What if Ukraine grants some conveniently placed and shaped territory as an Embassy (making it legally French territory, in theory) right in the line of advance without giving Russia time to communicate the change before the Russian units cross into it, would that trigger it?
Actually come to think of it, with how hard they've tried to hit Kyiv, how have they not hit anyone's Embassy yet by pure chance?
The US has had a number of embassies attacked without triggering Article 5. The US embassy in Iran was captured and the staff held hostage for over a year in 1979-1981.
This is an incredibly simple statement which belies the work required. It seems they are heading in the right direction but it has been generations to get to where they are and it will likely take some time to get to where they (and we) would ideally like them to be provided they get the chance. Best to focus on giving them the chance.
Ukraine has been making progress rooting out Russian style corruption and turning the country more towards a western liberal democracy. But they are trying to change a culture and that is difficult work.
We're finally hearing more about the successful Russian cyberattacks on Microsoft's cloud in January and other possibly related cyberattacks on US healthcare clinics and pharmacies. Microsoft is hapless and asking for government assistance. Some pharmacies haven't been able to take new orders in the last couple of weeks. And some healthcare clinics are looking to loans to pay their staff.
I have read recently about a Russian hacker group breaking into Microsoft's internal network after they hacked the email addresses of some of the top executives. The last attack on Microsoft's cloud was in 2020 as far as I can see.
The ransomware attack on Change Healthcare appears to be a separate attack.
Russia does state sponsor these groups to hack western companies and government agencies, but these groups are more like contractors than actual arms of the government. The Russian government itself is very poor at cyber warfare, but there are a number of hacking groups based in Russia with whom the government has an arrangement: the government lets them exist as long as they do not attack anything Russian and they can be called upon by the government to to their thing from time to time.
I think it was an interview with Julia Ioffe, but I recall seeing an interview with someone who knew how this system works. She said that Russia really stepped up their game significantly between 2012 and 2016. In 2012 they were trying to interfere in the US election with no effect using a state run operation, but by 2016 they had started using hacker groups and it paid off spectacularly.
These recent attacks might be on direction from the Kremlin or they might be freelancers continuing to do their thing.
Do Nato rules include some provision for cyberattacks?
No, the rules were written long before cyberattacking was a thing.
Reminds me of a graphic of German munitions production in WW2 that I came across about 40 years ago…and have never been able to find since then.
But I did find this online:
View attachment 1026120
As indicated in the chart, Jan/Feb 1942 has an
indices of production value of 100.
Army weapons production peaked in Q4 1944; army ammo production peaked on Q3 1944 with Q4 1944 the second highest.
I've seen similar production figures. Albert Speer stepped in at some point in 1942 and really started revolutionizing German industry. But then German industry was really falling apart by early 1945.
In some ways German industry was very inefficient. The initial order for the Tiger I was for 500 tanks and Henschel barely managed to fill it by the time production switched to the Tiger II in 1944. They did way too much customizing on the production line which slowed everything down.
Some years ago I read a comparison of US, Russian, and German war production. The US focused on cranking out large numbers of acceptable quality equipment, the Russians focused on just cranking out large numbers of whatever, and the Germans fussed to get things perfect. The Germans let the perfect become the enemy of the "good enough".
Russian manufacturing quality could be appallingly bad with T-34s built with giant gaps in the armor and the T-34's transmission was only good for 1500 miles before it wore out.
Japan has a similar production curve to Germany with production falling off a cliff due to B-29s raids and the heavy mining of the waters around Japan.
As the accuracy of modern field artillery goes up, the amount of shells needed goes down. A single howitzer can be worth a battery of WWll field guns
Russian field artillery is horrible for accuracy and gets worse as the barrels wear out. I read back in 2022 that it was considered good shooting for a Russian artillery battery to knock out one tank with less than 120 rounds. The Ukrainians with 155mm were doing the same job in less than 3.
RUMINT/Allegedly:
Chatter on Russian Telegram channels is that an A-50 AWACS was burned at the aerodrome in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation.
Ukrainian defenders launched a drone strike last night. Previously, they shot down two enemy A-50s.
twitter.com/mhmck/status/1766484514371506373?s=20
The A-50 fleet has been rendered mostly ineffective at this point. The Russians have lost enough of them that they can't do the job full time anymore.