JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Exactly, and Tesla always builds higher end models first and is always late. There was no rational reason to expect anything different.
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Late delivery of base Model 3 (out of Market Action)
- Thread starter ggies07
- Start date
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
They, like EVERY OTHER OEM, lists base model pricing. Everyone knows this, except, apparently, you.
Other than this issue you always seemed like a rational forum member but it seems obvious that there is no changing your mind on this point. At least now you have your own thread to keep ranting about this without derailing the investment thread.
Other than this issue you always seemed like a rational forum member but it seems obvious that there is no changing your mind on this point. At least now you have your own thread to keep ranting about this without derailing the investment thread.
Umm....it's an important issue because we are talking about the transition to EVs, that was the whole point of the "next generation" EV from Tesla, not to sell another high optioned car. But it seems like most people on this board have looked passed Tesla selling the S and X without profit and now all of a sudden they need to.....interesting.
Look, Tesla hasn't even delivered the first (non-Performance) AWD car yet. People are ordering them but the first one hasn't actually been delivered. First person to get a delivery date (a SpaceX employee) is supposed to get it August 9, IIRC.
I am sure they are still having production ramp issues integrating AWD into the production line.
They're going to get to the $35K base model, but they still have a lot of work to do debugging the production line. You'll get it in 2019 like they originally said you would. The people who pay more will be the guinea pigs who get early-off-the-line models which need a lot of repairs for "first model year" issues. Be happy.
I am sure they are still having production ramp issues integrating AWD into the production line.
They're going to get to the $35K base model, but they still have a lot of work to do debugging the production line. You'll get it in 2019 like they originally said you would. The people who pay more will be the guinea pigs who get early-off-the-line models which need a lot of repairs for "first model year" issues. Be happy.
While ever they are still production constrained (and we see no evidence of that stopping any time soon), it doesn't matter which cars they are selling, they are displacing the same number of ICE cars, so their transition goal is being satisfied. Actually, you could argue:
1. Selling the more expensive ones first pushes more expensive ICEs, which tend to be gas guzzlers, off the road first, and
2. Making more profit sooner allows them to expand quicker, again accelerating progress to the sustainability goal.
I don't see how it matters which price point if they are shipping all they can.
The difference here that there is a significant difference in availability between base model price and long range. 7 months and counting. I invite you to refute any of the points that make up the description.
PS. And 'others do it too' doesn't refute anything.
sweter
Member
I really wonder what they're gonna do come January when they open European deliveries (I'm hoping for December/Christmas orders as an amazing gift, deliveries starting in February). I'd guess that Tesla would also want to sell higher optioned version first and I believe there will be many takers for it (count me in). Especially that the higher option might offset higher delivery costs.
So what % of production will go to Europe? Wild guess that 50% of total production, but this 50% will be all LR. Then 50% is left to satisfy for a couple of quarters. How much of that is gonna stay LR and how much will be SR? Again 50/50 split? So 25% of total production will end up SR. At 7k/w that's 1,750 SR cars a week. I imagine that the SR wait time is gonna stay long.
This is obviously a super WAG.
So what % of production will go to Europe? Wild guess that 50% of total production, but this 50% will be all LR. Then 50% is left to satisfy for a couple of quarters. How much of that is gonna stay LR and how much will be SR? Again 50/50 split? So 25% of total production will end up SR. At 7k/w that's 1,750 SR cars a week. I imagine that the SR wait time is gonna stay long.
This is obviously a super WAG.
Sudre
Active Member
Ah. I see. There it is. Wrong issue and wrong people to vent to. The people/place you need to complain is all the SHORTS. Right now in case you haven't noticed... I mean this is the investor section of the forum but maybe you haven't noticed? Tesla is cut off from capital. The over bullish here will deny it but it is true.
It's not because Elon cut off analysts on a call. It's because shorts pushed TSLA down to the below the $250 mark and also managed to get Tesla's bond rating tarnished. If not for that Tesla could have announced Semi, Roadster, and Model Y, raised capital and moved on. They must profit now or they will run out of cash. They can not make enough cash on the $35K version to pay off bonds and not raise capital.
If you want Tesla to go on with the Cap Raise and Burn* method which allows them to lead the world in the EV market then you should be working to stop the shorts from manipulating the stock price. The manipulation is so obvious that when I woke up this morning at 5:30am and looked over the market sentiment and charts then put in a buy order at $311 and went to work. Well I didn't get my buy but I only missed by what? 77 cents! It's just so freaking clear as day. and yes I am making good money swing trading it.
How do you work to stop it? I really don't know. I don't think the SEC cares at all. I don't think Tesla can stop it even by showing a profit. A profit will just slightly decrease the short interest which will allow them access to some capital.
*yes I know burn is not the word everyone likes so read it as "pouring money into building out infrastructure".
"Burn" is just a lot quicker to type.
mmd
Active Member
OK. So 5000 a week was achieved last month, but no sign of the $35k model 3 yet. I hear it is even removed from configuration page now.
But the apologists can still weasel out with "But Elon didn't say after how much time after 5000 a week". It could be a day, a week, or a year or two. Best of luck waiting. Reminds me of the profile pic of @Waiting4M3 .
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
About 10 years ago, Honda used to list the base price of a Honda Civic using the lowest “DX” trim, which I believe didn’t have power doors/windows or air conditioning. I’m not sure anyone actually ever bought a Civic DX, because they all seemed to arrive at the dealer as “DX-VP”, or “Value Package”, which included AC and power accessories, along with a higher price.
And in practical terms, the next tier up LX trim was the volume seller, because customers wanted the nicer interior, remote entry, body colored mirrors/door handles, cruise control, and other amenities of modern automobiles. Eventually Honda just ditched the DX entirely, because the vast majority of customers wanted the LX equipment.
My honest assessment since 2016 has been that Model 3 is realistically a 45-55k sedan for most buyers, which is typical for cars of its class. Given that Model 3 gives 90% the performance and utility of a Model S at half the price, it’s a substantial step forward in affordability for a nice EV. My expectation is that very few 35k Model 3 will ever be made, and that most of the lower tier vehicles will be 45k before tax (35 base + 9k LR battery + 1k paint).
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think it was on twitter where Elon said that the base model will be made 3-6 months after they have gotten the production line running at speed. Those 3-6 months are to iron out the efficiency bottlenecks at the line to get it to operate efficiently enough to allow them to produce the 35k car without a loss.
They reached 5k end of June. Hence the 35k car will be made 3-6 months after that being in Q4 '18 or Q1 '19. That has been the goal for at least a few months and hasn't changed.
The 35k option is not removed from the configurator. It's listed in the configurator with the expectation of 6-9 months for delivery. You cannot pick this option as the order time is too long and hence they only offer the models currently in production for immediate configuration.
It is not a bait and switch because they will be producing the 35k model and you will get it. Anyone who ordered the car at launch was given the expectation that the cars will debut mid 2018 and mass production will be by 2020 so best you could hope for was 2019 delivery of the car as we know all that debut means handful of cars with a rampup happening over the next year or two. So right now we are at the point where the car is supposed to debut and the first deliveries should be happening. There can only be customers who've been positively surprised they got the car sooner.
“The 14/50 was $1260 installed”
Wow, I payed a total of $850 for my Tesla wall charger(the 25ft cable version), including installation.
N5329K
Active Member
My outlet is 110 feet from the panel, and the line had to be fished through a crawlspace part of the way. I'm not happy about not having an EV to plug into it, but I'm totally OK with the cost of the installation.
Robin
Look up and read about price discrimination, profit maximization and cash flow. That education will reduce your suffering.
No, that thing you heard was written by an idiot. You didn't actually go to the Tesla web site to check for yourself, because that would have been too easy to do to confirm for yourself, did you? Guess what? The standard model is referenced there all over the place.
But you doubter will believe anything without checking out for yourself, just as long as it confirms your world view.
jhm
Well-Known Member
My take on this is that the M3 SR is a buffer version. Here's what I mean. Tesla prefers to sell higher margin vehicles to the lowest margin version of M3. So as they take orders they will give priority to the the higher margin orders. If you want an SR, you will get it for a lower price because you are willing to wait for it. The advantage to Tesla for offering the lower margin product is that it keeps the factory busy through the ebb and flow of order arrivals of higher margin products. So basically, the M3 SR and MS 75 serve as a buffer to keep the factory well utilized. It is always better to make more of a lower margin product than to decrease production.
So that sort of sucks if your heart is set on a low margin base product, but your willingness to wait for a product is being rewarded by a lower price. That's the trade off. If you want something quicker, you can pay more.
This waiting is symptomatic of demand outpacing supply. Really we should not see very many M3 SR produced until the backorders for everything else has thinned out. I do think this will play out for the US first, however, as there is a special consideration for the phase out of the federal tax credit.
BTW, I have a friend who placed an order for a P3D, which he should get in 3 to 4 months. He never had a reservation for the Model 3, just placed an order. Yep, he gets a big cut in the line, but his order may generate around $30k in gross profit, while a base version would gross less than $7k. So, yeah, he gets to cut to the front of the line.
What's funny about the shorts taking up this issue is that it is definitely in shareholder interest to prioritize the higher grossing products while Tesla is supply constrained. So those who preach about how Tesla should turn a profit are being hypocritical to criticize Tesla for not building the base model just yet. But of course, once Tesla is building the base version, they will switch their criticism yet again. They will say Tesla was forced to build the base version because they are demand constrained, and look at all the margin compression coming down the pile. Oh, well, there is no pleasing the shorts.
In the long run, some fraction of M3 sales will be for the SR version. I'm not sure if this will be 5% or 50%. But when Tesla is cranking out some 10k per week, it won't matter much what the mix is. What will matter is that about 10k will be purchased each week. This will be a lot of happy customers and a lot of happy shareholders. Shorts will not be so happy, but I'm sure they'll come up with some nonsense to razz longs about. That seems to be what makes them most happy and fulfilled in life. So it's a win for everybody!
So that sort of sucks if your heart is set on a low margin base product, but your willingness to wait for a product is being rewarded by a lower price. That's the trade off. If you want something quicker, you can pay more.
This waiting is symptomatic of demand outpacing supply. Really we should not see very many M3 SR produced until the backorders for everything else has thinned out. I do think this will play out for the US first, however, as there is a special consideration for the phase out of the federal tax credit.
BTW, I have a friend who placed an order for a P3D, which he should get in 3 to 4 months. He never had a reservation for the Model 3, just placed an order. Yep, he gets a big cut in the line, but his order may generate around $30k in gross profit, while a base version would gross less than $7k. So, yeah, he gets to cut to the front of the line.
What's funny about the shorts taking up this issue is that it is definitely in shareholder interest to prioritize the higher grossing products while Tesla is supply constrained. So those who preach about how Tesla should turn a profit are being hypocritical to criticize Tesla for not building the base model just yet. But of course, once Tesla is building the base version, they will switch their criticism yet again. They will say Tesla was forced to build the base version because they are demand constrained, and look at all the margin compression coming down the pile. Oh, well, there is no pleasing the shorts.
In the long run, some fraction of M3 sales will be for the SR version. I'm not sure if this will be 5% or 50%. But when Tesla is cranking out some 10k per week, it won't matter much what the mix is. What will matter is that about 10k will be purchased each week. This will be a lot of happy customers and a lot of happy shareholders. Shorts will not be so happy, but I'm sure they'll come up with some nonsense to razz longs about. That seems to be what makes them most happy and fulfilled in life. So it's a win for everybody!
