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Yes, if by "EPA rating" you mean the two-cycle test, then Tesla thinks this is likely as well.
Larry
As I read through the calculations of long term Model S ownership I can't help but think that many EV buyers are first and early adopters who are much more predisposed to dump that boring old Model S for the shiny new2.0 Model S with all it's amazing features.
You have to be really careful in reading much into such threads as the self-selection bias is so strong. The types of folks likely to be "the new shiny" kind of adopters are those most likely to seek out forums and such. As a counter point, there's a thread on the TM forums something like "how long will you own the Model S?" where quite a few people are saying they intend it to be a long term car or even their last car ever, but again, it's such a tiny sample set of even the total set of reservation holders that it's really hard to draw any concrete inferences.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The main reason to lease !
About my prediction of halving the price every 5 years - the basic reason I think it would happen is
- A lot of investment has flown into R&D in the last 5 years. A lot more than the previous 5. If we "believe" in free markets theories - this should produce better results than the historical 8 or 10% improvement.
- The prediction used Li-Mn (the Leaf battery) as the basis. NMC would nearly double the density without adding much to cost. Ghosn has said battery density will double within 4 to 5 years (My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - Ghosn : Battery capacity to double within 4-5 years)
- A few years back regularly $1,000/kWh was mentioned. Volt batteries are said to be $500/kWh (what LG CEO quoted for Volt). Recently Jon Bereisa was quoted as saying "I think we'll see that down to maybe $200 per kWh in two to three years, even without major innovations." in ABG. Cell price from China is already in that price range.
- I think a big technology break will occur in about 10 years time. Some sort of Nano technology / Li Air will get productionized - given all the investment and market potential. That will double the density & halve the price again.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Here is my reasoning from another thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/6763-Elon-Musk-No-Leasing-program-from-Tesla-in-the-first-12-Months-(Q3-Financial-Call)?p=96710&viewfull=1#post96710
Watching used Roadster prices have not reflected this thinking. The question is will it ever come up? That is, once the value of a used EV has been established at X percent below original purchase price, will it creep up as time goes on? Owners selling used will ask for more (and have been) but the cars sell for whatever the market will bear.
You want to jump in just before that price raising so I assume you are watching the trends.
You want to jump in just before that price raising so I assume you are watching the trends.
I don't see prices of used Model S "creeping up" towards original price as long as there is a continuous supply of fresh cars from Tesla. Not only with the same features but even improved ones for less money. Better is the enemy of good :smile:
And the next Roadster 3.0 might put the carbon-body one into the "nice old car" category, too. It will have its iconic status for pioneering the return of the electric car, but it will not be sought as the top-notch performance driver.
Plus the conventional tech will wear out in any Tesla, too. Steering, suspension, HVAC units, power windows, you name it. Thus, longevity of the battery is useless beyond longevity of the car.
And the next Roadster 3.0 might put the carbon-body one into the "nice old car" category, too. It will have its iconic status for pioneering the return of the electric car, but it will not be sought as the top-notch performance driver.
Plus the conventional tech will wear out in any Tesla, too. Steering, suspension, HVAC units, power windows, you name it. Thus, longevity of the battery is useless beyond longevity of the car.
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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
And that's me. Well not really broke, but not willing to spend for another new car ever.
Leasing has nothing to do with it, you beat this issue to death in every thread. Let it go already. If someone wants to lease for various reasons, fine, but don't throw out complete misinformation that it's somehow magically better financially because the math simply doesn't support that. If you buy the car and sell it in 3 years, you'll be in better financial shape to buy version 2.0 than if you lease.
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A lease does remove the uncertainty about what the value of the vehicle will be at the end of N years. Like all insurance, it comes at a price. In the case of a totally new vehicle class, such as the Model S, the uncertainty is particularly high, so the insurance cost imbedded in the lease is particularly high.
Because I believe that leasing companies will use a biased (low) forecast of the residual value of the Model S, and because I am unwilling to pay a high premium to secure a lousy resale price lock, I would not consider leasing even it were available.
Because I believe that leasing companies will use a biased (low) forecast of the residual value of the Model S, and because I am unwilling to pay a high premium to secure a lousy resale price lock, I would not consider leasing even it were available.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Hmmm ... I don't see how your final statement is a "fact" and what I say is "misinformation". Without knowing the actual lease details, you can't say any of that.
I guess you get irritated when someone mentions lease and just lash out at them.
I get irritated when you harp on the same issue over and over and over and over in every thread.
A lease is a loan with various extra constraints about the loan conditions. A lease is almost never better than a loan overall. I'm not going to hunt down every link and spam all the math just to make you happy though. I get you like leases. Great. That's fine, but I'm going to get damn irritated when you start spewing that leases are magically somehow superior financially. They aren't.
They're loans and unless you manage to finagle a great set of loan criteria, they're usually worse precisely for the reasons that Robert.Boston pointed out, that the lease conditions are a form of insurance and you pay for that. You don't magically get secured trade-in value for free and lease companies would go out of business rapidly if they set up the conditions in your favor.
That's why I can say it as fact because it's basic economics on the category of lease vs. loan as a whole.
If you can find a specific lease that's better, go for it, but your odds of finding such a killer lease on something like the Model S are just about 0%. Killer leases are ones driven by huge auto companies to sell specific cars, like clearing out last year's model.
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Returning to battery range --
I'm particularly concerned about a thread in the official boards that suggests that the 160/230/320 ranges might all be using the old EPA method, and consequently they will all be restated downward to more realistic values at 70% those ranges, e.g. 112/161/224. That could be extremely disappointing and make the largest pack a no-brainer for me and, I suspect, many others.
Let's hope that the 160/230/320 figures are what real drivers will get under normal driving conditions!
Given the ranges have been stated for a few years, before the new EPA method, and it's in comparison to the Roadster's range, it's pretty much a given the Model S numbers are using the old EPA method. I seem to recall when Elon talked about reaching 300+ miles in testing he said "with the EPA2 test". I'm not sure where the video is though as it was one of the bazillions that came out shortly after the October event.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think the Roadster is a bit of a special case. It's an enthusiasts car, and the first of it's kind, a sport EV. For a $120K vehicle it does have a few issues with fit and finish and some nagging problems, and I think it's resale value reflects that. I do expect at some point down the road it's value will increase as a limited edition collector vehicle, that with a future upgraded pack could perform better than new.
It's too early to really see any trends at this point. The market can't really value a 10 year old EV until there are 10 year old EV's to evaluate. Obviously the only one we have so far, the RAV4EV, has held it's value quite well, but again this is another limited production vehicle and the only one of it's kind. So my feeling is that initially used EV's have unknown value to the market and will be priced accordingly, providing a great value for people like me who see the potential. Or maybe the market will catch on faster than I think, maybe I should stop posting about it until I grab a good deal :tongue: Your old EV's are junk, I'll take them off you hands for you, doing you a favor.
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