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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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We're finally hearing more about the successful Russian cyberattacks on Microsoft's cloud in January and other possibly related cyberattacks on US healthcare clinics and pharmacies. Microsoft is hapless and asking for government assistance. Some pharmacies haven't been able to take new orders in the last couple of weeks. And some healthcare clinics are looking to loans to pay their staff.

Do Nato rules include some provision for cyberattacks?
 
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Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
So Russia is at peak production now, and they are looking at a cliff when they run out of vehicles to rehab, then very little production for a while and eventually back to maybe 1/3 current production by 2028.

Reminds me of a graphic of German munitions production in WW2 that I came across about 40 years ago…and have never been able to find since then.

But I did find this online:

IMG_1969.jpeg




As indicated in the chart, Jan/Feb 1942 has an indices of production value of 100.

Army weapons production peaked in Q4 1944; army ammo production peaked on Q3 1944 with Q4 1944 the second highest.
 
From today’s Toronto Star:

(…) Bad news never gets better by ignoring it. The fact is the autocracies wish to replace the rules-based international order with a return to pre-1945 “might is right” brute force behaviour. It is past time for the democracies to declare this global campaign of the autocracies as “Cold War 2.0,” and take actions and adopt behaviours commensurate with such a clarion call…

 
What if Ukraine grants some conveniently placed and shaped territory as an Embassy (making it legally French territory, in theory) right in the line of advance without giving Russia time to communicate the change before the Russian units cross into it, would that trigger it?

Actually come to think of it, with how hard they've tried to hit Kyiv, how have they not hit anyone's Embassy yet by pure chance?

I believe on 'Ukraine the latest' one of the hosts half joked that Ukraine should annex itself to Poland for ~5 years. Sort of like how Hong Kong had a 99 year lease to the UK.
 

Cameron says UK ready to send more Storm Shadows to Ukraine if Germany sends Tauruses to UK

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron confirms the proposal of a missile ring exchange with Germany, supplying Ukraine with additional Storm Shadow missiles in exchange for Germany’s Taurus missiles, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russian aggression.

BY YURI ZORIA 09/03/2024 [...


 
RUMINT/Allegedly:

Chatter on Russian Telegram channels is that an A-50 AWACS was burned at the aerodrome in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation.

Ukrainian defenders launched a drone strike last night. Previously, they shot down two enemy A-50s.


twitter.com/mhmck/status/1766484514371506373?s=20

 
From the Official X-account of the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs:

The presence of Nato forces in Ukraine is not unthinkable. I appreciate the [french] President Emmanuel Macron’s initiative, because it is about Putin being afraid, not us being afraid of Putin.

Russia proved civilizationally incapable of adopting our values, despite our repeated encouragement.

We had to return to the original role of Nato. Russians have defined themselves – as a country that cannot live in peace with its neighbours.



twitter.com/PolandMFA/status/1766118567529869614?s=20

 
What if Ukraine grants some conveniently placed and shaped territory as an Embassy (making it legally French territory, in theory) right in the line of advance without giving Russia time to communicate the change before the Russian units cross into it, would that trigger it?

Actually come to think of it, with how hard they've tried to hit Kyiv, how have they not hit anyone's Embassy yet by pure chance?

The US has had a number of embassies attacked without triggering Article 5. The US embassy in Iran was captured and the staff held hostage for over a year in 1979-1981.

This is an incredibly simple statement which belies the work required. It seems they are heading in the right direction but it has been generations to get to where they are and it will likely take some time to get to where they (and we) would ideally like them to be provided they get the chance. Best to focus on giving them the chance.

Ukraine has been making progress rooting out Russian style corruption and turning the country more towards a western liberal democracy. But they are trying to change a culture and that is difficult work.

We're finally hearing more about the successful Russian cyberattacks on Microsoft's cloud in January and other possibly related cyberattacks on US healthcare clinics and pharmacies. Microsoft is hapless and asking for government assistance. Some pharmacies haven't been able to take new orders in the last couple of weeks. And some healthcare clinics are looking to loans to pay their staff.

I have read recently about a Russian hacker group breaking into Microsoft's internal network after they hacked the email addresses of some of the top executives. The last attack on Microsoft's cloud was in 2020 as far as I can see.

The ransomware attack on Change Healthcare appears to be a separate attack.

Russia does state sponsor these groups to hack western companies and government agencies, but these groups are more like contractors than actual arms of the government. The Russian government itself is very poor at cyber warfare, but there are a number of hacking groups based in Russia with whom the government has an arrangement: the government lets them exist as long as they do not attack anything Russian and they can be called upon by the government to to their thing from time to time.

I think it was an interview with Julia Ioffe, but I recall seeing an interview with someone who knew how this system works. She said that Russia really stepped up their game significantly between 2012 and 2016. In 2012 they were trying to interfere in the US election with no effect using a state run operation, but by 2016 they had started using hacker groups and it paid off spectacularly.

These recent attacks might be on direction from the Kremlin or they might be freelancers continuing to do their thing.

Do Nato rules include some provision for cyberattacks?

No, the rules were written long before cyberattacking was a thing.

Reminds me of a graphic of German munitions production in WW2 that I came across about 40 years ago…and have never been able to find since then.

But I did find this online:

View attachment 1026120



As indicated in the chart, Jan/Feb 1942 has an indices of production value of 100.

Army weapons production peaked in Q4 1944; army ammo production peaked on Q3 1944 with Q4 1944 the second highest.

I've seen similar production figures. Albert Speer stepped in at some point in 1942 and really started revolutionizing German industry. But then German industry was really falling apart by early 1945.

In some ways German industry was very inefficient. The initial order for the Tiger I was for 500 tanks and Henschel barely managed to fill it by the time production switched to the Tiger II in 1944. They did way too much customizing on the production line which slowed everything down.

Some years ago I read a comparison of US, Russian, and German war production. The US focused on cranking out large numbers of acceptable quality equipment, the Russians focused on just cranking out large numbers of whatever, and the Germans fussed to get things perfect. The Germans let the perfect become the enemy of the "good enough".

Russian manufacturing quality could be appallingly bad with T-34s built with giant gaps in the armor and the T-34's transmission was only good for 1500 miles before it wore out.

Japan has a similar production curve to Germany with production falling off a cliff due to B-29s raids and the heavy mining of the waters around Japan.

As the accuracy of modern field artillery goes up, the amount of shells needed goes down. A single howitzer can be worth a battery of WWll field guns

Russian field artillery is horrible for accuracy and gets worse as the barrels wear out. I read back in 2022 that it was considered good shooting for a Russian artillery battery to knock out one tank with less than 120 rounds. The Ukrainians with 155mm were doing the same job in less than 3.

RUMINT/Allegedly:

Chatter on Russian Telegram channels is that an A-50 AWACS was burned at the aerodrome in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation.

Ukrainian defenders launched a drone strike last night. Previously, they shot down two enemy A-50s.


twitter.com/mhmck/status/1766484514371506373?s=20


The A-50 fleet has been rendered mostly ineffective at this point. The Russians have lost enough of them that they can't do the job full time anymore.
 
"The A-50 fleet has been rendered mostly ineffective at this point. The Russians have lost enough of them that they can't do the job full time anymore."

How so? Is one A-50 by itself not capable of performing its functions as a control center and early warning detector? I do not believe these are team players, in that sense of the word.

What I DO believe is that, even if they haven't emasculated the jets, the Ukrainians at least have done so to their would-be crews. And this is a crucial point regarding any future conflicts from Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adria.... oops, got a bit carried away there...from Svalbard in the Barents to Sevasotpol in the you-know-where, NATO will be at least as capable as have become the Ukrainians in turning A-50s into plowshares.
 
RUMINT/Allegedly:

Chatter on Russian Telegram channels is that an A-50 AWACS was burned at the aerodrome in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation.

Ukrainian defenders launched a drone strike last night. Previously, they shot down two enemy A-50s.


twitter.com/mhmck/status/1766484514371506373?s=20

That would be terrific if another A-50 (and other aircraft) has been destroyed. Even if just the repair facility at Taganrog was badly damaged, that could keep the possibly previously damaged A-50 there out of commission for a good while. Here's some video of the drone strike:

 
My bad, I forgot /s from that line, but yeah, I see only one realistic option which is to continue the grind.
No, not a bad at all. I've thought the same thing but, having lived and worked in some unstable places, I have to remind myself that people can get used to a lot of things as "normal" over time. It seems to take an equal amount of time to turn the ship around and undo all the damage.