When I reserved my Tesla MS, in 2011, oil was at nearly 140$ a barrel. Together with some tax incentives in Belgium, buying a Tesla made sense not only ecologically, but also economically (plus the fun/smart-factor, of course ), compared to, say, buying a similarly loaded BMW 5-series (largely because electricity was so much cheaper than gasoline). At the same time, the IMF was predicting oil prices would be around 250$/barrel by 2022 (see this 2012 article).
Today a barrel of oil is at 30$, and 2016 predictions mention 20$, 16$ or even 10$... Of course, when you're filling up at a gas station (for those who remember what that looks like), a liter of gasoline has not become five times cheaper since 2011 (and will obviously not become 14 times cheaper this year), but it is still, anno 2016, a lot cheaper than four years ago! And at the same time electricity prices are rising a lot more than inflation. The result is that charging a VW e-Golf in Europe is now more or less as expensive as filling up the tank of its diesel or gasoline equivalent (which your average VW dealer will sell you for a lot less money)...
I'm not too worried about the Tesla MS or MX not being able to retain their current market share, and I'm also sure regulators will continue to be more and more strict on pollution, certainly in countries/cities where pollution is already very problematic and state regulators have the power and the wish to do something about it (e.g. China, which may well become the largest FEV-country in the next few years, but also the USA, and a lot of countries in Northern and Western Europe).
I am worried, however, about FEV sales in general. I agree with others on this forum that a successful Chevy Bolt (and VW e-Golf and Nissan Leaf etc.) would be much better news for Tesla than a failed Bolt (and failed other FEV's).
But I cannot believe this spectacular evolution of oil prices won't negatively impact FEV sales in the near future. One can buy a Tesla MS or MX out of passion for the ecological/smart/fun-factor, but why would anyone entering a GM dealership buy a Bolt, rather than a way less expensive ICE Chevy?
Your thoughts?
Today a barrel of oil is at 30$, and 2016 predictions mention 20$, 16$ or even 10$... Of course, when you're filling up at a gas station (for those who remember what that looks like), a liter of gasoline has not become five times cheaper since 2011 (and will obviously not become 14 times cheaper this year), but it is still, anno 2016, a lot cheaper than four years ago! And at the same time electricity prices are rising a lot more than inflation. The result is that charging a VW e-Golf in Europe is now more or less as expensive as filling up the tank of its diesel or gasoline equivalent (which your average VW dealer will sell you for a lot less money)...
I'm not too worried about the Tesla MS or MX not being able to retain their current market share, and I'm also sure regulators will continue to be more and more strict on pollution, certainly in countries/cities where pollution is already very problematic and state regulators have the power and the wish to do something about it (e.g. China, which may well become the largest FEV-country in the next few years, but also the USA, and a lot of countries in Northern and Western Europe).
I am worried, however, about FEV sales in general. I agree with others on this forum that a successful Chevy Bolt (and VW e-Golf and Nissan Leaf etc.) would be much better news for Tesla than a failed Bolt (and failed other FEV's).
But I cannot believe this spectacular evolution of oil prices won't negatively impact FEV sales in the near future. One can buy a Tesla MS or MX out of passion for the ecological/smart/fun-factor, but why would anyone entering a GM dealership buy a Bolt, rather than a way less expensive ICE Chevy?
Your thoughts?
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