately announce it, I did make that point the next day with this post.
That OP is what I call an insightful post. Not regurgitation of readily available public info.
shortvolume.com shows shorts the most active of any time in the last 3 months, as a percentage of daily volume.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
And here's a very similar post from me:
Look, you clearly have something personal against me, and that's fine. If you want to put me back on ignore, that's fine too.
I just wanted to kindly bring to your attention, with an example, that you may have pessimism bias that is blurring your interpretation of facts.
For the benefit of other members, this is my last post on the topic.
5.6k seems very low... but it is good to lower expectations right now.
jelloslug
Active Member
It's always better to under promise and over deliver.
200K 3s in 2018 is Gene's estimate, coupled with S + X sales dropping to 57K per year in 2023 from the current 100K guidance for the year.
Looks like Gene is publishing his low end estimate. It's easy to take the over on these numbers.
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm personally still reading just don't have much of anything to add right now. It feels to me like a "lull" for the next week or two, so I'm not planning any trades. I was actually hoping to shift more of my J19 LEAPs to J18s on this dip but didn't get much done there. That's pretty much my trading experience with TSLA. I don't shift out of leverage as much as I'd like near the top and vice versa at the bottom. Selfishly, I don't mind if the stock dips a little bit again before the Semi reveal. Of course, if it decides to go up instead, that's fine too.
Hmm.. more like just a touch of green with mostly red..Just like hibiscus green tea
ValueAnalyst
Closed
He's also assuming $44k Model 3 ASP for 2H17 and $21-$22 billion of total revenue for both 2018 and 2019. What in the world...
erthquake
Active Member
If he's assuming less than 6k deliveries, then his ASP for those cars should be at least $50k (LR, PUP, delivery), and probably closer to $51k when adding the 19" wheels.
Does anyone have an idea how many first production Model 3s Tesla will deliver before they start delivering versions w/out the PUP and big battery?
Good point. I think it's fair to assume all Q4 deliveries will be LR + PUP. I say this given the slower than expected start. Though there may be some employee deliveries in there with the standard battery.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Option prices are calculated. If the price returns to the previous level they'll be worth less than they were before. You can use this calculator to determine the approximate price (you might want to look at how much they'll be worth if the SP hits ~$450 in June or July
). I would probably not recommend holding them that long, it would be safer to roll them to J20's before then.Long call calculator: Purchase call options
That depends on if you believe we are at the bottom (we don't).
It might depending on the SP over the next ~six weeks to wait until the J20's are available in November.
Other than that I don't see any reason that you shouldn't do that but I'm sitting on 100% cash now, waiting to go all in on either J19 or J20 LEAPS when the SP drops to (I hope) under $315. Most of the other people on this forum consider that too risky. I believe that it's like shooting fish in a barrel.
Not an advice!
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Thanks Dave... In the newsleter, Gene notes:
'For the Dec-17 quarter, we’re now expecting 5.6k Model 3 deliveries, compared to the Street which was 15.8k. For 2018, our new numbers expect 200k (reduced by 8%) Model 3 delivers, compared to the Street which was previously at ~280k.'
My own analysis, through reverse-engineering revenue estimates, produce expectations roughly like this:
Q4 17 - 20K
Q1 18 - 34K
Q2 18 - 46K
Q3 18 - 63K
Q4 18 - 82K
In other words 2018 expectation is at 225K
In any case, in a short term perspective, I am vigilant of the ramp. It appears that Tesla has maybe 3months to show good production rate. If the delays are substantially more than that, then I am not sure how market will react. I am just expressing uncertainty, not necessarily predicting that stock will fall.
VIN watching is not accurate, however it provides useful inverse info. Say there are no records higher than 2000 end of Nov, then we know we have a problem (this part is useful). But if there are records of say 10000, then we may or may not have an issue or a bullish scenario, we don't know (this part is not useful).
So I think @dennis attempts to find the highest vin and @vgrinshpun efforts to check nhtsa db are indeed useful.
Just a thought to reflect on:
When Adam Jonas said only 2K model-3s in 2017, we all laughed (including me). He very explicitly said it is because Tesla will prioritize quality over quantity.
Many people argued: Elon said so, M3 is easy to build, A class suppliers, etc
Now when Tesla misses the number badly, we are all using that exact Jonas argument to justify the miss.
Point is it's wrong to dismiss conservative posts/thoughts, especially through regurgitation of Elon/Tesla speak.
We got lucky this time with S/X news. Doesn't mean we have been right.
When Adam Jonas said only 2K model-3s in 2017, we all laughed (including me). He very explicitly said it is because Tesla will prioritize quality over quantity.
Many people argued: Elon said so, M3 is easy to build, A class suppliers, etc
Now when Tesla misses the number badly, we are all using that exact Jonas argument to justify the miss.
Point is it's wrong to dismiss conservative posts/thoughts, especially through regurgitation of Elon/Tesla speak.
We got lucky this time with S/X news. Doesn't mean we have been right.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I believe that if they put any thought into the comments that they added to the numbers (their reasons for disappointing @AlMc and @austinEV) is because they are not confident that they will have the issues resolved before the ER.
Of course it's possible that is wishful thinking because I'm hoping for a good entry point to buy a bunch of J19 or J20 LEAPS.
While I understand and agree with your point generally re: not being too quick to dismiss conservative guesses (make no mistake, AJ made a guess and it may or may not be right), I think it's very premature to declare AJ on the winning side of this argument.
I'd say most reasonable people expected 15k-25k M3 production in 2017. We still have a full 3 months to get there and I think it's far from certain that Tesla will only be able to eke out another 1700 in this entire quarter. The only people proven wrong so far are the uberbulls predicting 75-100k and the permabears predicting production to begin mid 2018.
It's fair to say that many of us still feel the burn from the Model X ramp and that's understandable. I still maintain that the Model X ramp was a total anomaly and little to no information about future ramps can be gleaned from that ramp. These reasons have been stated a 100 times so I won't go into great detail, but - simpler car, more experience gained from past mistakes, Tesla is betting the company on this launch, more resources, better tech, better process/feedback loop with engineering, "no fundamental issues" like the falcon doors/seals, etc.
I'll bet the final 2017 production numbers are closer to 15k than 2k when all is said and done. But I'm just throwing a dart using logic and management guidance as supporting evidence.
In the end, this is all just noise. Elon is building the line to build 10k/week and there's demonstrable demand to buy the product. If Elon wants it, it will happen. He will produce the Model 3 at a 10k/week clip. If it takes slightly longer to get there it doesn't really matter, aside from short term options bets. People waiting since 3/31/16 to buy this car are not going to suddenly go buy a Bolt because they have to wait an extra month or 2. There's literally nothing else like it on the market. I hope they don't hit big delays, but Tesla actually has the unique luxury of being able to totally botch the ramp if they want and it won't matter, long term. At worst there's a temporary stock drop, like with the X ramp.
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