Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

Excess deaths data seems to be all over the place to me. I've seen graphs floating around with massive spikes for covid infinitely larger than the 2018 flu season, now I stumbled upon this one from the CDC....

Flu 2018 weekly peak was 67.7k or 9.3-13.4% above expected deaths.
Covid weekly peak was 79.2k or 36-40.8% above expected deaths.

I would love to see this kind on analysis broken out by age for this event and 2009 Swine Flu. Not trying to be inflammatory, just really interested in the reaction to covid which killed ~60 American kids under 18 in all health conditions(if I'm reading the CDC figures right) and 2009 Swine Flu pandemic which killed several hundred school aged American kids. Parents literally think their kids are gonna die if school opens. How?

What will be interesting is how the peak looks for 2020/21 traditional flu season. I guess that could conceivably be worse than the April peak globally if a few factors like vaccine development go poorly.

The trailing off for the the last couple weeks(ending June 27) is just data flow not being there yet?

Anywho....I just thought it was a rational chart.

 

[N5329K]

Welp, my mask order from Cov.care went unfulfilled for 4 weeks so I disputed the charge today. The last couple of days they answer the new orders line but disconnect from the line that answers questions about placed orders.

I'd appreciate any good leads people have for KN95 masks. Why wife and I have been using two masks we had from 2019 but they are pretty long in the tooth now.

Check your local Ace Hardware. Mine has stacks of 3M N95 boxes in stock.
Robin

 

[TespaceX]

Santa Clara County got their late Phase 2 reopening variance approved over the weekend so today places like hair salons can open; first time since early March. Got my afternoon appt. set for today. Figured no way of knowing what the weeks ahead will bring as far as falling back on reopening of things so getting it cut short to last for a few months if need be. However not all counties at this time will be able to have hair salons stay open.

Gov. Newsom is speaking now and is Statewide shutting down some indoor operations like bars for example. As for the specific 30 counties on the WatchList (see screen grab below), pull backs will shut down some indoor things, like hair salons. Here’s the list from a few slides if you’re interested.

View attachment 564201 View attachment 564204

View attachment 564205

What?! Someone has some money funneled to Sacramento.
How can Alameda County and Santa Clara County not be on the list (even with having obtained a variance) but Contra Costa Co. is?
Those two counties have higher case and death numbers. What the sorcery is that?

How do you live in California and still vote for Trump because of Taxes?? His blue tax affected me by 5 digits, I would imagine it's likewise in California.

Again, it’s not about Trump. It’s about the R party being more tax friendly. I work with HNW and UHNW families.

 

[bkp_duke]

How do you live in California and still vote for Trump because of Taxes?? His blue tax affected me by 5 digits, I would imagine it's likewise in California.

In all fairness, I more than made up for the loss in state tax write-offs with the overall decreased fed tax rate. I understand that wasn't the case for everyone in blue states, but for our family, it was a net positive (by 5 figures).

 

[bkp_duke]

San Diego Unified campuses to remain closed, classes online-only when school begins on Aug 31

San Diego has made the decision to go to all online classes for the next school year.

I expect this to cause significant uproar around here (San Diego, not this thread), but I agree with the decision.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

t trying to be inflammatory, just really interested in the reaction to covid which killed ~60 American kids under 18 in all health conditions(if I'm reading the CDC figures right) and 2009 Swine Flu pandemic which killed several hundred school aged American kids. Parents literally think their kids are gonna die if school opens. How?

We've shut down the economy, only ~20 million people have been infected to generate the deaths currently shown in that chart, and we STILL have that massive spike. And yet you ask this question again....

I think it's fairly self-evident why parents are concerned. And I suspect it has more to do with their well-being and the grandparents' well-being (and the teachers' well-being!) than it does concern for the kids' health (though I'm sure there are plenty of parents concerned about their children as well). I think older parents literally think they could end up in the hospital if their kids go back to school. I have a 46-year-old brother who has elementary school children. That starts to become a significant risk factor (probably about 0.1% chance of death if he were infected (since he is in generally good health), and substantially higher risk of hospitalization - both incredibly high numbers!).

The swine flu infected tons of people as I recall - and caused very little mortality. It's been covered in this thread with the statistics - you can look it up.

The trailing off for the the last couple weeks(ending June 27) is just data flow not being there yet?

Yes.

 

[TespaceX]

San Diego Unified campuses to remain closed, classes online-only when school begins on Aug 31

San Diego has made the decision to go to all online classes for the next school year.

I expect this to cause significant uproar around here (San Diego, not this thread), but I agree with the decision.

Same with LAUSD.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

What do people think about mask wearing being made mandatory in public, enforced by police & fines issued?

 

[bkp_duke]

Same with LAUSD.

I find it interesting that they are going against the AAP, which I agree with them for not following those recommendations.

Epidemiologists are telling people to stay at home, not re-open school, etc., and the group representing pediatricians is saying re-open.

Time will tell which of these two groups had the better plan. As a pediatrician, my money is on the epidemiologists.

 

[bkp_duke]

What do people think about mask wearing being made mandatory, enforced by police & fines issued?

I would love for it to be, but the problem is there are not nearly enough police to enforce it. And with all the stuff that's happened recently with BLM, I would expect trying to do something like that would just set off another powder keg. The police in most jurisdictions are going to pick and choose their battles in the near future. They are not going to get involved in anything potentially "marginal", only things that they feel like they can readily defend themselves about if accused.

 

[jerry33]

What do people think about mask wearing being made mandatory in public, enforced by police & fines issued?

I'm all for it as long as they are reasonable about it. Meaning they don't pull over people in their cars for non-mask use (particularly S and X with bio-defense).

 

[linux-works]

What do people think about mask wearing being made mandatory in public, enforced by police & fines issued?

in theory, yes, it should happen.

in practice, not so sure. for one, cops are often trumpers and, well, we can't trust their judgement.

2nd, its dangerous to interact with cops, at any level, in any way. I don't encourage any interactions with cops, unless you have zero other choices. fully serious about that, too.

the NON-mask wearers might get fined or even see a nite in jail, but when they get out, revenge-time. I don't want to risk some maniac trying to even a score with me. don't doubt it won't happen, either.

I don't see a solution in the current america, for this problem. I really honestly don't.

 

[TespaceX]

I find it interesting that they are going against the AAP, which I agree with them for not following those recommendations.

Epidemiologists are telling people to stay at home, not re-open school, etc., and the group representing pediatricians is saying re-open.

Time will tell which of these two groups had the better plan. As a pediatrician, my money is on the epidemiologists.

I wonder what the decision process was like for the AAP to make the recommendation they did. Was it a simple majority among a group of doctors?

Most (though, not all) doctors I know, if given the option, are choosing not to send their kids for full-time in-person school. Even my FIL who was a peds with Stanford suggested we keep our kids at home.

 

[bkp_duke]

I wonder what the decision process was like for the AAP to make the recommendation they did. Was it a simple majority among a group of doctors?

Most (though, not all) doctors I know, if given the option, are choosing not to send their kids for full-time in-person school. Even my FIL who was a peds with Stanford suggested we keep our kids at home.

The AAP has a board, I'm sure that is where the decision came from. They certainly did not send out a poll to the board certified physicians asking for input, I would have gotten a copy of that.

The AAP is NOT pro-Trump, so the decision cannot be based upon falling in line with his wishes for sure.

 

[cucubits]

I would love for it to be, but the problem is there are not nearly enough police to enforce it. And with all the stuff that's happened recently with BLM, I would expect trying to do something like that would just set off another powder keg. The police in most jurisdictions are going to pick and choose their battles in the near future. They are not going to get involved in anything potentially "marginal", only things that they feel like they can readily defend themselves about if accused.

Sadly this is very true. There are just too many nutcases who would fight such an order and as you say, with the BLM nonsense going on, it couldn't have been a worse time for this. Extremely difficult to enforce effectively. It's like we don't have enough on our plates for 2020, let's see where do we shoot ourselves next

Also, there should be a point made about wearing masks properly: I see far too many wearing masks with their nose sticking out.

 

[bkp_duke]

in theory, yes, it should happen.

in practice, not so sure. for one, cops are often trumpers and, well, we can't trust their judgement.

2nd, its dangerous to interact with cops, at any level, in any way. I don't encourage any interactions with cops, unless you have zero other choices. fully serious about that, too.

the NON-mask wearers might get fined or even see a nite in jail, but when they get out, revenge-time. I don't want to risk some maniac trying to even a score with me. don't doubt it won't happen, either.

I don't see a solution in the current america, for this problem. I really honestly don't.

As someone who grew up in a law enforcement family, I would kindly ask that you don't LABEL all police officers as you have in this thread - reading between the lines as "corrupt, immoral, vengeful" based upon your above statement.

I grew up around these people, and with the rare exception, they are all upright, honest people that always gave the people they were interacting with the benefit of the doubt.

The vast majority of police officers are honest people, that are serving their communities to the absolute best of their ability. You should not judge all of them for the bad actions of a very VERY limited number of individuals.

 

[SMAlset]

Covid-19 reinfection 3 months later and with worse symptoms. Vox article:

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.

I have wondered if those who were basically asymptomatic would be compromised afterwards. Sure would make all those Gen X & Y people on here arguing against masks for them and their Gen Z kids seen in a different light. The other aspect of the article of course reliability of any immunity from surviving it first go round.

FWIW here’s another similar news story from today. This one from a patient in a different part of the country from the one in the above Vox story and his testing covid-19 positive was 4 months apart from his initial diagnosis.

Sure, it’s just a couple of accounts of this happening but we know there’s a lot we don’t know about it, so good to be aware of what’s being reported. I still think it should give maskless and/or recovering patients pause.

From People Magazine:
Nashville Man Urges People to Take Coronavirus Seriously After Two Positive Tests, 4 Months Apart

 

[linux-works]

As someone who grew up in a law enforcement family, I would kindly ask that you don't LABEL all police officers as you have in this thread - reading between the lines as "corrupt, immoral, vengeful" based upon your above statement.

I respect your view but I'm not changing mine.

I would not suggest increased interactions with cops. ESPECIALLY not right now, when things are hot-box with the two sides (and yes, unless you ignore the news, there has been a war going on and its far from settled).

 

[SMAlset]

Is it really worth it to risk it? Just because the county says they can open doesn't mean your safety is guaranteed. So many things are about risk/reward ratios these days...

oh I’ve thought a lot about this already. Will be donning my N95 mask from last year’s wildfire timeframe that I keep in my car when I go. Just washed my hair so all I need is the minimal time for a cut. Blow dry etc I can do from home. No intention to spend any longer than necessary. But yes there is still a risk. My husband goes out to get groceries, take out orders so we know there’s a risk he could bring it home too.

As for someone’s question on how some counties can reach this point and others move backwards, Gov. Newsom address some of this in an earlier briefing. Lots of things are taken into account - population, covid positive percentage, beds/icu available, testing and tracing, deaths, type of transmission (family/friends/work/other) and not sure what else. Right now I’m aware of San Mateo County permitting hair cuts and now Santa Clara County both here on the Peninsula side. It is risk/reward weighing.

 

[bkp_duke]

I respect your view but I'm not changing mine.

I would not suggest increased interactions with cops. ESPECIALLY not right now, when things are hot-box with the two sides (and yes, unless you ignore the news, there has been a war going on and its far from settled).

Alright, but consider this:
The fewer police there are, the more citizens will arm themselves. We are already seeing that pan out, with deadly consequences.