Off Shore
Off Topic Member
That seems to happen every time the stock goes down. Elon's got (quite) a few fair-weather friends here.
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I think what is going on is that some people have to talk to think.
They have to see how it sounds.
Smart people swing trade Tesla. I don't swing trade Tesla.
The swing traders amplify support when they get back it. So they are like "just kidding" friends.
I still think: the employees should get the base car with the full credit, if that is what they want.
(And that Tesla longs make the most money if Tesla chooses to reward employees with the product of their work. Shorts, and short sighted longs benefit if employees do not see the fruits of their labor with the full tax credit at the $35K price.
BTW, I think that getting the $35k car to employees is Elon's plan as a Christmas gift this year. A lot of people rebalance their portfolios that time of year, so it will help the stock price, too, for all those who think that money trumps people.)
Let's see how it plays out next July and December.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Too many people trade on emotions instead of logic.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't see how that would be possible, full credit will be gone by Christmas. What really rewards employees and longs is for Tesla to become a self sustaining viable business.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Do the vast majority of employees that want the $35k car have significantly more than $3750 in Federal tax liability? Or would half the credit be sufficient? My guess is most of these folks are earning closer to entry level Tesla wage of $17/hr than $100M/year.
If JB wants the $35k car is it ok if he pays an extra $3750 in Federal tax?
Reciprocity
Active Member
I know you understand this Rob, but this response is for those having trouble wraping their heads around the amount of money you need to make to pay $7500 in taxes. Here are two examples. A single person making $50,000 and a married couple with 2 kids making $100,000 with a mortgage:
Important to note that neither of these profiles include any kind of 401k or IRA tax savings which would lower the amount of income that is taxable by however much you save. A married couple could save up to $18000, tax free with a 401k and a the single person above could save 5500 with an IRA or 9000 with a 401k, which would further lower their tax liability by roughly 13% of those amounts. I think its safe to say that if you are a family making 6 figures, you are contributing to some kind of retirement savings. There are also additional child care tax credits if the family of 4 qualifies, but im not a tax account so I couldn't really get to that level of detail. My guess is that their real taxes due would be less then $5000 if prepared by a professional. So you need to make $120k+ to really qualify for the full credit in your traditional family of 4. The single person would probably need to make north of 70k if you consider some kind of retirement savings.
Edit: For this calculation I used this site: Estimate Your 2018 Tax Refund with the 2017 Return Calculator
Its not a great calculator but it was quick and easy.
We don't need to completely guess.
There are a whole set of people who never buy a new car - most of my friends. I don't know if the folks in entry level jobs made a reservation, because the math did not work at $27.5K. A friend who works beside me just bought a used Honda minivan with 100,000 miles for $7000... We have worked together for 30 years.
Anyway, you can work 80 hours a week for about 7 months. So let's say 60 hours a week at $20 an hour. 2000 normal hours a year and 1000 time and a half hours a year.
So that is $40,000 in regular wages and $30,000 in over time wages. That is $70,000 a year.
The federal tax liability is $8699.50.
$70000 Federal Tax Calculator 2018/2019 | 2017 Tax Refund Calculator
It looks like they could use the full California rebate/credit, as well.
Reciprocity
Active Member
That appears to be withholding and does not take into account peoples personal tax rates which will differ based on their situation. For example, health insurance fees are not taxed, retirement savings and so on.. If they have children. There are still a lot of tax reducing things that would impact that.
I think you are also drastically over estimating how much overtime people will work. Businesses are not in business to pay 1.5x wages. They hire more people and pay 1.05x wages and overtime is only allowed when there are issues.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
For safety reasons factory employees are not working time and a half anymore.
Clerical does not get 50% overtime hours.
Unless there is something extremely unusual, from reading articles on the subject,my guess is 45 hrs tops per week.
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Esme Es Mejor
Member
I don’t understand those people— I get excited when the stock goes on sale. I bought at 308 and 295 on the post-ER dip. If you believe, as I do, in the long-term upward trajectory of TSLA and Tesla, these dips are just extra money.
Options and margins make the dips painful.
Purchased shares, as you are doing, allows one to ride out the bad times with less issues, but require much more up-front capital.
It’s the leverage that options and margins provide that make the dips more painful, and exaggerate the gains.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I can only imagine what Germans that are agitating for a 28 work week( for proper work-life balance) think of Americans working 45-50 hrs a week?
Slaves to corporate America?
Ulmo
Active Member
In a way, it shows why electric cars took longer to come to market. We identified a direction humanity must go in, and then other interests fought that with lies, but if they had instead profited from it (like Tesla is), then they would be doing well, and humanity would be closer to health.
I do see this a little bit different: Elon is doing what he can to stop Global Warming. The cause of Global Warming are fossil fuels. 1/4 to 1/3 of fossil fuels are used in transportation. another 1/3 is used in generating electricity (rough guess). So Elon is changing these two Global Warming sources to non-fossil fuels i.e. solar panels, wind turbines and battery storage to make these work. He is using the tools of capitalism i.e. 'business' to achieve these goals.
Exxon is running a business. They knew about the deadly consequences of their business since the 1970s, but they had to 'run a business' so they could not act on their knowledge. All fossil fuel business' are operating on the same principle: profit is the only motivation. As far as I can tell Elon does not operate on that principle. He uses the profits to further his goals.
So, getting a 'business person' at the helm of Tesla would be just as devastating as Exxon & al.
Ulmo
Active Member
I can easily super vastly improve on what the Germans are agitating for and what the Americans already do:I can only imagine what Germans that are agitating for a 28 work week( for proper work-life balance) think of Americans working 45-50 hrs a week?
Slaves to corporate America?
If it weren't for religious impediments, I would be a stronger advocate of the 4 day week, with 3 days work and 1 day off (with simple rule that no worker ever work more than 3 days in a row, period). The main benefit is better rested workers with less compounded physical and mental drain than the 7 day (5 work + 2 off) week, also avoiding the 5+2 hammer effect of an overly-long weekend hardening those 5 day harms, and a toxic effect of infinite-seeming 5 day work weeks that just kill workers faster than something less insane like working only 3 days in a row.
For planning, the nice thing about such a binary compatible work week is that you can evenly distribute the day off through only 4 unsick people and have 100% even coverage of the days, with 3 unsick people working every day. If you want 24 hours a day, then you only need 12 unsick people. Of course, putting in sick people, people with other days off, etc., requires more, but spread over more workers or spread over a more variable work day, you can have about 1 in 4 be substitutes, and have them doubled-up when no one is sick. So, about 15 people for 24 hours, or 5 people for all days one shift.
If we consider that each worker is working similar number of hours per day per worker in the 4 day (3 on 1 off) week as they do in a 7 day week with 5 on 2 off, then we get to some simple math:
(3/4) / (5/7) = 1.05
That's 5% more hours working per worker in the 4 day (3 on 1 off) week compared to the 7 day (5 on 2 off) week.
Legally, it's not too hard, since there is such a thing as an 8 day work week in the federal and state systems; at least there was back when I was driving trucks circa 2001 (they may have changed). 4 day weeks shoehorn into 8 day "legal" weeks simply by putting two weeks into one week (legally speaking). (Of course, your internal week rules would be more stringent: no worker would ever be allowed to work more than 3 days in a row. All of your internal calendars, communications, scheduling, etc., would be with the 4 day week; legally, the lawyers would just run a computer program for the 8 day week to handle edge cases that basically never come up if you never rotate a worker's day off, and always leave the day off the same for every worker, and always enforce the no more than 3 days in a row working rule.)
In terms of rest potential, the nearest day off in a 4 day week with 3 days on work and 1 off day off work is always 1.5 days away: you are already benefiting from the rest of x days ago while about to rest again in y days, where (x+y)=3, (x+y)/2=1.5.
7 day weeks with 5 contiguous working days and 2 days off are treacherously awful in comparison: (x+y)=5, (x+y)/2=2.5. 2.5 / 1.5 = 1.6666. 66% further from rest, but that lack of rest compounds once your body is worn out, so days 4 and 5 (of working) are not made better by day 6 (off day)*; they are merely awful, body draining, health attacking, work damaging days.
Worse, in a 7 day week, you are battered to hell for 5 days, then put to safari for a WHOLE WEEKEND, your body then getting into a state of not wanting to ever work again by the 2nd day off, and then the whole fiasco is REPEATED AGAIN!!!
The 4 day work week's best benefit is never making someone work more than 3 days in a row. They come to work more rested, more healthy, fewer mistakes, less brain damage, less problems, more efficiency. The fact you get a 5% bonus more hours out of each worker is just amazing considering the other benefits; I was worried when I first dreamed up the 4 day work week that it would actually cost hours, but in fact, it adds hours! Win win win!
(Final version: this message seems proofread and correct.)
* I always found it helpful to number the week with Sunday being 0 and Saturday being 6, since that neatly offers days 1-5 as work days, and you don't have to do awful math to figure out the conversion from week day number to contiguous work day number, since they are simply the same number. I.e., Day 1 = weekday 1 = work day 1. Very easy. Also, math is easy even if you want to add, multiply, subtract, etc. I suppose in the 4 day week, the same standard would apply, with 0 being a day off and days 1-3 being days on, but since we're evenly distributing the day off for some workers in assembly lines, I suppose you could approach it as either each worker has their own 0 day alignment, or just say that each worker has a different day off alignment. For non-assembly line workers, I suppose you could normalize and synchronize that 0 day is always day off for everyone on the same day, but I don't know how many people would realistically have the same day off, considering that one tool to make the 4 day (3 on 1 off) week compatible with 7 day (5 on 2 off) week workers is to make every position (even engineering, accounting, sales, office, executive, etc.) an evenly distributed day off 4 day week, to have as many people also working when they are needed when the 7 dayers come calling (customers, homogulators, etc.).
P.S., never rotate days off and never rotate shifts; doing either is DEATH! (Maximum frequency of changing shift or day off should be approximately once per year, and even if done only once per year, should always be across days off and in a progressive direction, perhaps over the course of 10 or 30 days or so.) (A minor exception in a spaceship is progressive rotation since humans prefer 25 hour days according to some studies, but that doesn't apply exactly to the 4 day week, and that also messes with biorithyms which do react to sunlight and temperature; that would be easier to program in a spaceship than on a planet. Also, if you aligned such a spaceship day to 25 hours, then it wouldn't be progressive any more; it would merely be a longer day. So, really, no exception.)
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2virgule5
Member
General consensus I don’t know, but 12.000 delivered at the low end, and maybe up to 16.000 is my guess.
Ulmo
Active Member
My proofreading missed something. That should read (new in bold):
Worse, in a 7 day week, you are battered to hell for 5 days, then put to safari for a WHOLE TWO DAY WEEKEND, your body then getting into a state of not wanting to ever work again by the 2nd day off, and then the whole fiasco is REPEATED AGAIN!!!
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