Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

I believe the number is closer to 20 million.

I stand corrected, it's about 8 million for the 18-30 population. There are about 11 million in the 30-40 group. So yes, 19-20 million in the group I initially cited.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factb...sternEuropeAndNorthAsiaPopulationPyramids.jpg

I have heard stories that the Russians quit collecting accurate numbers on the population about 15 years ago. Which means that the numbers of the 15 and under population is just made up. Anecdotally women are having a lot fewer children during that time, so the numbers may be much worse than reported.

Many European countries have the same sort of narrowing of the population among the younger generations
Population Pyramids by Region - The World Factbook

A number of East Asian countries are seeing similar narrowing
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factb...4f9dedd21/EasternAsiaPopulationPyramids-1.jpg

Thanks to immigration the US doesn't look too bad. Canada has some narrowing, but many other countries are worse
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factb...c697718037/NorthAmericaPopulationPyramids.jpg

This is a nice site with many population pyramids in the same place
Population Pyramids by Region - The World Factbook

 

[SmokyPeat]

The demographic situation in Ukraine is quite stark. The population there was in decline for the past 30 years, but the Russian invasion has really brutalized the demographics. It will probably take several generations to recover.

 

[wdolson]

The demographic situation in Ukraine is quite stark. The population there was in decline for the past 30 years, but the Russian invasion has really brutalized the demographics. It will probably take several generations to recover.

True, it is bad. Though Ukraine is probably more open to immigration than Russia is. Historically the territory that is now Ukraine had Turks and other people from the Middle East living in parts of the country. That could happen again.

 

[Buckminster]

Guardian - Interesting charts by country:
Barely 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can still defeat Russia, finds poll

 

[SmokyPeat]

I think many Europeans are understandably spooked by the prospect of another Trump presidency. They probably see the polls and don't realize that they are a poor representation of the electorate. There was also quite a lot of defeatism among Europeans in 1942. I'm confident that America will come through again.

 

[wdolson]

Guardian - Interesting charts by country:
Barely 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can still defeat Russia, finds poll

If Britons had been polled in June 1940 you would probably have seen a similar result.

There is a lot of pessimism about the US election, both inside and outside the US. There are still 8 1/2 months to go and it's almost certain that Donald Trump is going to be convicted of felonies in at least one jurisdiction in that time. Chances are high that it will be two convictions.

I am hopeful that Ukrainian aid can get through Congress before next January, but if it does pass, something is going to have to happen to get Mike Johnson out of the way. If it does get through it will likely turn around a lot of the pessimism about the war.

 

[Buckminster]

If it does get through it will likely turn around a lot of the pessimism about the war.

Spending will only make the war less popular. Trump will remind the voters that Ukraine want $486Bn to rebuild now. I said it would be a Trillion and people thought I was joking. That may not be sufficient now. But that was when I thought there was a chance that Ukraine would get the land back. I have no idea how much Ukraine would need to rebuild across current land. $100Bn?

Maybe the outcome of the war is dependent on whether Caterpillar can out-bribe the military industrial complex?

 

[SmokyPeat]

A little more color on the Russian warehouse drone attack:

Russian Troops Left Their Warehouse Doors Open. Ukrainian Drones Flew Right Inside—And Blew Up A Bunch Of Armored Vehicles.

The cost of the strike to the Ukrainians? Just $5,000, according to Censor.

www.forbes.com

 

[Crutonius]

Spending will only make the war less popular. Trump will remind the voters that Ukraine want $486Bn to rebuild now. I said it would be a Trillion and people thought I was joking. That may not be sufficient now. But that was when I thought there was a chance that Ukraine would get the land back. I have no idea how much Ukraine would need to rebuild across current land. $100Bn?

Maybe the outcome of the war is dependent on whether Caterpillar can out-bribe the military industrial complex?

US funding ran out in October of last year. Yet the Russians keep attacking. Where is this peace we were promised by the Elon musks of the world?

 

[X Fan]

From the Telegraph today-France & Germany still lag in Defense Spending (so does Canada but they benefit tremendously from being adjacent to the USA):

 

[lolachampcar]

If Europe is not proactively careful, they will be forced to spend a lot of their GDP on defense.

 

[Tiger]

If Europe is not proactively careful, they will be forced to spend a lot of their GDP on defense.

It shouldn't be a problem, we've had discount oil and gas for years, so it is a wash. /s

 

[Crutonius]

It shouldn't be a problem, we've had discount oil and gas for years, so it is a wash. /s

Makes me wonder. If Europe and Russia go to war does Russia give Europe a bulk discount on all the oil they'd need?

 

[CatB]

I hope this gift link works

https://wapo.st/3wmKjfc

Tl;dr some good charts and cautious optimism

 

[Buckminster]

US funding ran out in October of last year. Yet the Russians keep attacking. Where is this peace we were promised by the Elon musks of the world?

The process might be:

1. Agree that Ukraine is losing
2. Agree to negotiate
3. Strategise
   1. Sanctions
   2. Release sanctions
   3. Threats such as NATO involvement if negotiations fail
   4. Place remnants of Ukraine in NATO
   5. Other NATO extensions or agreements not to extend NATO east
   6. Drop or extend charges on Putin and team
   7. Exchange of money
   8. Increase / decrease trade / deals
   9. China etc. involvement
   10. Raise more money for Ukraine war effort if negotiations fail
4. Agree to strategy - will the west agree to dropping charges on Putin etc.?
5. Raise money and hand to Ukraine - don't spend yet! plus other items above
6. Negotiate
7. Agreement
8. Ceasefire
9. Exchange of prisoners
10. Post war payments, sanctions etc.
11. Rebuild

I recommend using the EU to wade through this bureaucracy...

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I hope this gift link works

https://wapo.st/3wmKjfc

Tl;dr some good charts and cautious optimism

The figures in that article for the Russian Dictator's economy seems to have been 'provided' by the Dictator himself... Trustworthy?... Why do publications like the WaPo keep believing a pathological liar?...

 

[Crutonius]

The process might be:

1. Agree that Ukraine is losing
2. Agree to negotiate
3. Strategise
   1. Sanctions
   2. Release sanctions
   3. Threats such as NATO involvement if negotiations fail
   4. Place remnants of Ukraine in NATO
   5. Other NATO extensions or agreements not to extend NATO east
   6. Drop or extend charges on Putin and team
   7. Exchange of money
   8. Increase / decrease trade / deals
   9. China etc. involvement
   10. Raise more money for Ukraine war effort if negotiations fail
4. Agree to strategy - will the west agree to dropping charges on Putin etc.?
5. Raise money and hand to Ukraine - don't spend yet! plus other items above
6. Negotiate
7. Agreement
8. Ceasefire
9. Exchange of prisoners
10. Post war payments, sanctions etc.
11. Rebuild

I recommend using the EU to wade through this bureaucracy...

Negotiation requires all parties involved. Putin has never engaged in any good faith negotiations in this matter. I don't see anything to suggest that he's interested in starting now. He believes Ukraine belongs to Russia and he will take as much of it as we allow him to. The only thing that will stop him is force.

These land grabbing regimes are like cancer. Once you find out you have cancer you don't wait for it to spread. You attack it with everything you have immediately. Waiting only makes it stronger.

I don't know why people keep mistaking Putin for a statesman. He's just a thug.

 

[Buckminster]

Negotiation requires all parties involved. Putin has never engaged in any good faith negotiations in this matter. I don't see anything to suggest that he's interested in starting now. He believes Ukraine belongs to Russia and he will take as much of it as we allow him to. The only thing that will stop him is force.

These land grabbing regimes are like cancer. Once you find out you have cancer you don't wait for it to spread. You attack it with everything you have immediately. Waiting only makes it stronger.

I don't know why people keep mistaking Putin for a statesman. He's just a thug.

I don't disagree too much with this but you asked me about the peace that Elon promised. That can only be an option if we want to negotiate.

 

[Tiger]

Makes me wonder. If Europe and Russia go to war does Russia give Europe a bulk discount on all the oil they'd need?

They give us oil and we give them chips and for their missiles /s

 

[iPlug]

In Russia, talking about Avdiivka losses apparently makes one suicidal:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760312097932492842

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760307463092384122