Optimus Bot Future

[DanCar]

C3PO like software by end of decade, much smarter in some ways, and dumb in some ways. Like today's LLMs, with billions of facts, but lacking some common sense. Humanoid robot movement also solved / not an issue by end of decade.

 

[spacecoin]

C3PO like software by end of decade, much smarter in some ways, and dumb in some ways. Like today's LLMs, with billions of facts, but lacking some common sense. Humanoid robot movement also solved / not an issue by end of decade.

You can't run an LLM with 3000 ms response times on a robot unless its carrying an H100. My prediction is that Optimus will sell ZERO copies. The hardware cannot handle "dull, dirty, dangerous"-use cases, which is the only niche that's going to be a thing for humanoids before 2040.

Other form factors will do factories, humanoids can't do homes or civil applications. They will trip and kill a pet or a toddler in 30 minutes. Plus they make a lot of noise and have a battery time of 1.5 hours. Who'd want that at home?

 

[DanCar]

You can't run an LLM with 3000 ms response times on a robot. ...

You can not run the motors with an LLM but you can do higher level tasks.

 

[spacecoin]

You can not run the motors with an LLM but you can do higher level tasks.

Sorry mate. It's not likely happening before 2040 unless we figure out how to break Moravec's Law by some insane ML break-throughs. Current systems can't even do hierarchical planning. They cannot reason, they require hours of training in the environment they are going to be deployed in and so on. Basically it's so far away it's hard too see it ever working. I'm hoping in 15 years.

 

[Ni Ph]

Tesla does not advertise. Tesla worked out that paying a few Twitter/youtube Tesla pumpers is more effective. I don't believe any of them, as they just accept anything that Elon says. Worst of them is the Sandy who masquerade as a production specialist when all he really is a PUMPER.

They make excuses for all of Elons many shortcomings.

Sorry robots that need to be speeded up to look plausible and needs a human next to it to do the action it mimics, misses the whole point of the robot. i.e. replace humans. Cos in the ever expanding human population, there is a stortage of worker. BS!

All its about is Tesla's increased profits rather than employing people, which all their humanity baggage.

 

[israndy]

in the ever expanding human population

You are forgetting about xenophobia, there is lots of places on the planet where the residents Don't Want people from outside to come in and the kids are not reproducing, 'cause it's icky, so these places could really use more workers, including the kind you plug in.