Thanks for the info.
Unfortunately, you can't really compare your situation with Tesloop. For starters, there is a difference in the rate of battery degradation in charge/discharge cycles in a shorter period of time versus longer. Tesloop puts an average of 17,000 miles a month on their vehicles and go through charge/discharge cycles must more rapidly than the average user. They also had their first battery replacement on their 85D because of higher than expected battery degradation in a short period of time, and I think it was one of the first high mileage Tesla's in such a short period of time, so Tesla was interested in studying it further, probably to help with their R&D in future battery technology. The second battery replacement was because the vehicle experienced a rapid decline in range over a very short period of time (months), and when Tesla diagnosed it, they saw an abnormal balance in the battery pack. I'm sure the publicity helped too since Tesloop was getting a lot of attention for the mileage they were putting on the vehicles.
The threads I've seen of folks that had the vehicle power down before reaching 0 miles or 0% on their displays that ended up having a battery pack replaced was based on Tesla identifying something abnormal, which is covered under the battery warranty. There's also folks that had the same issue but simply had to "re-sync" the battery by doing a few low state of charge to 100% cycles, which has nothing to do with battery healthy but simply resyncing the BMS displayed calculation.
Based on your mileage and age of the car, the battery degradation does seem to be a bit on the high side but not completely unrealistic. The Model 3 battery warranty actually covers battery degradation, but if you look at the details it uses 70% (30% degradation) as their line to determine what's below "normal" within an 8 year period. I can only guess they choose that percentage for a reason. As a side note, most of the lithium-ion industry uses 80% as their measure of the normal life cycle of a lithium-ion battery. In my
previous reply, I listed out some factors (21" wheels, 75 mph average speed) that actually get you close to the 139 miles of actual range, and it's still not taking into account any elevation or head winds, so it seems to make sense. I'm not saying that's good by any means, just trying to look at your situation objectively based on the facts we do have.
A lot of folks will argue there's little difference in charging "strategies", and they're mostly correct in the context of less than 8 years and mileage the average driver will put on their vehicles. However, as we approach 8+ years and/or higher mileages, I suspect this is where that difference becomes more pronounced and recommendations like a 70% SOC from Jeff Dahn start to show their benefits. In no way am I saying this is why your battery degradation is where it's at, but it is a factor to consider for perhaps a future EV if you plan to keep it for 8+ years and drive above the average amount of mileage.
I would be absolutely furious if my car shut down as well with the display saying there's still range left, so I can understand your frustration. I would definitely escalate the issue to, at a minimum, get that issue resolved. As for the battery degradation, I'm just not sure Tesla will provide a warranty replacement unless there's something abnormal such as cells being significantly imbalanced, a sudden/rapid decrease in capacity, etc. Definitely try to pull the BMS data if you can though as it will give you some factual data on what's going on with your batteries.
Best of luck and I hope it all works out for you in the end.