Reactions to Model X reveal event

[bonnie]

Small quibble with the small quibble. Deposits were 100% refundable. People had reserved the option to buy, not committed to buy.

Of course that's true. But it doesn't change the fact that there was a mental commitment to move forward for thousands of people BEFORE the supercharger announcement.

(On another note, haven't seen you around much. Welcome back!)

 

[X-Wing]

Market Share:
Tesla Model S: On Track To Be A Best-Selling Large Luxury Car Worldwide - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
(disclaimer: I wrote these)

That's misleading at best, perhaps even intellectually dishonest when you cherry pick data to support a conclusion that's quite different from the reality.

1. Model S doesn't just compete with the S-Class and 7 Series. It is priced in that category but the fit and finish aren't even close. Realistically people will also cross shop the E-Class, 5-Series, Volvo, Lexus...etc.

More importnatly, for year 2014 about 16,500,000 cars, vans, trucks and SUV were sold in the US. In 2014, Tesla produced about 35,000 cars and 55% went to the US market. That's like 0.167% of US market share. That's not even remotely close to 1% in its largest market.


2. Porsche has one of the highest margins among automotive manufactures. You want Steering Column in Leather, no problem. Air Vent Slats and Fuse Box Cover in Leather, too? We will gladly take your money. Contrast Stitching? You wanna take a seat first.

Porsche also produced just over 203,097 vehicles in 2014 per their annual report. Revenue and operating profit were 17.2 Billion Euro and 2.7 Billinion Euro respectively.

 

[dalalsid]

That's misleading at best, perhaps even intellectually dishonest when you cherry pick data to support a conclusion that's quite different from the reality.

1. Model S doesn't just compete with the S-Class and 7 Series. It is priced in that category but the fit and finish aren't even close. Realistically people will also cross shop the E-Class, 5-Series, Volvo, Lexus...etc.

I picked the competitive cars in categories that the Model S is generally listed with in govt. sales data. You can take that issue up with them. eg. in Germany Model S = OBERKLASSE - Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Monatliche Neuzulassungen - Top 3 je Segment im August 2015 and you can see what's the competition. And are you hinting that the S-Class shopper is not cross shopping with the E-Class but the Tesla shopper is?

More importnatly, for year 2014 about 16,500,000 cars, vans, trucks and SUV were sold in the US. In 2014, Tesla produced about 35,000 cars and 55% went to the US market. That's like 0.167% of US market share. That's not even remotely close to 1% in its largest market.


2. Porsche has one of the highest margins among automotive manufactures. You want Steering Column in Leather, no problem. Air Vent Slats and Fuse Box Cover in Leather, too? We will gladly take your money. Contrast Stitching? You wanna take a seat first.

Porsche also produced just over 203,097 vehicles in 2014 per their annual report. Revenue and operating profit were 17.2 Billion Euro and 2.7 Billinion Euro respectively.

And yet they all play catch up with Tesla and every media article about any new car is about how these guys will "catch up" with Tesla.

 

[MrBoylan]

The super charger was not a surprise free bonus. It was announced as built into the price for 85s, but not 60s. It'd also wasn't announced after they'd shipped thousands of cars, it was before.

I never said "shipped," I said "sold." I meant reservations; commitments to purchase. I guess if you want to quibble with that, you can. You could rightly consider a "sale" a "delivery" but that wasn't what I meant.

In October 2011, there were already 6,000 reservations for the Model S (according to Tesla). That's the first reference I've seen to talk about a high-speed charger network, but there was no discussion about it being free. The first reference I've found to that is this press release from Tesla in September 2012:

Tesla Motors Launches Revolutionary Supercharger Enabling Convenient Long Distance Driving (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Was there an announcement earlier than this? When did you reserve yours and did you know there was going to be a free network of high-speed superchargers when you put down your deposit?

p.s. Bonnie knew what I meant.

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Small quibble with the small quibble. Deposits were 100% refundable. People had reserved the option to buy, not committed to buy.

OK! Uncle! I will edit the post to make it clearer what I meant.

 

[PoweredByRain]

I'm 6'2" and noticed I had about 3-4" of air above my head under the open FD.

I'm 6'5" and am interested to learn if it is really 3" or 4".

 

[X-Wing]

I picked the competitive cars in categories that the Model S is generally listed with in govt. sales data. You can take that issue up with them. eg. in Germany Model S = OBERKLASSE - Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Monatliche Neuzulassungen - TopÂ*3 je Segment im AugustÂ*2015 and you can see what's the competition. And are you hinting that the S-Class shopper is not cross shopping with the E-Class but the Tesla shopper is?

Like I said, cherry picking the data and willful blindness to the facts.

Tesla does not even have 1% market share in the US.

And yet they all play catch up with Tesla and every media article about any new car is about how these guys will "catch up" with Tesla.

The Tesla Delusion perhaps?

Porsche has some of the highest margin in the automotive industry and Tesla hasn't even turned a profit yet am I correct? So, who is catching up to who?

Also, Porsche knows how to do EV. Their 918 Spyder hybrid turned a sub 7 minute lap time around the Ring. So, they definitely have the technical know-how.

 

[Blastphemy]

Ha! Trolls (with an "s"). Have you noticed there is more than one? I suspect one or more are employed by other auto makers and are here to plant FUD.

To be more accurate, not only is there more than one troll, there are also numerous apologists and fanboys on this forum. Whether one is a troll, an apologist, or a fanboy is dependent on whether such member agrees with whatever was posted just before his/her own respective post, and whether those viewing such member's post are on his side or against him/her.

If one is opining negatively about Elon's speaking ability, then is that person the troll or is it the one who berates him for daring to impinge the honor of Saint Musk? If one is opining positively about the falcon wing doors, is that person a fanboy, or is he trolling all the people who dislike those doors? If one is asserting that "everyone" prefers an awkward engineer over someone more polished to give a major speech that could effect the future of a company, is that person an apologist, a fanboy, or a clueless troll?

Ugliness is in the eye of the beholder... just sayin'.

 

[ohmman]

Ugliness is in the eye of the beholder... just sayin'.

Agree. I think applying the dogma/science test works here. That is, to ask the question: what evidence could arise that would make you change your mind? If nothing could turn you off of Tesla, you could maybe do with a little reality check. If nothing could turn you onto them, likewise.

You're misusing confidence if you let it completely blind you to an opposing viewpoint.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Like I said, cherry picking the data and willful blindness to the facts.

Tesla does not even have 1% market share in the US.



The Tesla Delusion perhaps?

Porsche has some of the highest margin in the automotive industry and Tesla hasn't even turned a profit yet am I correct? So, who is catching up to who?

Also, Porsche knows how to do EV. Their 918 Spyder hybrid turned a sub 7 minute lap time around the Ring. So, they definitely have the technical know-how.

You are confusing operating profit with per unit margin. Much like Amazon, Tesla is choosing to make large capital expenditures to grow. Their stated vehicle margin is on the order of 30-35%.

 

[dalalsid]

Like I said, cherry picking the data and willful blindness to the facts.

Tesla does not even have 1% market share in the US.

In its segment it is the leader. You can argue what its segment is but I see it as 7 Series/A7/A8/S Class.

The Tesla Delusion perhaps?

Porsche has some of the highest margin in the automotive industry and Tesla hasn't even turned a profit yet am I correct? So, who is catching up to who?

Also, Porsche knows how to do EV. Their 918 Spyder hybrid turned a sub 7 minute lap time around the Ring. So, they definitely have the technical know-how.

Tesla delusion:

 

[omarsultan]

I feel like this thread should be renamed "Random ramblings and arguments on 4 different topics."

^^^ YES!

 

[omarsultan]

1. Model S doesn't just compete with the S-Class and 7 Series. It is priced in that category but the fit and finish aren't even close. Realistically people will also cross shop the E-Class, 5-Series, Volvo, Lexus...etc.

Um, Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) at the University of Duisburg-Essen (that's in Germany BTW) would tend to disagree:

In a lot of markets we are seeing Tesla doing better than the BMW 7-series, Mercedes S-class, Audi A8 and Porsche Panamera. Tesla can boast real innovation and customers with big money are trying it. I’m not sure if Tesla will be successful in the long term but when they broaden the line we will see if it can bring revolution to the car industry.

source: Tesla Eats Into BMW, Mercedes, Audi High-Margin Sales As Germans Miscue

People cross shop against cars in the same category and price segment. The MSRP for an MB E Series and BMW 5 Series is ~$50K, no one in the market for a $50K car is going to cross shop it against a car that costs at least 50% more. Against large luxury cars, the Model S is holding its own, behind the S-Class, but well ahead of the 7-Series. Last year the S-Class was benefitting from a model refresh--will be interesting to see how the 2015 numbers stack up as the pent up demand for the new S-Class is bled-off and Tesla introduced the P85D to goose Model S sales.

 

[MrBoylan]

Ugliness is in the eye of the beholder... just sayin'.

True, but lately I've noticed a lot of new posters just jumping in and honing in on anything negative they can latch onto. The same is true (and has been true for some time) with news stories about Tesla. Commenters jump in with the same old tired arguments against Tesla and against EVs in general, many of which are just cut and pasted over and over again for months and years. Much of this is dated or just plain factually wrong. Absolutely nothing wrong with dissenting opinions, but it's the underlying agendas that are frequently hidden in the folds of the anonymous internet.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

People cross shop against cars in the same category and price segment. The MSRP for an MB E Series and BMW 5 Series is ~$50K, no one in the market for a $50K car is going to cross shop it against a car that costs at least 50% more. Against large luxury cars, the Model S is holding its own, behind the S-Class, but well ahead of the 7-Series. Last year the S-Class was benefitting from a model refresh--will be interesting to see how the 2015 numbers stack up as the pent up demand for the new S-Class is bled-off and Tesla introduced the P85D to goose Model S sales.

Given enough choices, that may be true. However there aren't always enough models to choose from.

I've been considering the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, the XC90 T8, the Model S and the Model X and even the Chevy Volt (briefly but quickly eliminated when no AWD was announced for 2016). They are in totally different categories and have vastly different prices, ranging from $40k to $100k. I'm looking for an AWD that plugs-in, gets good range on battery and has sufficient room. Since there are not enough choices, I have to expand my price range and choose other categories.

There are many others on this forum, the Outlander forums, the Chevy Volt forums, SwedeSpeed, etc. who are all cross-shopping Tesla with Chevy, Mitsubishi, Prius, Volvo and other BEV and PHEV vehicles.

There was a recent study done and IIRC, they said that people considering a BEV are willing to spend 60% more for a BEV vs. a comparable non-BEV vehicle in the same class.

Just because you might limit yourself to a certain category and/or price range doesn't mean everyone shops the same way.

 

[ecarfan]

Like I said, cherry picking the data and willful blindness to the facts... Also, Porsche knows how to do EV. Their 918 Spyder hybrid turned a sub 7 minute lap time around the Ring. So, they definitely have the technical know-how.

Speaking of "willful blindness to the facts"...the 918 is not an EV. It has a tiny battery that will only power it for 12 miles according to the EPA. It does have an enormous ICE that powered it around the Ring in an impressively low time.
Porsche is years away from actually demonstrating that the company can build a real EV with a useful range.
And Tesla is the EV standard against which all others are compared to. More than three years after the launch of the S, with over 80,000 produced and sold, no other manufacturer has built anything that is even remotely competitive.
The Model X appears likely to sell just as well as the S. It is clearly carefully targeted at the minivan/SUV/CUV market segment, which is enormous. It is not designed for people who need a vehicle that can tow over 5,000 lbs and/or throw 4'x8' pieces of plywood in the back. But that is a smaller market. Elon has many times expressed interest in creating an EV pickup. I expect that vehicle to appear at some point when battery costs really come down due to Gigafactory production.

 

[PoweredByRain]

More than three years after the launch of the S, with over 80,000 produced and sold, no other manufacturer has built anything that is even remotely competitive.

Over 100,000, surely. Currently assigned VINs are close to 110,000. Check the Model S delivery thread - e.g. someone with a VIN of 108404 just had their car enter production.

 

[Skotty]

There was a recent study done and IIRC, they said that people considering a BEV are willing to spend 60% more for a BEV vs. a comparable non-BEV vehicle in the same class.

True. When I think about what I would consider buying, I am personally willing to spend about 150% more for a BEV than an ICE. But it has to be super awesome like a Tesla. If I were to speculate if Ford or Chevy had a true competitor car, it would likely be not nearly as awesome as the Tesla, and my willingness to spend more would drop to maybe 50% more. For an ICE, I'm not really willing to spend over about $36K, even if in the Model S class. For a non-Tesla BEV in the Model S class, I would probably spend up to about $54K (+50%). For a Tesla, I'd be willing to spend about $90K (+150%).

 

[eloder]

Porsche has some of the highest margin in the automotive industry and Tesla hasn't even turned a profit yet am I correct? So, who is catching up to who?

Tesla has pretty high margins, too. 20%+ on each MS with substantial reductions coming when the same batteries will be produced at the Gigafactory instead.

Tesla is like Amazon. Not profitable, but only because money is poured back into development and capex as soon as it comes in. If Tesla wanted to, they could instantly be profitable next quarter but it'd severely hamper their growth and M3 plans. Similar to Amazon.

 

[X-Wing]

Speaking of "willful blindness to the facts"...the 918 is not an EV. It has a tiny battery that will only power it for 12 miles according to the EPA.

I am aware and correctly pointed out that the 918 is a hybrid, that has a full EV mode by the way. The point is that Porsche has the technical know-how on the hardware and software, on the implementation and calibration. The 918 is as much as halo car as a technical proof of concept and engineering exercise. Porsche is brilliant enough to build the 918 out of that program and recover some of the R&D cost.

Porsche is not gonna entertain a BEV when the infrastructure is not ready and when there isn't a business case for it. They still got the 911 and other cows to milk for the time being.

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Tesla has pretty high margins, too. 20%+ on each MS with substantial reductions coming when the same batteries will be produced at the Gigafactory instead.

You are confusing operating profit with per unit margin. Much like Amazon, Tesla is choosing to make large capital expenditures to grow. Their stated vehicle margin is on the order of 30-35%.

Good point. Tesla also have direct sales model capturing the traditional dealership profits and sells ZEV credits.

 

[Zaxxon]

Over 100,000, surely. Currently assigned VINs are close to 110,000. Check the Model S delivery thread - e.g. someone with a VIN of 108404 just had their car enter production.

Actually, with the Q3 deliveries having been released today, we know: 89,904 as of 9/30. That includes a handful of Model X.