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Crazy low residuals?

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This is a good summary. EVs are looking like a poor option for private buyers. Nearly all the tax incentives for them are gone, or will go soon, and the public charging infrastructure is still inadequate. The only real area of growth in EVs now is business users where the 2% BIK is a big draw. Without that, EVs would be as hard to sell as sun cream in Siberia.

In fact, I’m increasingly of the view that EVs might not be the dominant form of personal transport in 10 years that many thought they would be back in the early days. Biofuels are getting big investment now and I think they could offer a better option than EVs, if only because the CO2 from EV manufacture is still much higher than for ICE, and that’s ignoring the environmental and community damage caused by Lithium mining.
EV not dominant, while no new ICEs in UK after 2030??
infrastructure inadequate?! it is loads there.. I am yet to use non-tesla DC charger...
 
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I wouldn't run a EV without a home charger. Home chargers (even granny ones) aren't an option for a significant number of people.

As great as EVs are from a quality of life point of view for pottering around (no need to warm them up, the ability to warm them up on schedule etc without an engine running so they're nice and toasty on the school run, much simpler in terms of maintenance, etc) if you don't have the opportunity/access to charge them reliably then they aren't viable really. A little dinky ICE car will probably do 2 weeks of school runs etc before needing to fill up, which can be done anywhere.

The government are nowhere near close to providing a practical way for people without garages, driveways, etc to charge their cars. Until that happens then they are going to remain "privileged".
 
I wouldn't run a EV without a home charger. Home chargers (even granny ones) aren't an option for a significant number of people.

As great as EVs are from a quality of life point of view for pottering around (no need to warm them up, the ability to warm them up on schedule etc without an engine running so they're nice and toasty on the school run, much simpler in terms of maintenance, etc) if you don't have the opportunity/access to charge them reliably then they aren't viable really. A little dinky ICE car will probably do 2 weeks of school runs etc before needing to fill up, which can be done anywhere.

The government are nowhere near close to providing a practical way for people without garages, driveways, etc to charge their cars. Until that happens then they are going to remain "privileged".
except the dinky ICE cars of which you speak are being banned but don't worry I am sure by 2030 the govt will provide everyone with off street parking and or the ability to charge on street at every lamppost for a similar cost per kwh as those of us with a drive enjoy.
/S
 
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The only real area of growth in EVs now is business users where the 2% BIK is a big draw

UK Government seems to have decided that is the cheapest way of encouraging takeup. When those cars move to 2nd hand market, 3 years in?, we'll see whether there are any takers. Maybe government think infrastrcuture etc. will have improved by then.

I’m increasingly of the view that EVs might not be the dominant form of personal transport in 10 years

Government won't meet CO2 targets with any form of ICE. They are going to have to bring in Carbon tax, of some sort, at some point and that will seal-the-deal on EVs. Bu that is assuming that it will be more attractive to own one then compared to now. The less well off will get screwed over in that move semper idem

Biofuels are getting big investment now

yeah, Oil companies want business as usual and are looking for loopholes - that's semper idem too! Bio fuels will put pressure on food crops / prices, and government will come under pressure to regulate that ... mind you, if everyone stopped eating meat there would be loads of land available for crops like biofuels

the environmental and community damage caused by Lithium mining

Australia produces 50% of world's lithium, and I don't hear them complaining - whereas they do about Oil refining in their country.

In places like Chile that needs sorting out, and I expect that pressure will be brought to bare ... Oil has had 100 years to solve such problems, and they muck up fairly frequently too.
 
EVs are looking like a poor option for private buyers.

I thought everyone was feeling that the second hand market was pricing their EVs too cheaply? Seems like there are some bargains to be had. Business buyers have always driven new car sales whereas many/most private buyers look for value in vehicles 2 or 3 years old... and that's exactly what they'll find by the look of it.
 
This is a good summary. EVs are looking like a poor option for private buyers.

??? I didn't realise the majority people choose cars based on BIK tax etc.

Our Tesla was ordered in 2016, it works as well now as a family car as before, infact with the number of SCs appearing everywhere I cannot remember the last time I used ABRP. The plan is to keep it as our main family car till at least 2025, but probably as long as physically possible.

Our Lexus IS300H was bought in 2015, we haven't replaced it with an EV because it dose 5000 miles a year and never breaks down, so financially makes no sense to replace.

With the cost of used EVs finally coming down to a sensible level, I would say now is a great time to buy a used EV to own. Whilst I have no interest in buying ANY new car for a long time to come, I don't quite understand the reason NOT to buy another new EV?
 
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??? I didn't realise the majority people choose cars based on BIK tax etc.
They probably don't, but a large number of the current crop of EV company car drivers do and they make up most of the new EV sales.
The BIK saving on a EV can be in the order of £5000 - £8000 per year compared to an equivalently priced ICE. That is a not inconsiderable incentive to go electric.
 
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Not if it’s designed to the latest emissions standards (e.g. Euro VI etc).
Of course it does. Euro 6 is better than Euro 5 but not some miracle standard, Nox and PM2.5 are still very present in those tail pipe emissions amongst the less harmful stuff.

The Nox is significantly worse when you throw in the fabled hydrogen combustion that’s starting to gain traction.

Air quality in cities is getting better but it’s not going to get good enough until combustion is largely removed from the roads and buildings (oil/gas boilers and log burners).
 
Not if it’s designed to the latest emissions standards (e.g. Euro VI etc).

Nope

Screenshot 2023-07-03 at 22.50.20.png


Source: https://content.tfl.gov.uk/in-service-emissions-performance-of-euro-6vi-vehicles.pdf
 
Air quality in cities is getting better but it’s not going to get good enough until combustion is largely removed from the roads and buildings (oil/gas boilers and log burners).
I might have gone electric but there’s no way I’m giving up either of my log burners. Logs from my own wood means heating and hot water is virtually free. As good as solar without the enormous install costs.
 
Yes. Been that way for at least a couple of years. Salary sacrifice schemes are hugely popular because of the tax saving they offer.

And we must bear in mind that this is the case across the board. A quick Google:

“Of course, the corporate sector has always made up a large proportion of new car sales, and these figures may not come as a great shock to industry insiders. In total, so-called 'fleet' sales made up 53 percent of all new car registrations last year, while private customers accounted for just 44 percent of the market.29 Mar 2021”

 
Agree with above, massive savings and incentivise for medium to large businesses, and the only reason we went over to electric.
big business tend to lease cars. This has also appealed to any cash rich small business's. Not only the Bik Saving for the director/owners but also the ability to not pay corporation tax up front if you buy the car out right.
 
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They probably don't, but a large number of the current crop of EV company car drivers do and they make up most of the new EV sales.
The BIK saving on a EV can be in the order of £5000 - £8000 per year compared to an equivalently priced ICE. That is a not inconsiderable incentive to go electric.
but what it means, that in 3-4 years the second hand market will be flooded with 304 year old teslas and other EVs.

and if residuals are low, it will make soooo much more sense to buy used one!
 
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but what it means, that in 3-4 years the second hand market will be flooded with 304 year old teslas and other EVs.

and if residuals are low, it will make soooo much more sense to buy used one!
My Tesla's were the first new cars I ever bought and If used prices remain anything like they are now then my current car will be the last new car I buy.