2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[zdriver]

Doesn´t make sense to me. Even if the main motivation is to save money, you´d still fire the low performance employees, no?
Also with lots of other jobs reportedly listed as open...

When the stock price is running away from you too quickly, you gotta come up with something to slow it down quick...

Down nearly $2 now, I'd say it worked, at least temporarily.

 

[Navin]

Yep. Total manipulation. As we get closer to 360 - look for some fireworks, including at least one ws analyst downgrade.

 

[Hogfighter]

Doesn´t make sense to me. Even if the main motivation is to save money, you´d still fire the low performance employees, no?
Also with lots of other jobs reportedly listed as open...

When was the last time we heard, "This just in.....Tesla hires 400-700 workers"

 

[jhm]

I've never fired a poor-performing employee who admitted as much. Like ever.

"I'm not going to blame myself."

 

[racer26]

I don't understand - poor performance or cost cutting, terminations will generally target the least-performant employees, because that just makes sense.

Tesla says these people will be replaced. There are hundreds of job postings on tesla.com/careers. They're clearly not just closing up shop.

Wall St should see firing people as a good thing - it means costs go down, and all else being equal, lower costs equals greater profits.

 

[3Victoria]

Based on my personal experience in every work place I have ever been involved in, I find it shocking that the lowest performing employees self reported that "I am the best"! I have never encountered anything like that.

Edit- Hogfighter beat me to it.

Good example of Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

 

[austinEV]

Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related -- Several current and former employees told CNBC that Tesla's recent round of firings was not targeted at low-performing employees, but appeared to be a cost-cutting measure. --CNBC


Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related

Convenient timing of this article release. Algos successfully sunk price over a buck, straight from HOD.

Well, nasdaq turned the same time. And it bounced off of the 50 day. No conspiracy required.

I've never fired a poor-performing employee who admitted as much. Like ever.

Yeah, exactly. Everyone fired thinks its for some other reason. Expect the next headline: "Tesla fires 700. They all had bosses who were jerks who didn't get them".

Tesla rates employees on a scale from 1 to 5. Two laid-off employees had achieved scores at or above four in past performance reviews with their managers, they said.

I bet money that everyone gets 4 or 5. So 4 means you are bad. Grade inflation happens in reviews unless you come down hard on it and give rating quotas.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Can you clarify what "TBA $360" means?

Technical buy area

 

[kenliles]

So... building a pre-brand with Polestar 1 Hybrid (at 500 per year) -
then the real brand in the 2 - ?
Guess it's the Polestar 2 because it's 2 years away

and naming the Tesla Mod 3 for the first time-
this really is exposing the problem (similar to @vgrinshpun points in earlier posts)

Volvo’s Polestar unveils performance electric car, announces new ‘Tesla Model 3 competitor’
"<
“Polestar 2 will start production later in 2019 and will be the first battery-electric vehicle (BEV) from the Volvo Car Group. It will be a mid-sized BEV, joining the competition around the Tesla Model 3, and with consequently higher volumes than Polestar 1. The initial phase of the Polestar product roll out will then be completed by the subsequent arrival of a larger SUV-style BEV, the Polestar 3, which will create a modern expression of electric performance and driving dynamics.”
>"

 

[TrendTrader007]

Is there a link for this or is it a newsletter?

it is a paid newsletter I think I am paying approx. $100 or so a month
just google Dan Zanger and you will find his website called Chart Pattern.com
i'm a huge fan I took his two seminars
it cost $1700 per person for a day but was totally worth it

 

[TrendTrader007]

Does Dan Zanger share his price target of what he thinks happens after TSLA breaks out of base?

no he does not
typically he tells you when to buy and when to sell and he is uncannily accurate with I suspect a prediction rate of more than 80 to 90 % correct if not even better
the guy is a total whiz at TA and charts
he made $40 million from $10K between 1998 and 2000 and then he again made millions in google in 2005 to 2006 and then tons on FB
it's funny I met him in 2015 and he was talking about buying 400,000 shares of FB casually like you and I would talk about buying 1000 shares of TSLA
I really do not know why he is not a billionaire

 

[ValueAnalyst]

So... building a pre-brand with Polestar 1 Hybrid (at 500 per year) -
then the real brand in the 2 - ?
Guess it's the Polestar 2 because it's 2 years away

and naming the Tesla Mod 3 for the first time-
this really is exposing the problem (similar to @vgrinshpun points in earlier posts)

Volvo’s Polestar unveils performance electric car, announces new ‘Tesla Model 3 competitor’
"<
“Polestar 2 will start production later in 2019 and will be the first battery-electric vehicle (BEV) from the Volvo Car Group. It will be a mid-sized BEV, joining the competition around the Tesla Model 3, and with consequently higher volumes than Polestar 1. The initial phase of the Polestar product roll out will then be completed by the subsequent arrival of a larger SUV-style BEV, the Polestar 3, which will create a modern expression of electric performance and driving dynamics.”
>"

The short list of traditional automakers openly acknowledging Tesla's leadership is lengthening:

"It’s interesting that they mention Tesla’s Model 3 by name, something rare in the industry."

I see Tesla eventually taking half of TAM, which I believe is underestimated by those who look at only automotive market caps.

 

[erthquake]

no he does not
typically he tells you when to buy and when to sell and he is uncannily accurate with I suspect a prediction rate of more than 80 to 90 % correct if not even better
the guy is a total whiz at TA and charts
he made $40 million from $10K between 1998 and 2000 and then he again made millions in google in 2005 to 2006 and then tons on FB
it's funny I met him in 2015 and he was talking about buying 400,000 shares of FB casually like you and I would talk about buying 1000 shares of TSLA
I really do not know why he is not a billionaire

Maybe because of 2000-2005 and 2006-2012?

 

[austinEV]

Maybe because of 2000-2005 and 2006-2012?

That was my thought too. It is easy to only discuss the winners. Also, those who own a technique to get stock trades right 90% of the time don't need to sell their technique.

Having said that, he might be smart and right a lot.

 

[Snapdragon III]

About 15 years ago, I was casually chatting with a successful portfolio manager, who was one of my mentors at the time. He had, for over two decades, been with an international asset management firm, which had multi-billion dollar AUM and an investment style of extensive bottom-up fundamental research with a macro overlay.

During our conversation, I told him that I was using technical analysis to pick stocks. He laughed, and laughed, and laughed, and said (and I remember it like yesterday):

"We piss on the hands of technical analysts."

I was very angry, but I didn't say anything to him at the time. I just paused. I had invested years in learning and practicing technical analysis, and I thought I was doing okay. I thought that what he had said was an extremely arrogant thing to say, and I was done with the conversation.

Ever since, however, I have repeatedly noticed setups like the one you described above: an indisputably strong technical signal (in this case, the "downward MACD cross"), but the stock price just does not act as predicted ("refuse to go down"). This is what's called a bear trap, and I agree with your last sentence.

To this day, I wonder if stock prices are manipulated to show certain chart setups to sway retail investors. I don't know the answer, but I no longer think that this idea is as crazy as it sounded 15 years ago.

I'm not trying to defend Technical analysis, but I am curious if you have followed the performance of this hands pisser's fund? Has it beat the indexes net of fees?

 

[DaveT]

it is a paid newsletter I think I am paying approx. $100 or so a month

How can you afford that? I thought your TSLA position was $10.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I'm not trying to defend Technical analysis, but I am curious if you have followed the performance of this hands pisser's fund? Has it beat the indexes net of fees?

Much more relevant question is how often he was trading stocks in his fund.

 

[TrendTrader007]

How can you afford that? I thought your TSLA position was $10.

lol you're right I can not
$17 now
raised the stakes a bit

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm not trying to defend Technical analysis, but I am curious if you have followed the performance of this hands pisser's fund? Has it beat the indexes net of fees?

Yes, I followed his performance very closely, because I actually ended up in a position a few years later where I had a professional relationship with him too. His sharpe/information ratios were high, which isn't that surprising, because they say arrogance and performance usually go hand in hand in the asset management industry.

Much more relevant question is how often he was trading stocks in his fund.

5-10 year horizon, so very low turnover.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Maybe because of 2000-2005 and 2006-2012?

I dunno
I doubt it