Model Y standard range for UK - will it happen

[Jason71]

I can see both sides. So good luck to both of you. Recession, fuel prices and supply definitely point down but a lot of cars sold in the UK are company so as peoples company cars come up for renewal the 2% BIK will continue to drive EV sales and so long as demand is there so will prices be.
May the best man win

 

[2020M3SR]

Let’s have a tenner on it then, to the winner’s charity of choice.

I say MY LR to £62k within 6 months, so by the end of Feb 2023. You say sub £50k MY in 12 months, so by the end of Aug 2023.

Two separate £10 charity bets? Or two £5?

Well, its official.

Brand new model Y can be had for sub £50k in the UK, £48,990

All inventory cars have had their prices cuts by the looks of it. You can get a 'demo' car a little cheaper, less than 50 miles so likely brand new too, £48,610, but you may as well pay a few hundred more for guaranteed brand new.

As a side note, demo M3 can be had for £43,595 and brand new for £45,490

All above showing on inventory pages.

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/my/order/LRWY252_ff3f3dc0a00b49be04729a24ffb5029f?postal=SW1V%203JD&region=England&coord=51.4854668,-0.1396989&titleStatus=new&redirect=no#overview

 

[2020M3SR]

Considering I started this thread if February, it hasn't been too long a wait for me to get what I was hoping Tesla would do, which is a reasonably priced SR model Y.

Many people said the SR wouldn't happen but thankfully, it has and then when £52k price came out, I was like, hmmnn, I think they'll bring it down to a more reasonable level, and yes, here we are.

The question I now have is, do I buy one? I've got what I was hoping for but its still a big purchase. Anyone worried about brand taint? Will it be hard to shift in 2 or 3 years if Elon goes full on QAnon? Do people in the UK even care about it/him?

While the MY SR at sub £50k is still a bit dearer than the likes of Polestar 2, VW ID4 entry level cars, the MY is a good chunk bigger and is hugely more practical than those, so overall bang for buck is starting to look in line with where it should be.

 

[Casss]

The question I now have is, do I buy one? I've got what I was hoping for but its still a big purchase. Anyone worried about brand taint? Will it be hard to shift in 2 or 3 years if Elon goes full on QAnon? Do people in the UK even care about it/him?

You will get two polar responses to this and you'll still have to make a decision for yourself.

Long term investors who are currently looking at a - ~50% number in the red will either claim that he doesn't matter to the business, or are absolutely fuming because he does.

People who are just here for the cars will probably tell you they don't give a toss as long as he doesn't meddle in Tesla's product decisions more than he has to in order to fuel his ego.

My personal experience is that ~4 months ago I was of the view that I really didn't care at all what the guy said on social media. Since then, I still maintain that I can love the cars/engineering/design and not the man or what he stands for, however I think the possibility of 'brand taint' as you call it, is growing. I've had a few people bring it up in random conversations recently. Then again, VW group head honchos knowingly poisoned us all for a buck and people still flock to buy new Golfs, Passats and Touraegs because they're good cars and allow them to look 'not poor' but not 'ostentatious' so take your pick!

 

[UkNorthampton]

Considering I started this thread if February, it hasn't been too long a wait for me to get what I was hoping Tesla would do, which is a reasonably priced SR model Y.

Many people said the SR wouldn't happen but thankfully, it has and then when £52k price came out, I was like, hmmnn, I think they'll bring it down to a more reasonable level, and yes, here we are.

The question I now have is, do I buy one? I've got what I was hoping for but its still a big purchase. Anyone worried about brand taint? Will it be hard to shift in 2 or 3 years if Elon goes full on QAnon? Do people in the UK even care about it/him?

While the MY SR at sub £50k is still a bit dearer than the likes of Polestar 2, VW ID4 entry level cars, the MY is a good chunk bigger and is hugely more practical than those, so overall bang for buck is starting to look in line with where it should be.

More demand than supply for EVs, this will continue for many years (in my opinion) for many reasons including restrictions like clean air zones and as people learn more about advantages of EVs and specifically of Teslas. Peak noise at the moment, signal being overwhelmed. Lots of disrupted industries and their clients squealing, with lobbyists/journalists/politicos amplifying. The good isn't reported but is there in abundance.

Edit: getting expensive though, my Model 3 Long Range was £46k (inc subsidy & delivery). Alternatives:- EV Database (tesla Model 3 ie Standard Range is top available car, Model Y SR is 16 out of probably a 100 cars - good for a big, high car/SUV). Prices might rise (inflation) or fall (production efficiencies at scale). If EV database price is correct M3LR now £57.5k, but Tesla say £60,090 (inc delivery). I think the best thing is just to lock in a price for a refundable £100 (if not business) & then price will be lower of order date & delivery date (if Tesla continue as they did previously, mine was the cheaper delivery date price).


Edit: personally..

If I was getting a new car for me, it would be a Tesla - which one would depend on price/utility. Less range anxiety now after lots of long trips, more Superchargers (+ other networks) & improvements with cars (heat pump), so I could live with Standard Range now, but I still think the sweet spot for me is Long Range. Probably a Y for practicality. If money was no object (I wish) - Plaid S or X (but they do seem BIG to me).

We might replace second car (old EV, local use, needs to be low insurance group) - maybe Peugeot e-208 or family (Corsa-e, others). If cheap insurance, a small Chinese one. It would rarely (if ever) touch a DC charger, charged at home. I wish there was an insurance group cheat sheet, as it is this might help with my shortlist for test-drives & further investigation. Small Tesla would be perfect if reasonably priced.

EV Database

Price per mile of range of electric vehicles cheatsheet. Quick reference for all plug-in hybrid en full electric cars.

ev-database.uk

 

[Durzel]

I don’t think Elon can be separated from Tesla, even though under the normal run of things the board of directors have a fiduciary responsibility shareholders so in any other company they would probably have been looking to step in before now.

That said TSLA is still up massively from a few years ago, it’s only people that have bought in the past couple of years that are either seeing a loss or just breaking even.

The downside for Tesla in terms of both the brand and stock is that Elon doesn’t show any signs of reining in his insane behaviour, and Twitter was a loss making enterprise for all but 2 years of its existence before he took over, and now he has massive debt payments to make - hence the stock sales. Twitter isn’t even an adjacent company to Tesla, it is almost completely valueless to Tesla and it’s customers, save for perhaps a Twitter app appearing in the car at some point.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Model Y standard range for UK - will it happen

I can see both sides. So good luck to both of you. Recession, fuel prices and supply definitely point down but a lot of cars sold in the UK are company so as peoples company cars come up for renewal the 2% BIK will continue to drive EV sales and so long as demand is there so will prices be. May...

teslamotorsclub.com

Handful (mostly demo) might be available for a couple of days if quick.

Edit - quoted text of post for ease
Edit 2 - link didn't work for me - try
Edit 3: Doh - didn't realise the post was in this thread as I had multiple tabs open & got confused - sorry @2020M3SR

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/new/my?arrangeby=plh&zip=al1 1aa&range=0 (32 Model Y SR cars)
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/used/my?arrangeby=plh&zip=al1 1aa (1 car)
or sort by mileage for non-demo https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/new/my?TRIM=SRRWD&arrangeby=mlh&zip=al1 1aa&range=0

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/new/m3?TRIM=M3RWD&arrangeby=plh&zip=al1 1aa&range=0 (15 Model 3 RWD/SR)

Well, its official.

Brand new model Y can be had for sub £50k in the UK, £48,990

All inventory cars have had their prices cuts by the looks of it. You can get a 'demo' car a little cheaper, less than 50 miles so likely brand new too, £48,610, but you may as well pay a few hundred more for guaranteed brand new.

As a side note, demo M3 can be had for £43,595 and brand new for £45,490

All above showing on inventory pages.

 

[WannabeOwner]

The question I now have is, do I buy one?

For me it is mostly about how good the EV mechanicals (Drive train and Battery / BMS etc.) are. Some of the others are good - as good? Not sure ... And the Software (others may catch up ...) and the Superchargers (all of which may be open-to-all in 2 years time)

VW software still clearly causing them some issues

Many / Most? require back-to-dealer for software update of anything other than Infotainment.

I am pleased with enhancements that Tesla have released (I've owned Teslas since 2015) - anything / everything that reduces charge time - e.g. pre-condition when Satnav destination is a charger, Some things they haven't done are a frustration, for sure. But I'm not sure that the others are up-to-speed on what is going to be required, software-wise, going forwards. I make significant use of the API (charge the car when PV is in excess, and times when Time-of-Use is cheap and so on). No idea if that is even possible for other brands. Maybe when we sell in 2 - 3 years the others will have caught up - but of course they need to both catch up AND implement anything that Tesla has done in that period too

But, either way, the 2nd market wants EVs, and if you buy "latest model" today you are going to be the only person with one to sell (of that mileage / age) when you shift it 2nd hand.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Model Y standard range for UK - will it happen

I can see both sides. So good luck to both of you. Recession, fuel prices and supply definitely point down but a lot of cars sold in the UK are company so as peoples company cars come up for renewal the 2% BIK will continue to drive EV sales and so long as demand is there so will prices be. May...

teslamotorsclub.com

Handful (mostly demo) might be available for a couple of days if quick.

Edit - quoted text of post for ease
Edit 2 - link didn't work for me - try
Edit 3: Doh - didn't realise the post was in this thread as I had multiple tabs open & got confused - sorry @2020M3SR

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/new/my?arrangeby=plh&zip=al1 1aa&range=0 (32 Model Y SR cars)
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/used/my?arrangeby=plh&zip=al1 1aa (1 car)
or sort by mileage for non-demo https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/new/my?TRIM=SRRWD&arrangeby=mlh&zip=al1 1aa&range=0

View attachment 885642
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/inventory/new/m3?TRIM=M3RWD&arrangeby=plh&zip=al1 1aa&range=0 (15 Model 3 RWD/SR)

When you say ‘a few…”, there are over 150 cars listed with a discount. Take delivery by new year and you’ll also get a load of free supercharging.

Supply is definitely greater than demand right now for Teslas

 

[DrJFoster]

Didn't know about the free supercharging, where does it say that? However there are lots of both M3 and MY, and if you want to see the discounts easily, then head over to tesla-info.. makes life easier

 

[MrBadger]

Didn't know about the free supercharging, where does it say that?

Not for second hand cars iirc.

 

[UkNorthampton]

When you say ‘a few…”, there are over 150 cars listed with a discount. Take delivery by new year and you’ll also get a load of free supercharging.

Supply is definitely greater than demand right now for Teslas

November sales of Model Y in UK were 4229

4229/30 days - approx 141 per day - so approx 1 day's deliveries. Any more boats expected before year end?

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

November sales of Model Y in UK were 4229

4229/30 days - approx 141 per day - so approx 1 day's deliveries. Any more boats expected before year end?

Good point, I just can’t recall ever seeing that many

 

[UkNorthampton]

Good point, I just can’t recall ever seeing that many

The volumes are getting big now. There are many reports of "inventory" - which are often just in transit from continent to continent, sometimes much nearer and it's getting better with Berlin & Austin increasing production.

At a run-rate of 450,000 vehicles per quarter, that's 5000 per day (simply using 90 days, but always downtime, upgrades).

At one point Tesla had 14 days of cars in transit (inventory) - so that would be 70,000 cars. From memory it's around 11 days now but I couldn't find a figure - so much dross in google results - mostly analysts who've been wrong many times before, not facts.

So when we see deliveries below production and that figure seems large, it isn't. As Tesla continues to grow by 40-100% a year (bad year this year), the gap will increase - so instead of a gap of 22k between production & delivery in 3 months (366 prod, 344 delivery) - we'll see 33k gap etc. It's really tiny as a % as is 150 Model Y in UK inventory at a time when company & private cars might be cancelled due to recession fears or finances getting tight. It's just one day of deliveries.


Competition comparison (USA) - It depends how it's measured, Tesla don't have dealerships acting as a buffer.

Production Cuts Expected to Continue in 2023, with No Clear End in Sight for the Chip Shortage or Supply Chain Issues; Macroeconomic Forces Creating Uncertainty for Vehicle Sales

Production shutdowns and delays continue to persist among the industry, as automakers and suppliers have been enduring harsh operational conditions for over two consecutive years. Automotive inventories saw a noticeable increase, while month-over-month sales remained flat on an unadjusted basis...

www.alvarezandmarsal.com

Automotive inventory increased by 160,000 units in September, resulting in approximately 1.43 million total units. This translates to a days’ supply (DS) that is 32 percent below the five-year average at 33 DS

 

[Kenners]

Standard range was too expensive anyway, they even had to spoof the range by making it show the gemini wheels range whereas the LR always showed the range with the upgraded wheels by default

 

[WannabeOwner]

I just can’t recall ever seeing that many

Might be lease companies block ordering, and then cancelling at delivery time if they haven't made a sale? Maybe that is higher at year end (although I can't think of a good reason ...) ... financial downturn causing companies to place fewer lease order perhaps.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Might be lease companies block ordering, and then cancelling at delivery time if they haven't made a sale? Maybe that is higher at year end (although I can't think of a good reason ...) ... financial downturn causing companies to place fewer lease order perhaps.

Could be. it's all speculation on our part, and there are probably multiple reasons all of which add up, or it could just be Tesla have decided to list more than they usually do and there have always been this many. The supercharging miles has been done before, the price cuts are a temporary discount. I feel sorry for anyone who purchased one a few weeks ago and have missed out on both, but thats not new either. The biggest shocker was about 4 years ago when they knocked £35k off the price of a P100D, that will have stung a fair few.

Tesla don't have dealerships acting as a buffer.

They have a lot of "demo" cars with little to no miles which is the Tesla equivalent to a pre-reg car.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Could be. it's all speculation on our part, and there are probably multiple reasons all of which add up, or it could just be Tesla have decided to list more than they usually do and there have always been this many. The supercharging miles has been done before, the price cuts are a temporary discount. I feel sorry for anyone who purchased one a few weeks ago and have missed out on both, but thats not new either. The biggest shocker was about 4 years ago when they knocked £35k off the price of a P100D, that will have stung a fair few.


They have a lot of "demo" cars with little to no miles which is the Tesla equivalent to a pre-reg car.

My emphasis on "a lot". I think that's the aspect I question.

Something like 35 Tesla stores in UK. Not sure how many cars per store,

I remember the Milton Keynes one having several cars sitting on their own Tesla chargers in the multi-storey (non-public at time, probably still Tesla demo cars only, low power?) . From images, it looks like room for 6-10 cars, plus the store (2, maybe 3 max). Gatwick, Northampton look like quite a few cars are normally there, unsure of elsewhere.

If they have 35 stores and 150 cars Model Y in inventory/demo - assuming an unknown number are cancellations or something else, that's only 3-5 per store. Tesla have tried to clear out showrooms previously. Or just that 150 isn't a big number any more - many are just left over from last boat. Some of the big users like NHS (via 3rd parties) probably have cancellations because of ... reasons.

What I found useful before were some up-to-date photos/videos of stores but I don't have these and I'm not going out unless I need to. If the demo vehicles are gone from the inside of the stores, likely for one or more reasons

1) All sold
2) New versions coming in on next wave
3) Using indoor cars as demo cars
4) Multiple reasons

Being end of year, I'd bet on (1) - IF stores are depleted of stock on the inside

 

[BelfastEV]

Anyone with a “Standard Range” model Y on 19’ wheels . When you charge to 100% how many miles of range do you show on the battery ?

My model 3 SR+on full charge dropped from about 230 miles new to about 218 now (56k miles driven) or 213 in this cold weather.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I feel sorry for anyone who purchased one a few weeks ago and have missed out on both, but thats not new either

Although ...

People who placed orders were happy with the deal they had, at the time.

Brands with dealerships will be doing this, but as a recent buyer you would never know (unless you went back and haggled on ANOTHER one!) so unfortunate consequence for Tesla of not having dealers ... at least everyone getting the deal knows it is available, and not purely dependent on how well they can negotiate against a dealer's career-negotiator ...

My emphasis on "a lot". I think that's the aspect I question.

My measurement would be what percentage of annual sales it is this time (compared with percentage of sales on previous occasions that they have done this). Number might be bigger, but I doubt the percentage is