Initial 1000 HW2 cars getting AP software 12/31/16

[Haxster]

So that would mean that they produced up to AP2 HW equipped 24,000 cars.

And then you need to subtract the cars that don't have the "Enhanced Autopilot" option. I assume that they won't be among the 1000 cars getting the AP2 features in the update.

 

[pilotSteve]

Actually I appreciate Tesla's cautious yet rapid release of AP2 software. Better IMO to get field testing of the most needed features (adaptive cruise) and limited subsets of the autopilot (auto steer, collision warning, etc.) rather than traditional "hold everything back until QA department approves". With lives at stake and property damage possible I agree with any limitations (max operating speed, etc.) Tesla might impose, knowing they will remove limitations as quickly as real world experience shows its safety/quality level is acceptable.

 

[Haxster]

I seem to recall that by the end of 2016, the statement by Tesla was that AP2 would be at least as feature-rich as AP1.

On the other hand, I don't want to bet our safety on something that's not ready.

A little economic analysis:
Enhanced Autopilot costs a rather stiff $5K plus tax. After three years, it's probably worth $1,400 in resale (just a wild guess based on likely technology advances and forward looking depreciation patterns). So we're losing about $100/per month in value for every month it's delayed. It's actually worse when cars are newer; which they are.

 

[HX_Guy]

Well we can guess based on what they have told us:

• They run about 2,400 cars a week.
• AP2 cars started production about 10/10
• There have been 12 weeks since 10/10.
• There was 2 weeks of downtime at the factory in Q4.

So that would mean that they produced up to AP2 HW equipped 24,000 cars.

That's capacity though, but did they sell/build at capacity?

According to this they sold 3950 cars between Oct and Nov (Dec numbers not yet available).

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[techmaven]

That's capacity though, but did they sell/build at capacity?

According to this they sold 3950 cars between Oct and Nov (Dec numbers not yet available).

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

That's U.S. only, and estimates at that.

 

[HX_Guy]

I guess for some reason I assumed the 1000 would all be in the US.

Regardless, even worldwide I don't think it can be anywhere near 24,000 built since 10/10/16...and then as pointed out its cars with Enhanced Autopilot only.

 

[ecarfan]

Well, my Tesla may not be a navel vessel, but I understand that it does float.

It is definitely not a navel vessel, as Teslas are not self absorbed but are outgoing and curious about the world around them.

 

[techmaven]

I guess for some reason I assumed the 1000 would all be in the US.

Regardless, even worldwide I don't think it can be anywhere near 24,000 built since 10/10/16...and then as pointed out its cars with Enhanced Autopilot only.

I would guess that they built about 10 week's worth that made it to customers, roughly 2,000 a week, so around 20,000 in the field. Plus or minus a thousand or two. As for the take rate, I would guess it is over 50% for EAP or FSD. That's still quite a few vehicles.

 

[boonedocks]

This is very disappointing, this whole time Elon was hinting that it would be release for everyone. But instead is only for 1000 cars and in a very limited capacity. Not cool in my opinion. If this was the plan then it should have been communicated before now.

And exactly why I postponed replacing my 2015 AP1 car with an AP2 car before year end. Free supercharging isn't worth near as much as a functioning car delivered with the features promised. After the resent butchering of AP1 I won't be one buying on promises from Tesla anymore.....

 

[LeoNot]

Actually I appreciate Tesla's cautious yet rapid release of AP2 software. Better IMO to get field testing of the most needed features (adaptive cruise) and limited subsets of the autopilot (auto steer, collision warning, etc.) rather than traditional "hold everything back until QA department approves". With lives at stake and property damage possible I agree with any limitations (max operating speed, etc.) Tesla might impose, knowing they will remove limitations as quickly as real world experience shows its safety/quality level is acceptable.

Totally agree. Control software is hard. Life-critical software is harder. I simply hope that Elon's not pushed people SO hard as to increase the error rate.

P100D ... waiting, patiently, but excitedly....

Leo

 

[ZeroDarkSilver]

And exactly why I postponed replacing my 2015 AP1 car with an AP2 car before year end. Free supercharging isn't worth near as much as a functioning car delivered with the features promised. After the resent butchering of AP1 I won't be one buying on promises from Tesla anymore.....

Me too. I'm too reliant on AP1 now to give it up for even one day, much less potentially months. Free supercharging is nice but it's just a small cherry on top in the grand scheme of things. A family member upgraded to AP2 in December, so will wait to see how well it works on theirs before thinking about upgrading mine. Also waiting to see if they move the AP instrument cluster display up to an AR HUD projection in Mar/Apr as part of the Model 3 final reveal.

 

[polymathic]

Meanwhile.... still not a single TMC member coming forward with receiving the new update.... By now I was hoping to hear something. Europe is already in 2017, so no go there. And only a few minutes left until 2017 on the East Coast. I bet the 1000 cars will be in CA, where the reboot on freeze issue is unlikely, and where there is still a few hours left to deliver on the December promise.

 

[Discoducky]

The critical factor will be how quickly this rolls out to everyone. I'm guessing a month. And then how quickly they ramp up speeds for autosteer and other features. Right now we have just one data point.

 

[oktane]

What recourse do I have if parity or fsd is not achieved?

 

[andrewket]

I guess for some reason I assumed the 1000 would all be in the US.

Regardless, even worldwide I don't think it can be anywhere near 24,000 built since 10/10/16...and then as pointed out its cars with Enhanced Autopilot only.

I wouldn't be surprised if the first cars are all near Fremont. Tesla has done that before. Keep the cars close to HQ in case there is a problem. Of course I'm hoping for the best being in Virginia

 

[bswn1]

I think the 1,000 will be US cars, but not sure. If they do this increases our chances to ~ 1 in 5 of getting the update if they're randomly updating regular users' cars, which they probably aren't.

 

[sdorn]

I think the 1,000 will be US cars, but not sure. If they do this increases our chances to ~ 1 in 5 of getting the update if they're randomly updating regular users' cars, which they probably aren't.

Pretty sure if you haven't seen an update by now you aren't getting it. They wouldn't pick 1,000 cars and then not have them update right away. They need to verify the update works.

 

[theslimshadyist]

New Year's Eve. I can imagine some people leaving parties to see if they got the update. Ha, ha. Good luck to each of you. But remember not to ignore your date tonight......

LOL, I left a party tonight at 11:00pm central with hope that my car would get an update!

 

[theslimshadyist]

Nothing reported on teslafi as of yet.

 

[HumanGenome]

Still nothing here as well.