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I disagree. A generalized coronavirus discussion in the investor forum is important because of how much it impacts the economy. If there is any improvement in the response or if there is a worsening of the outlook, those are both things that I want to be aware of as an investor.

There is noise in this thread, but set a few people to ignore and it becomes much easier to read. If you want to set up a separate thread for Tesla specific coronavirus stuff, go right ahead.
I like the thread the way it is, it was a suggestion to all the people complaining. Except for some gratuitous political trolling and innumeracy this thread is not that bad. IMHO there's no reason argue about things that happened a decade ago or a month ago.
 
I suspect California and Tesla will start openings things back up on May 1st. Not everything of course - but jobs that cannot be worked from home (like manufacturing) will go back under close watch.

I think that is far too optimistic, but I think your view is likely what is currently priced into the market and TSLA stock. Hence, I am not buying (but probably will if it drops into the mid-300s again, which I think is likely due to macro issues - not issues with TSLA itself). I don't see any way we won't keep this going in California until mid-May. The thing is, the case load has to be reduced to a level where an extremely aggressive contact and trace strategy can KEEP it at a low level. In addition, all of that infrastructure has to be put in place (and I see little evidence of that right now as we are still in "crisis" mode. There is no way we'll be at the caseload level we'll need to be in terms of new cases, by May 1st, I don't think.
 
I disagree. A generalized coronavirus discussion in the investor forum is important because of how much it impacts the economy. If there is any improvement in the response or if there is a worsening of the outlook, those are both things that I want to be aware of as an investor.

There is noise in this thread, but set a few people to ignore and it becomes much easier to read. If you want to set up a separate thread for Tesla specific coronavirus stuff, go right ahead.

The economy tanked making gas cars more attractive, oil crashed, purchasing power fell, TSLA will lose money this quarter, and the Profits (sic) of Doom are screaming at full bandwidth everywhere. And TSLA climbed starting Mar 18?

The C19 issue seems entirely disconnected from TSLA. C19 is a valid subject for discussion, but I can't see how it relates to the stock prices. I continue to hold my TSLA shares even though logic would dictate to sell. It could tank or skyrocket tomorrow, it's anyone's guess.
 
IHME estimates a peak lack of ventilators of between 20 - 50k (95% CI)
Since about 80% die on the ventilator, that implies an excess morbidity of between 4,000 - 10,000 due to inadequate ICU level hospital resources.

That is presuming that people do not die from lack of supplemental oxygen resources. That group is potentially *much* larger
 
I think that is far too optimistic, but I think your view is likely what is currently priced into the market and TSLA stock. Hence, I am not buying (but probably will if it drops into the mid-300s again, which I think is likely due to macro issues - not issues with TSLA itself). I don't see any way we won't keep this going in California until mid-May. The thing is, the case load has to be reduced to a level where an extremely aggressive contact and trace strategy can KEEP it at a low level. In addition, all of that infrastructure has to be put in place (and I see little evidence of that right now as we are still in "crisis" mode. There is no way we'll be at the caseload level we'll need to be in terms of new cases, by May 1st, I don't think.

Something of a counterpoint - I work for a manufacturer that has implemented aggressive social distancing and related rules in order to keep manufacturing working. Some of these were first learned from manufacturing in China. It helps we're a big enough contributor to the local economy that there is incentive to help make it happen.

Tesla has similar learnings available. The combination of learnings from a plant that is open elsewhere, along with specific social distancing policies and practices, AND the importance of the Fremont factory to the local economy - as long as Tesla has the demand so that Tesla WANTS the factory open, there will be motivation on the part of the state, the county, and the city to help Tesla get the factory opened back up.

Tesla will need to do it's part - an aggressive and comprehensive plan for how to keep people safe while also getting cars made.


The upshot from my point of view - I don't have a time for when the factory will re-open, but the motivation and incentives are all in alignment to make it happen. There is also evidence in the world, both generic and specific to what Tesla does, that it can be done and done successfully.
 
I suspect California and Tesla will start openings things back up on May 1st. Not everything of course - but jobs that cannot be worked from home (like manufacturing) will go back under close watch.
Sonoma County has tightened restrictions as of two nights ago, and extended to May 3rd. I'm not convinced we'll be moving quite so quickly, but we'll see.
 
Sean Wagner said: ↑
The last lockdown paces the nation. This is not the time for "feral" government.

Interesting thought. Could you elaborate? Thanks

I can try. So many variables.
It presupposes a population still widely susceptile to the disease.
And it also presupposes that somewhat effective measures on the individual level are possible and widely followed to manage the contagion's progression.
It then becomes a question of exponential spread, susceptibility, connections, and synchronicity.

So it comes down to drying out the reservoirs of virus by individual action. As we can presently see, a high or low number of infected people represents just two to three weeks' movement along the time axis of an exponential curve.

"Disconnecting" an entire US state the way Wuhan was temporarily cut off from the rest of China seems very much a stretch to me. Then let's posit a scenario where the state farthest along in "drying out" the virus sits next to the state with the lowest curbs on transmission. How porous is the border, and how transmissible the rule sets people adhere to?

The fastest way to break the progression while incurring the smallest amount of disruption is for the entire country to spend something like three [that's a placeholder] simultaneous weeks of strict lockdown together.

It's also the best motivator for doing it right, I think - being in it together.


I mentioned something similar in regards to the corona virus party members. Seems a KY judge has made at least part of it happen.

Kentucky puts ankle monitors on coronavirus patients who break quarantine

...
Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.
...
A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead
 
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So I have read a lot about how S Korea is a great example of doing it right. Especially compared to the United States.
S Korea is a little larger in area than Indiana and smaller than Kentucky. That is, it is about 1/100 the size of the US.
There are 28 airports in S Korea. The US has 149 international airports. S Korea has 2.
I think it is easier for S Korea to control the Coronavirus.
 
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Too many positive and negative feedback loops operative in this vast mess between now and July to generate an estimate that someone should see as anything but within an order of magnitude. Anything more precise than that is likely to be unreliable.

Of course there are many variables but the national and worldwide data set is growing. Of course accuracy is limited, but you need to start somewhere. Nothing wrong with a "best guess" effort. As time goes on, predictions become easier and trends become more clear.

These are estimates derived from current knowledge and apparently there are many here that are not shy about sharing their analysis and the underlying data supporting it. Accurate or not time will tell.
 
So I have read a lot about how S Korea is a great example of doing it right. Especially compared to the United States.
S Korea is a little larger in area than Indiana and smaller than Kentucky. That is, it is about 1/100 the size of the US.
There are 28 airports in S Korea. The US has 149 international airports. S Korea has 2.
I think it is easier for S Korea to control the Coronavirus.

Counterpoint:
51 million, 1/7th the US population in that 1/100 size area. So 14 times more dense. Which does likely make some difference to the R0.
 
Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others.
...
A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead
There are definitely some super spreaders around. Like the Boston BioGen conference where nearly a 100 of the ~180 attendees got infected in 2 days. When the story is written in a couple of years - we'll know whether asymptotic people spread the most or fewer super spreaders.
 
Too many positive and negative feedback loops operative in this vast mess between now and July to generate an estimate that someone should see as anything but within an order of magnitude. Anything more precise than that is likely to be unreliable.
I predict once we get over the hump, past peak, this topic will lose interest rapidly. People will go back to work and the declining death numbers will just become background noise. We will have more interesting things to focus on.
Peak end of this month or early May. People losing interest towards end of May and June. No need to worry about July, people will be enjoying summer.
 
Of course there are many variables but the national and worldwide data set is growing. Of course accuracy is limited, but you need to start somewhere. Nothing wrong with a "best guess" effort. As time goes on, predictions become easier and trends become more clear.

These are estimates derived from current knowledge and apparently there are many here that are not shy about sharing their analysis and the underlying data supporting it. Accurate or not time will tell.

For sure. I was not knocking estimation. I'm just saying that it's notoriously imprecise especially this far out. It's a bit like the weather. You can map the first several recursions pretty well, but then the holes in your comprehension of all the interactions mean that the further out you get the bigger the gap between your prediction and the weather that actually emerges.
 
Noon news here on SFBay area saying hospitals are bracing for a surge and the county is trying to give an up-to-date dashboard of statistics to keep people in the know and be as transparent as they can be wanting people to understand the numbers and situation they pose.

Gov. Newsome is talking about help to small businesses right now.
 
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The Chinese have REFUSED to publish their data for others to review. They have published a SUMMARY of it, but they don't release the full data for others to review and recreate their work. That is HIGHLY suspect for poor quality data.

I'm an M.D., Ph.D. Literally your tax dollars were spent to train me for medical research just like this.

I would LOVE for HCQ to be a panacea here, but the data do not at this time support that conclusion, and our fearless leader made things worse by advocating for the drug on extremely poor studies. Go back through all 400 pages of this thread, you will see that I actually break down each and every study on HCQ in various posts here.

The substance at this time, does not match the hype.


Regarding the use of HCQ, we continue to see reports from physicians actually prescribing the product that the results are very positive. Specifically, if HCQ (particularly in combination with zinc and azithromycin) is given to CV19 patients early, it noticeably reduces the number of patients to ultimately require hospitalization.

Here's the latest article:
Italy Finally Starts Mass Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine

In the article, Dr. Pier Luigi Bartoletti, Deputy National Secretary of the Italian Federation of General Practitioners, explains that every single person with Covid-19 that has early signs, like a cough or a fever for example, is now being treated with the anti-malaria drug.

"The results that we are starting to accumulate suggest that hydroxychloroquine administered early, gives the possibility of avoiding this evolution in a majority of patients and is also helping us to prevent hospitals from filling up.”

Debate Ends Over Chloroquine as France Officially Sanctions Usage

"Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona."

FDA
As you also know, last week the FDA in the United States granted emergency authority to use chloroquine and HCQ that are in the national stockpile for the treatment of covid-19.

Let's keep politics out of this discussion, however. I may make a separate post about the politics of the HCQ controversy at some point, but in our discussions of whether the drug works or not for covid-19, politics has no place.

I respect your qualifications as a physician and researcher, and I hope you respect just as keenly the qualifications of the French and Italian medical authorities and the decision of the FDA doctors and researchers to make this drug available in the U.S. for treating covid-19

What we need is an honest discussion of HCQ with data points. @bkp_duke if you have previously posted links to studies that dispute the value of HCQ , please repost because none of us has the time to go through all your old posts with the hopes of finding one. We need links to results or real world observations, not your personal summaries. Thank you.
 
Noon news here on SFBay area saying hospitals are bracing for a surge and the county is trying to give an up-to-date dashboard of statistics to keep people in the know and be as transparent as they can be wanting people to understand the numbers and situation they pose. ...
Fear mongering and sensationalism, what the news does best. The numbers in Santa Clara are in decline last time I checked. Yes it is good to prepare for surge, but that won't happen until the stay at home orders are relaxed.
 
Pence, in Craziest Lie Yet, Denies Trump Ever Downplayed the Coronavirus

A recent timeline of trump idiocy (after he tired of calling Covid-19 a hoax.)
March 9
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

March 24
We’ve never closed down the country for the flu. So you say to yourself, ‘What is this all about?

The most basic take-away is that he cannot grasp the significance of an exponential curve.
No wonder preparation was non-existent
 
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So I have read a lot about how S Korea is a great example of doing it right. Especially compared to the United States.
S Korea is a little larger in area than Indiana and smaller than Kentucky. That is, it is about 1/100 the size of the US.
There are 28 airports in S Korea. The US has 149 international airports. S Korea has 2.
I think it is easier for S Korea to control the Coronavirus.
What difference does that make? There's 51M+ people there. That's a pretty good sample size. 1/6 of the US.

What's needed are strategies to crush the spread in urban areas. There are 16M people in the Seoul metro area and pretty much none of them died in this outbreak.
 
I suspect California and Tesla will start openings things back up on May 1st. Not everything of course - but jobs that cannot be worked from home (like manufacturing) will go back under close watch.

Teslas software engineers in Palo Alto could still work from home.

California is trending pretty decently in terms of containment.
Yes - I'd be surprised if Fremont doesn't (atleast partially) reopen in May.