General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jhm]

The problem with public transport sizing is the huge demand around peak times and much lower demand during off peak. Replace public transport with road size, for eg.

Ofcourse if the public transport is running at peak time with 25% occupancy, years after starting service, there is a problem.

BTW, I think the real watershed will be in telecommuting

Yes, peak time capacity is important. If you replaced 100 40-passenger buses with 400 10-person vans, you'd have the same peak capacity. But you would need 400 drivers instead of just 100. UNLESS the vans are autonomous. So autonomy breaks down one of the problems with managing peak loads. In off-peak hours the autonomous vans can take turns charging or getting maintained. There is no need to keep all 400 vans circulating when the demand has fallen from 4000 riders down to 1000 riders. But if you have a fleet of 100 buses instead, you may still need to keep most of those circulating even when demand drops well below 1000 riders. So when demand is at 1000 riders, I'd rather have 200 vans circulating than 100 buses. That's got to be much cheap in terms of wear and tear on vehicles and fuel. But labor costs, if these are to be driven by humans, would tilt the other way.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I've been thinking along these lines too. Reading your comment, it just hit me that the pods didn't par force have to all go park themselves - maybe they could transport goods during off-peak hours. Probably by trailer to cleanly divide spaces, care, and responsibilities.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Any concerns about volume knob wear out service costs?

Twittle constantly to let it know I am there when on AP. Not sure that was the design scenario?

Simple solution...don't use the knobs for nags. Put a little rotational pressure on the wheel. Just as easy, no wear on the knobs.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

There is no doubt that here in the US there is a certain stigma regarding the use of mass transit in many parts of the country. Especially with the love affair we have with suburban living. Unlike most of the rest of the world, as a whole, we just don't like using mass transport for whatever reason. Call it arrogance, call it independence, whatever. It is what it is. Where I think autonomy will have a huge impact here in the states is the ability to truly be a one car family instead of 2,3 or 4.

Imagine the following...

Car takes dad to work and then returns to run mom to the same. It comes home to run child number 1 to school. It comes home to take child number 2 to the local college for classes. It returns home to plug itself in to charge up before it reverses the process to bring everyone home. 1 car payment instead of 4. 1 insurance payment instead of 4. 1 fuel bill instead of 4. The list goes on and on.

I think the average American will see this as a more appealing scenario than taking public transport of any kind. Of course add to this the ability to help pay for itself in the Tesla network when it is not being used by the family and it is another win/win.

Dan

 

[JRP3]

As long as Mom, Dad, and the kids don't all need to be at different places around the same time

 

[winfield100]

OFF Topic
Solar electric, 20 mile range at 20mph (33kph) with 12 hours of sunlight on Lead Acid batteries, 1956 California Plates looks like.
driving on the different side of the road though (suicide doors too!)(and a weird custom PV panel)

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=882155428629080

(hope the link works)

 

[ggr]

Simple solution...don't use the knobs for nags. Put a little rotational pressure on the wheel. Just as easy, no wear on the knobs.

Dan

I find a two-finger pinch on the steering wheel with my elbow resting on my leg is sufficient to keep the nag at bay. It's enough resistance to the little adjustments the car makes by itself to register.

 

[neroden]

Among the more consequential risks to Tesla as it grows is their continuing failures in after-sale service:
1. There are numerous threads here of all Tesla Models waiting many months for spare parts, and shipping defective or wrong parts repetitively. (note: I'm personally invested here. My model 3 is almost four months waiting for correct/undamaged parts. Thus far six individual cases involving three parts have been delivered incorrectly or damaged, always after a wait. Check the threads, lots of cases. If this is not fixed with alacrity, class actions will ensue.
2. Famously later service visits in various places, notably Norway. This seems to be improving, but more slowly than deliveries.
3. Delivery of vehicles with missing parts. Several cases. Model 3 Performance and dual motor badging plus spoiler. Random missing items for others.

The list goes on...

How much of this will be tolerated before the mess hits the share price?

Very good question. The short-sellers are completely ignoring this mess, bizarrely.

I think it'll be tolerated until there are enough competing electric cars for sale. When that happens? I'm watching closely. So far there are effectively none. Rumor is that there will be one or two in 2019 (from VW Group.) That's probably not enough.

 

[AZRI11]

Very good question. The short-sellers are completely ignoring this mess, bizarrely.

I think it'll be tolerated until there are enough competing electric cars for sale. When that happens? I'm watching closely. So far there are effectively none. Rumor is that there will be one or two in 2019 (from VW Group.) That's probably not enough.

I had an accident 3 weeks ago. Passenger side. Rear quarter, front fender and both doors. Ouch, two panels need to be replaced, and two can be repaired. Car is drivable and doors open and close. Live in R.I. parts were ordered on the 11th, and arrived on the 26th. Because of holiday this coming week, it won't be in for repairs until the 7th of January. Should only take a week. Manager of auto body shop went on a 30 minute rant complaining about tesla parts service. It has just started to get better, but he usually has to escalate to get results. Had another model 3 in when I went in to show my damage, and it was all done but for a measly rear parking light two weeks and counting for the part and needed to have a software reupload . And worse of all when any of the ultrasonic sensors have to be replaced, or detached and reattached they need tesla mobile repair service to be reprogrammed. Model s and x can be reprogrammed by a tech that works at the auto body shop. Why isn't Tesla allowing model 3 software release to auto body shops? Only car that he was aware of that is done this way. Accident was my fault, no one hurt. I probably deserved the rant provided by the manager.

 

[ggies07]

It does? Shoot......glad I don't have an ICE anymore!

Warming Up Your Car in the Cold Just Harms the Engine

 

[brian45011]

For 2019 (or 2018 for that matter), children don't come into it AFAICT,

(Disclaimer: I am not a tax professional. And apparently this posted before I added the disclaimer, when the site was having trouble.)

What You Should Know About the Child Tax Credit in 2018
Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) the following new child tax credit rules will take place in 2018:

• The Child Tax Credit under 2018 tax reform is worth up to $2,000 per qualifying child. The age cut-off remains at 17 (the child must be under 17 at the end of the year for taxpayers to claim the credit).
• The refundable portion of the credit is limited to $1,400. This amount will be adjusted for inflation after 2018.
• The earned income threshold for the refundable credit is lowered to $2,500.
• The beginning credit phaseout for the child tax credit increases in 2018 to $200,000 ($400,000 for joint filers). The phaseout also applies to the new $500 credit for other dependents.
• The child must have a valid SSN to qualify for the $2,000 Child Tax Credit.

New Child Tax Credit: Changes For 2018 | H&R Block

Children also could "come into it" for the the Child and Dependent Care Credit.

Topic No. 602 Child and Dependent Care Credit | Internal Revenue Service

If anyone wants to learn more about individual taxation while helping other people, check out IRS's VITA (Volunteer Income Tax Assistance) and TCE (Tax Counseling for the Elderly) programs. AARP provides (awkward) software and training for volunteers. There is always a need for volunteers willing to work in the evenings and on week-ends.

 

[22522]

Simple solution...don't use the knobs for nags. Put a little rotational pressure on the wheel. Just as easy, no wear on the knobs.

Dan

Thank you for the encouragement...

But are hundreds of thousands of drivers going to hear it?

Note: the anti-nag threshold seems fine on the model S. On the three it is a little high. Wonder if it is programmed as a torque and the smaller steering wheel raises the force threshold on the rim.

Will try the two finger approach, but I'm at 10 and 2 and mostly happy with the path. Light reins...

 

[pz1975]

Thank you for the encouragement...

But are hundreds of thousands of drivers going to hear it?

Note: the anti-nag threshold seems fine on the model S. On the three it is a little high. Wonder if it is programmed as a torque and the smaller steering wheel raises the force threshold on the rim.

Will try the two finger approach, but I'm at 10 and 2 and mostly happy with the path. Light reins...

I just click the right scroll wheel on the steering wheel up one click when it nags. It doesn’t change anything with the driving because I always have the maximum speed at the maximum and scrolling up is asking for a higher speed and it doesn’t allow it. I suppose this (one click up every 1-2 minutes of autopilot use) could cause a slow wearing out of that knob, but if it needs to be replaced once in 5-10 years I can live with that. I find this much simpler than trying to move the steering wheel just the right amount every time.

 

[dm28997]

You may or not know that simply changing the volume or following distance also works.

 

[pz1975]

You may or not know that simply changing the volume or following distance also works.

Yeah I know that but scrolling up on the right wheel doesn't change anything in the car (vs. adjusting the volume) and is "easier" to do than clicking right/left. I have tried all the options and I find that the best and easiest one to turn off the nag. Whatever - this is all just nit-picky stuff anyways.

 

[DurandalAI]

Well, I've been purposefully avoiding TMC forums for a while as I was becoming a bit obsessive about checking for replies, Twitter seemed easier for me to check for some reason. We didn't hit the $400 SP I was anticipating at year's end, I attribute this 75% to the Macro. I took a bath like just about everyone else did this month, but being up ~31% for the year isn't half bad. I'm hoping for / anticipating a recovery in mid January after the whole shutdown business blows over and we get some good delivery numbers. I'm expecting a return to levels above $360 after Q4 financials are released.

 

[Ulmo]

I'm glad the range above 200 miles is going to be filled in. The cluster of cars below 150 miles couldn't even get me to work and back many weeks, and below 100 miles most weeks. Since I have no charging at work (bad), I would have to stop someplace in the morning or during massive rush hour afternoon, losing more time in later heavier traffic, and having less sleep either way.

Yes, I often say the best way to charge electric vehicles is when the sun is shining at our work parking lots, but right now, we need vehicles that can bring us to work and back when the boss wants us there, not when we want us there. Back when the electric cars were being bought by wealthy business owners, retirees, and granola locals, that didn't matter, but for it to expand into normal day to day commuters, we need cars that can handle our needs. Regardless of all the propaganda, those vehicles will finally be coming to market more and more. We already see heavy adoption of Tesla Model 3 to fill that gap. As used Teslas come on the market more and more, and other competitors also bring such vehicles to market, that will get more and more solved.

 

[Ulmo]

Well. I felt like downvoting information that was passed on didn't seem right, so I gave it an "informational".

That having been said, it appears that information is the aftermath of somebody's dream in graph form...

I presume it is full of announced vehicle programs, not all of which will come to market. The issue is that we don't exactly know which ones will come to market. Some are more obvious than others, but we never know exactly.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:
And with this we close the 2018 edition of this thread. Happy New Year to all and you may resume in the "2019" version.