California is now the World's 5th largest economy

[Lump]

Looks like moving company's in Seattle are going to get very busy with move outs.

The Seattle City Council voted unanimously Monday to adopt a new tax on the city’s largest employers to help address homelessness.

The ordinance will impose a tax of $275 per employee, per year on for-profit companies that gross at least $20 million per year in the city

Seattle City Council votes 9-0 for scaled-down head tax on large employers

 

[wdolson]

The entire title is misleading. "California is 5th again" in something. We returned to a previous position again.

I can only find rankings going back to 2000 where California was #5. It was #5 until 2003 when Arnold Schwartzenegger became governor, then it started slipping. 7th in 2003, 8th until 2010 when it slipped to 9th. By 2012 it was 10th. Then it started coming back under Jerry Brown (he entered office in 2011). Since 2013 it's been moving up year by year until it hit 5th again.

There are parts of California where the cost of living isn't bad, but then not that many people want to live there either. California is the biggest agriculture state in the US by a huge margin, but it barely registers as a blip in the overall state economy. The state is home to some huge industries and has been for most of the last century.

California has its ills, but economically having Democrats in charge have helped the overall economy. At least in recent years.

I like the climate of the Northwest much better than anywhere I lived in California (Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Morro Bay). Seattle has many of the same problems as the major cities in California. Traffic is worse IMO because the traffic planning people believed if they didn't expand the freeways, people wouldn't move there. Now they can't afford to expand them. Portland took a different approach, but trying to stay a mid-sized city and expanding freeways when the land was cheaper. Portland traffic is getting worse like any larger city, but they do have better alternatives than Seattle and they don't have as many freeway choke points as Seattle (the I-5 bridge at the Columbia being the biggest exception and it hasn't been replaced because of pig headedness on the part of the Vancouver city council).

 

[McRat]

I can only find rankings going back to 2000 where California was #5. It was #5 until 2003 when Arnold Schwartzenegger became governor, then it started slipping. 7th in 2003, 8th until 2010 when it slipped to 9th. By 2012 it was 10th. Then it started coming back under Jerry Brown (he entered office in 2011). Since 2013 it's been moving up year by year until it hit 5th again.

There are parts of California where the cost of living isn't bad, but then not that many people want to live there either. California is the biggest agriculture state in the US by a huge margin, but it barely registers as a blip in the overall state economy. The state is home to some huge industries and has been for most of the last century.

California has its ills, but economically having Democrats in charge have helped the overall economy. At least in recent years.

I like the climate of the Northwest much better than anywhere I lived in California (Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Morro Bay). Seattle has many of the same problems as the major cities in California. Traffic is worse IMO because the traffic planning people believed if they didn't expand the freeways, people wouldn't move there. Now they can't afford to expand them. Portland took a different approach, but trying to stay a mid-sized city and expanding freeways when the land was cheaper. Portland traffic is getting worse like any larger city, but they do have better alternatives than Seattle and they don't have as many freeway choke points as Seattle (the I-5 bridge at the Columbia being the biggest exception and it hasn't been replaced because of pig headedness on the part of the Vancouver city council).

It depends on how often you go outside, and how much different numbers affect you. Let's look at the basics for the poor and working class for 2000 vs 2018:

The median prices of California homes has risen 241% since 2000.
Wages have risen 140%.
Inflation in California rose 154%.
The percentage of most taxes is now higher. Even a 0.1% percentage increase reduces your discretionary income.
We now have many toll roads. Ironically, California invented the word Freeway.
Poverty is extremely high in California.

The reason you are hearing California is doing the best it's ever done is for political advertising. It has no basis in fact when it comes to the non-government workers. The rich and the government workers are doing better. The middle and lower class are not.

California Democrats are for the rich land developers, not the poor or middle class.

 

[wdolson]

Over the last 35 years the trend of the rich getting richer and everyone else not making more has been a US national trend. Most "red" states minimum wage is equal to the federal minimum wage. Most "blue" states, including California have higher minimum wages than the federal minimum.

California is currently ratcheting up the minimum wage to close to 2X the national minimum. As of Jan 1, 2018 it's $11 an hour. A higher minimum wage helps the poorest people. And the toll roads were a Schwartzenegger thing.

 

[T34ME]

And of course California has Tesla, and Silicon Valley, and world class wines up and down the State, and it is a trendsetter for the whole world. Gonzalez is the most common surname in California. Minority ethnicity is about equal to indo-European ancestry consequently GREAT ethnic restaurants. In the winter I can be at the beach for surfing and 2 hours later be in alpine forests for skiing. Average wages are very high and reflect higher cost of real estate, both buying and selling.

Is California perfect? Nope, but I have been in over half the States and I haven't found anything better.

 

[wdolson]

And of course California has Tesla, and Silicon Valley, and world class wines up and down the State, and it is a trendsetter for the whole world. Gonzalez is the most common surname in California. Minority ethnicity is about equal to indo-European ancestry consequently GREAT ethnic restaurants. In the winter I can be at the beach for surfing and 2 hours later be in alpine forests for skiing. Average wages are very high and reflect higher cost of real estate, both buying and selling.

Is California perfect? Nope, but I have been in over half the States and I haven't found anything better.

I feel I found better, but the Northwest isn't for everyone. The ethnic mix especially in the Los Angeles area is very extensive. The Wall Street Journal called Los Angeles the capital of the Third World.

The food options in Portland are pretty good too, and some would argue that in at least some varieties Oregon makes better wines. My SO swears by Oregon pinot noir.

 

[dmode]

It depends on how often you go outside, and how much different numbers affect you. Let's look at the basics for the poor and working class for 2000 vs 2018:

The median prices of California homes has risen 241% since 2000.
Wages have risen 140%.
Inflation in California rose 154%.
The percentage of most taxes is now higher. Even a 0.1% percentage increase reduces your discretionary income.
We now have many toll roads. Ironically, California invented the word Freeway.
Poverty is extremely high in California.

The reason you are hearing California is doing the best it's ever done is for political advertising. It has no basis in fact when it comes to the non-government workers. The rich and the government workers are doing better. The middle and lower class are not.

California Democrats are for the rich land developers, not the poor or middle class.

Your post sounds like the decades of GOP propaganda about "California failing" that has now been proved laughably incorrect as CA becomes the 5th largest economy in the world, with only 2/3rd population of the UK. Meanwhile, Kansas and Oklahoma are failing badly.

As for the poverty rate, CA poverty is not extremely high. It is somewhere in the middle, which is remarkable considering CA is a border state. CA poverty rate only becomes high if you add a supplemental housing adjustment due to extremely high house prices.

List of U.S. states and territories by poverty rate - Wikipedia

 

[wdolson]

I suspect McRat did mean that the effective poverty rate due to the cost of living put a lot of people who wouldn't be counted poor by the national average under the poverty line. It is definitely a problem. In a lot of cases it forces lower income people into horrendously long commutes. A lot of Bay Area low income workers need to live in Stockton and other cities in the Sacramento Delta region. Even back in the late 1980s some people were commuting from Bakersfield to the LA area. A lot of low income people live out around San Bernardino and commute into LA too. That is a problem, but it's a different issue from high unemployment and the economy cratering.

 

[T34ME]

I feel I found better, but the Northwest isn't for everyone. The ethnic mix especially in the Los Angeles area is very extensive. The Wall Street Journal called Los Angeles the capital of the Third World.

Sometimes, not always, I consider WSJ as the Seeking Alpha equivalent of the economic news media with some narrow minded conservative journalists with an agenda of propaganda. The WSJ could have also called Alabama the Iran of the United States. Obviously, neither statement is true but it does make for perpetuating stereotypes.

The food options in Portland are pretty good too, and some would argue that in at least some varieties Oregon makes better wines. My SO swears by Oregon pinot noir.

Ah, Portland OR, I have a love/hate relationship with the place. We have three close cousins who live there and visit periodically. Beautiful area when it is sunny which isn't often. Most people have a pasty complexion. Solar power is not as effective in Portland. Cold/wet climate plays hell with my lumbago. No sales tax but property and income tax are relatively high (but not as high as California) and real estate is expensive. And the place feels isolated to me. Flight connections are a real hassle. But Portland does have Pink Martini which is one of my favs and will be on my model 3 playlist. And I find the people are not as friendly as Californicans. To repeat from another thread, I think the Ducks SUCK and I hate Tillamook cheese. As far as wine, preference is highly personal. I am not a fan of relatively "heavy" wines like Pinot, Merlot, and Cabernet except with "heavy" foods like red meat and dark chocolate which I rarely consume. They are not good for sipping "au natural." The best value in wine is "Three Buck Chuck" from Trader Joe's which are mostly blended varietals from California (my deceased father was in the Central Valley California wine business).

My highly skilled handymen are undocumented Hispanics who I pay $30 per hour. My barber is Viet Namese. My primary care doctor is Indian. My mechanic is Muslim. My father's care giver was Filipina. My best friends are Canuckistanis. Yes, if you don't want to mix with large numbers of the unwashed masses from abroad, the kind of people like our ancestors who originally made America Great for themselves and their progeny (but not so much for First Nation people), then some other place that is less cosmopolitan may be best for you. Portland, a beautiful great place to visit but I wouldn't want to live there.

 

[McRat]

Your post sounds like the decades of GOP propaganda about "California failing" that has now been proved laughably incorrect as CA becomes the 5th largest economy in the world, with only 2/3rd population of the UK. Meanwhile, Kansas and Oklahoma are failing badly.

As for the poverty rate, CA poverty is not extremely high. It is somewhere in the middle, which is remarkable considering CA is a border state. CA poverty rate only becomes high if you add a supplemental housing adjustment due to extremely high house prices.

List of U.S. states and territories by poverty rate - Wikipedia

The Los Angeles Times is one of the most liberal newspapers in the US. Don't take my word for it:

Why is liberal California the poverty capital of America?

Los Angeles has a poverty level of 25%. We have rich, and we have poor, but the middle-class has been dwindling since about the 1980's.

And in case you're curious, those stories about homeless problems in million dollar housing areas? They are true. We rode by miles of them camped in the Santa Ana River in Orange County, and just returned from Santa Barbara and things are no better. This did not exist when I was growing up.

 

[dmode]

The Los Angeles Times is one of the most liberal newspapers in the US. Don't take my word for it:

Why is liberal California the poverty capital of America?

Los Angeles has a poverty level of 25%. We have rich, and we have poor, but the middle-class has been dwindling since about the 1980's.

And in case you're curious, those stories about homeless problems in million dollar housing areas? They are true. We rode by miles of them camped in the Santa Ana River in Orange County, and just returned from Santa Barbara and things are no better. This did not exist when I was growing up.

Again, poverty rate is somewhere in the middle, but is accentuated by housing costs and that’s why it is captured as supplemental poverty rate. There is a difference between families living in a 1 bedroom vs people who are desperately poor and has to rely on food stamps.

Other things that impact poverty rate - California’s generous welfare policies and homeless services. Which I am totally ok with as at the end of the day you are helping a fellow citizen in dire need. But I also recognize the fact that generous welfare policies also attract people from other state where decades of anti poor policies have made life difficult.

At the end of the day, CA has only one problem - Lack of housing. All the other points you mention is an offshoot at that. There are a lot of legislators like Scott Weiner who are constantly taking a crack at that, but you are up against a very powerful and entrenched NIMBY force that dominates local politics. I volunteer for YIMBy organizations for this very reason and we have made significant headway. I truly believe the next 10 years will see more liberal housing policy.

Finally, I would rather live in California with its 5th largest economy and aspirations for a clean future with generous welfare policies and leadership in social equality and accept the downside is homelessness which is entirely solvable

 

[dmode]

I suspect McRat did mean that the effective poverty rate due to the cost of living put a lot of people who wouldn't be counted poor by the national average under the poverty line. It is definitely a problem. In a lot of cases it forces lower income people into horrendously long commutes. A lot of Bay Area low income workers need to live in Stockton and other cities in the Sacramento Delta region. Even back in the late 1980s some people were commuting from Bakersfield to the LA area. A lot of low income people live out around San Bernardino and commute into LA too. That is a problem, but it's a different issue from high unemployment and the economy cratering.

Exactly, I just wanted to clarify that. There is poverty that results in cramping families into tiny houses and then there is poverty caused by decades of failing industry and economy in rust belt or in the south. The former is solvable by a generous housing policy and building affordable housing. The latter is a much much more difficult

 

[Lloyd]

I've lived in San Diego and I've spent a load of time in Orlando(a few months every year during winter). Some observations:

• Orlando far more liberal and diverse than San Diego. San Diego is a military town whereas Orlando is an artist community...and guess who's working at the theme parks and cleaning the zillions of hotel rooms?
• Traffic...if you think your escaping traffic by moving to Orlando your mistaken.
• Income Tax...yes they don't have income tax but there are so many toll roads it makes up for it plus.
• If your concerned with foreigners, Orlando has more folks from other countries than anywhere I've ever been.
• You didn't mention it but...weather. San Diego has the most perfect weather of anywhere I've lived. Orlando is decent Nov-March but then becomes super tropical gross with lots of creepy crawly, bugs like you've never seen before etc.

So yeah...enjoy Orlando!

Ok so lets all go to cape cod!! I hear it's nice there!!

 

[arcus]

California is number one in this category

Gone To Texas: Migration

 

[McRat]

...
Finally, I would rather live in California with its 5th largest economy and aspirations for a clean future with generous welfare policies and leadership in social equality and accept the downside is homelessness which is entirely solvable

The '5th largest economy' depends on what you are measuring and whether you're an investor, but it was higher than that during the Cold War. The latest '5th place' uses population and multi-national corps to create that number. When it comes to median income, unemployment, and poverty levels, which is what the poor and middle class see on a daily basis as the 'economy', California is at best average today, and in many metrics, below the national average.

California laws currently harm 10kW+ solar systems. EV commercial charging rates are draconian. 55% of all foreign nationals receive some form of public assistance.

I'm not middle class, or poor. But that's where I started. If I had to start today, my opportunities and goals would be far harder to achieve today.

I don't want political change to enrich myself. I want it for my kids and their kids. It was gravy for me to climb the food chain in California with no money. My oldest had to leave and go to Utah to get a decent job with her business degree or she would never reach middle class, six figures to start in Utah, 2/3rds of that in California after 5 years. It will be worse for the next two.

 

[T34ME]

Ok so lets all go to cape cod!! I hear it's nice there!!

Been to Cape Cod and it is okay but too cold and too toney for my taste and it is not San Luis Obispo nice. I owned and lived in the Crocker House (corner of Chorro and Buchon) for 27 years (prefer the yellow color I painted it rather than the present blue color)..

 

[mspohr]

U-Hual truck rentel rates says it all, California middle class outbound demand is so large they are charging 10X more for a 26' truck for people leaving Cali then a family moving in.

From San Francisco to Las Vegas its $2100, the opposite rental is only $130.
From Los Angeles to Phoenix a truck rental cost $1600, but the opposite only costs $130.
From San Diego to San Antonio its $3500 but the opposite is $800.
San Fran to Seattle Wa. costs $3400, the opposite is $650.

I look at this as a good thing.
The intolerant people who can't stand the diversity, social justice and work ethic of California are leaving. This has two benefits. It improves the cultural environment and average intelligence of California by getting rid of misfits. These people also improve the average intelligence of the places they move to since those are generally below average.
Win-win!

 

[T34ME]

California is number one in this category

Gone To Texas: Migration

Yes, conservative retirees from Blue States are moving to Texas, a conservative Red State which will only increase the net influence of at least 4 Blue States and diminishes the influence of Red State Texas. Texas will have to grapple with providing services and infrastructure for all that new retiree population which will not come cheap (ask California). Eventually, once the bloom is off cheap living and the oil industry declines, people will leave Texas in droves. California is building for the future while Texas is stagnating in the past (banning Tesla sales while supporting the traditional dealership model for example). California is #5 in the world economy, where does Texas rank? (hint: California economy grew at 10% from 2015 to 2017 while Texas grew at 3%)

 

[Lloyd]

And...... Washington (Seattle) just shot themselves in the foot by enacting a $275/year/ employee tax on large employers (over 20 mil gross) IIRC to take care of their homeless population. Why would they enact a socialist tax that punishes the largest employers that gives the city the prosperity that it has? If I was setting up a company with any large billings I sure would not choose Seattle!

Amazon and Starbucks employ ~ 60,000 people there. Whats keeping them from moving elsewhere that is not so regressive??

 

[mspohr]

And...... Washington (Seattle) just shot themselves in the foot by enacting a $275/year/ employee tax on large employers (over 20 mil gross) IIRC to take care of their homeless population. Why would they enact a socialist tax that punishes the largest employers that give the city the prosperity that it has? If I was setting up a company with any large billings I sure would not choose Seattle!

Amazon and Starbucks employ ~ 60,000 people there. Whats keeping them from moving elsewhere that is not so regressive??

I think that the term for what Seattle is doing is "progressive". Somebody has to stand up to the capitalists who have no morality, who are happy to take the benefits of our society but refuse to contribute to building a better society.