scottf200
Well-Known Member
This is a Coronavirus thread? Why not keep this in the other monkeypox thread and anyone that wants to follow it can put a watch on it?
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The problem is that a mod foolishly warned heltok to stop posting in that thread because he was the only one doing so.
Yeah, if I post in that thread my posts get deleted.
I post because I think it’s important to follow the exponential growth early as I am convinced that an exponential growth will eventually become large numbers. I am not saying that Monkeypox will become big a pandemic, just that the past few months of growth indicate that it’s worthwhile to keep track of it to better understand the future so we can make more informed investment decisions and protect the people we care about. Maybe R >1, maybe R<1 and we have just been very unlucky to see the current growth. The future will tell. But if R>1 then we have a big problem. And imo it seems pretty likely that we have R>1 given the data we have. For every week of growth, the probability of R>1 goes up. And by now we have a lot of weeks with growth.
I post because I think it’s important to follow the exponential growth early as I am convinced that an exponential growth will eventually become large numbers. I am not saying that Monkeypox will become big a pandemic, just that the past few months of growth indicate that it’s worthwhile to keep track of it to better understand the future so we can make more informed investment decisions and protect the people we care about. Maybe R >1, maybe R<1 and we have just been very unlucky to see the current growth. The future will tell. But if R>1 then we have a big problem. And imo it seems pretty likely that we have R>1 given the data we have. For every week of growth, the probability of R>1 goes up. And by now we have a lot of weeks with growth.
Hope you recover quickly.
I have an Apple Watch, which doesn't have all the metrics that your Whoop does, but I noticed the same thing - daily resting heart rate is usually 56 for me and it went as high as 67 on the day of my peak fever. Heart rate variability only nudged upwards, not really outside of normal movement. Blood ox down to 94%. Sleep restlessness through the roof. It is kind of neat to see the trajectory of the metrics as you make your way through fever, etc.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Looks like Omicron may be less contagious than Delta (probably fair to say they are “similar” given the confidence limits here), based on SAR being about the same:
Will the same analysis apply to BA.5? (I would guess it’s about as transmissible as original Omicron, but of course has significant advantages, so has taken over.)
Mostly the Omicron wave showed the efficacy of various NPIs and what relaxing them (not talking about mandates here, talking about personal measures and compliance rates) would have caused if we’d tried that before vaccine availability.
Will the same analysis apply to BA.5? (I would guess it’s about as transmissible as original Omicron, but of course has significant advantages, so has taken over.)
Mostly the Omicron wave showed the efficacy of various NPIs and what relaxing them (not talking about mandates here, talking about personal measures and compliance rates) would have caused if we’d tried that before vaccine availability.
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scottf200
Well-Known Member
Curious ... as I must have missed this (symptomatic fast) -- this is good for Paxlovid (5 day) and just to know if a family member was exposed so they can be isolated.
"People today are becoming symptomatic VERY fast - a day or two post-exposure
Very different from before when symptoms started seven days post exposure, after peak virus was reached
Early symptoms now reflect immunity starting and ramping up, rather than virus harming."
"People today are becoming symptomatic VERY fast - a day or two post-exposure
Very different from before when symptoms started seven days post exposure, after peak virus was reached
Early symptoms now reflect immunity starting and ramping up, rather than virus harming."
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I wonder if it just increases the chances of a rebound infection? Maybe there's an optimal time to start Paxlovid to activate immune system enough to avoid a rebound.
A coworker asked if they should come to a meeting tomorrow, now on day 14 of positive antigen tests (very faint now). Hopefully he was joking. I wonder how much spread takes place because people are following the CDC's 5 day guideline.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
A couple tweets into it: " Just so we are all on the same page: THIS IS ONE OF THE LEAD CANDIDATE FOR FALL 2022 BOOSTERS. I’ll explain more in regards to mRNA-1273.222 (BA.4/BA.5) below. "
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Some news I saw made me check this again today and the latest week as finally been updated.
65.0% - BA.5
17.3% - BA.2.12.1
16.3% - BA.4 (prev week 16.1%)
65.0% - BA.5
17.3% - BA.2.12.1
16.3% - BA.4 (prev week 16.1%)
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
BA.5 is ripping through the office. Finally, herd immunity; it’s great! Wastewater numbers rapidly increasing in San Diego.
The 3 days on, 4 days at home schedule seems to break the outbreak cycle, thank God for 2-day serial intervals.
I am impervious sitting at my desk in an N95 mask which I drop only briefly to take a drink while exhaling, then replace. They work 100% of the time AFAICT.
My friend and I are conducting a challenge study where he wears no mask at the rock-climbing gym while I wear an N95 (mine is vented of course since no one is wearing masks).
My next post will probably be one saying I have COVID, lol.
Big company party at the vineyard on Friday; hoping that will provide more herd immunity. I will wear my mask as a control, and will not take the provided buses, lol.
Definitely seems like BA.5 is dominated by first infections worldwide. So this should help reduce impacts of further waves (unless a variant with significant immune escape, similar to the Omicron jump, arises). It’s good that Omicron has remained fairly stable so far; Omicron infection appears to give good protection against all Omicron variants (maybe 80% or better it seems). Most of what we are seeing is vaccinated Omicron-naive people continuing to relax restrictions with a virus variant which escapes vaccination protection (against infection) even better than BA.1. And of course a bunch of reinfections of unvaccinated people.
The 3 days on, 4 days at home schedule seems to break the outbreak cycle, thank God for 2-day serial intervals.
I am impervious sitting at my desk in an N95 mask which I drop only briefly to take a drink while exhaling, then replace. They work 100% of the time AFAICT.
My friend and I are conducting a challenge study where he wears no mask at the rock-climbing gym while I wear an N95 (mine is vented of course since no one is wearing masks).
My next post will probably be one saying I have COVID, lol.
Big company party at the vineyard on Friday; hoping that will provide more herd immunity. I will wear my mask as a control, and will not take the provided buses, lol.
Definitely seems like BA.5 is dominated by first infections worldwide. So this should help reduce impacts of further waves (unless a variant with significant immune escape, similar to the Omicron jump, arises). It’s good that Omicron has remained fairly stable so far; Omicron infection appears to give good protection against all Omicron variants (maybe 80% or better it seems). Most of what we are seeing is vaccinated Omicron-naive people continuing to relax restrictions with a virus variant which escapes vaccination protection (against infection) even better than BA.1. And of course a bunch of reinfections of unvaccinated people.
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It looks like I was exposed again, though I didn't even get the least bit sick. My partner was sick for about 6 hours a few weeks ago. She didn't think it was COVID, but I talked her into both of us getting antibody tests yesterday. I got my results and I'm positive with a higher level of ab than back in January a month after I had Omicron BA.1. I don't know what her levels are, she won't be home until this evening. Back in January her ab levels were much higher than mine, so I expect hers will be high again.
A person can get Omicron again, though at least in our household it was milder the second time around.
It also looks like long COVID is possible with Omicron. Someone we know got Omicron in late winter and she has bad long COVID from it. She's in pretty bad shape, constant aches and pains and no energy.
A person can get Omicron again, though at least in our household it was milder the second time around.
It also looks like long COVID is possible with Omicron. Someone we know got Omicron in late winter and she has bad long COVID from it. She's in pretty bad shape, constant aches and pains and no energy.
I searched the group and didn't see this. It's an article from Fortune about a study of IQ after severe COVID infection.
Severe COVID can lower your IQ by 10 points, study suggests
Severe COVID can lower your IQ by 10 points, study suggests
Patients who experience severe COVID could suffer mental impairment equivalent to losing 10 IQ points, according to a new study conducted by researchers at the University of Cambridge and Imperial College London.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Not a fan of how this study was performed. The sample size is small (46 patients), and there was no control group for people on a ventilator of similar timeframe without COVID (we KNOW for fact vent usage decreases IQ - we call it "vent head" in the hospital).
Basically, don't draw a lot of conclusions from this study. The quality of it is akin to those promoting certain remedies for COVID which shall not be mentioned.
Just a remainder, wear your mask...
(Just thought the picture was funny)
(Just thought the picture was funny)
My wife told me she saw a 22 yo on a vent in the ICU today with COVID and multi-organ failure. Unvaccinated and worked as a camp councilor. Cases that severe are rare in her hospital but ABC News tonight is saying that deaths are creeping up nationwide. Up 10% in the past week.
WHO advises against fluvoxamine, colchicine for COVID-19
"People shouldn't take the drugs colchicine and fluvoxamine to treat mild to moderate COVID-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) is warning.
The antidepressant drug fluvoxamine (Luvox) and the gout drug colchicine are commonly used and inexpensive drugs that have received considerable interest as potential COVID-19 treatments.
However, there is insufficient evidence that either drug improves important outcomes for patients, according to a WHO report produced by a panel of experts and recently published online in The BMJ.
Fluvoxamine should only be used in clinical trials, the WHO report advised, based on data from three randomized controlled trials involving more than 2,000 patients.
The organization strongly advised against using colchicine at all, based on data from seven clinical trials involving nearly 16,500 patients.
After reviewing the evidence, the WHO panel concluded that almost all well-informed patients should choose not to take either drug for COVID-19.
Previously, the WHO has strongly recommended the use of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir in treating COVID-19. It has also issued conditional recommendations for sotrovimab, remdesivir and molnupiravir for high-risk patients with non-severe COVID-19.
For patients with severe COVID-19, the WHO strongly recommends corticosteroids, with the addition of IL-6 receptor blockers or baricitinib, the panel said in a journal news release.
But it advises against the use of convalescent plasma, ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 patients, no matter how severe their disease."
------------------------
The up-to-date WHO recommendations for treatments are here:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3379
"People shouldn't take the drugs colchicine and fluvoxamine to treat mild to moderate COVID-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) is warning.
The antidepressant drug fluvoxamine (Luvox) and the gout drug colchicine are commonly used and inexpensive drugs that have received considerable interest as potential COVID-19 treatments.
However, there is insufficient evidence that either drug improves important outcomes for patients, according to a WHO report produced by a panel of experts and recently published online in The BMJ.
Fluvoxamine should only be used in clinical trials, the WHO report advised, based on data from three randomized controlled trials involving more than 2,000 patients.
The organization strongly advised against using colchicine at all, based on data from seven clinical trials involving nearly 16,500 patients.
After reviewing the evidence, the WHO panel concluded that almost all well-informed patients should choose not to take either drug for COVID-19.
Previously, the WHO has strongly recommended the use of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir in treating COVID-19. It has also issued conditional recommendations for sotrovimab, remdesivir and molnupiravir for high-risk patients with non-severe COVID-19.
For patients with severe COVID-19, the WHO strongly recommends corticosteroids, with the addition of IL-6 receptor blockers or baricitinib, the panel said in a journal news release.
But it advises against the use of convalescent plasma, ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 patients, no matter how severe their disease."
------------------------
The up-to-date WHO recommendations for treatments are here:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3379
scottf200
Well-Known Member
"With respect to reported COVID-19 deaths, the world overall is in a much better spot than one year ago"
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Interesting but not surprising that New Zealand and Australia are way worse off (than a year ago). Looks like New Zealand is up to 1/10th the mortality of the US. The vaccine is not perfect for sure. But, seems like it cuts deaths by a factor of 10 (obviously not everyone has had it, but also presumably a decent number of these deaths were unvaccinated….I looked it up a while back I think it was 40% or something unvaccinated deaths)."With respect to reported COVID-19 deaths, the world overall is in a much better spot than one year ago"
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