-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
- Status
True. However, 1% of global sales seems guaranteed, based on the percent of the market Tesla currently commands, in the segments it currently competes in.
1) The Model S is outselling every other Electric Vehicle being sold, including those that are practically being given away for free.
2) The Model S accounted for significantly more than 1% of all sales in many states and countries.
3) States and countries are becoming more (not less) supportive of Electric Vehicles.
4) The Model 3 will likely be on the list of Electric Vehicles eligible for incentives and tax exemptions in China.
5) Fuel Cell vehicles will never be successful. How much will insurance be for the one fuel cell vehicle currently being developed, assuming they are even insurable? No private insurance company will insure Nuclear Power plants. There is no precedent for the worst case scenario with fuel cell vehicles. The worst case scenario for hydrogen vehicles is beyond imagination.
6) I've been to China. China is very serious about Electric Vehicles. The highways in many developed cities, such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Beijing, and Shanghai, among others, where significant and sincere efforts are being made to reduce pollution, are practically built for a vehicle like the Model S. They are working very hard to encourage people to use public transportation, rather than using inefficient and cheap vehicles that heavily pollute, clog up streets, and cause significant problems for everyone.
Last edited:
mmd
Active Member
Fuel cells are not nuclear reactors. There are only chemical reactions, just like in a battery.
Fuel cell - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Anode Reaction: 2H[SUB]2[/SUB] + 2O[SUP]2−[/SUP] → 2H[SUB]2[/SUB]O + 4e[SUP]−[/SUP]
Cathode Reaction: O[SUB]2[/SUB] + 4e[SUP]−[/SUP] → 2O[SUP]2−[/SUP]
Overall Cell Reaction: 2H[SUB]2[/SUB] + O[SUB]2[/SUB] → 2H[SUB]2[/SUB]O
sub
Active Member
I think the point wasn't about nuclear it was about the worst case scenario, which in some peoples minds equals BOOM! I don't know the specifics on the tanks etc so this doesn't represent my opinion.
On a down day after almost hitting ATH, I was doing some historical perspective in another comment and came across this article from March, 2012:
Why Tesla Motors Is Betting On The Model S | Fast Company | Business + Innovation
Last year, we hit about 320,000 global sales of EVs including PHEVs. Tesla sold over 30,000 last year. In 2015, Tesla will likely sell 3-4x what Anderman thought in 2012. Again, this was arguably the "country's leading ... battery analyst." I don't think the analyst at UBS would be considered the country's leading stationary storage expert.
Why Tesla Motors Is Betting On The Model S | Fast Company | Business + Innovation
Last year, we hit about 320,000 global sales of EVs including PHEVs. Tesla sold over 30,000 last year. In 2015, Tesla will likely sell 3-4x what Anderman thought in 2012. Again, this was arguably the "country's leading ... battery analyst." I don't think the analyst at UBS would be considered the country's leading stationary storage expert.
So are we encouraging ignorance then? In "some people's minds" electric cars have a little problem with extreme heat, the kind which is orange and tends to destroy things. We, as EV advocates, should not be focusing on fearmongering nonsense. We only invite more of the same by doing so.
Hydrogen cars won't work. But it's not because they're all death machines which are going to blow up and be uninsurable. That's ridiculous. Lets all stop that.
BoerumHill
not great not terrible
Well we're north of where TSLA was at the close on Thursday. So we got that going for us, which is nice.
We're also WTF north of where most of us who are long bought, so meh, another day, another $25K into the black hole. Paper loss on the heels of a paper gain is like a paper cut. It smarts, but no real damage.
We're also WTF north of where most of us who are long bought, so meh, another day, another $25K into the black hole. Paper loss on the heels of a paper gain is like a paper cut. It smarts, but no real damage.
sub
Active Member
We are on the same team, I was simply explaining what DOKoolaid meant and did not want to give my own opinion because it is "uneducated" at this point. From everything I have seen and using common sense, Elon is right in calling them "fool cells".
NigelM
Recovering Member
Good points Al. Assuming though that Tesla delivers 15k cars in Q3 (which would be an incredible jump from the record 11,500 in Q2) I do wonder where the capacity point is in the delivery channel; do we assume that they could actually handle 19k deliveries in Q4 to make the 55k deliveries guidance? At some point Service Centers need to become even more prevalent or the existing ones need to get larger pretty quickly. Having said that I'm personally skeptical that we'll see more than ~2,000 Model X delivered before year end. Worth noting that under the 'long-term' headlines of the UBS report was the acknowledgement of 'short-term' risks of production complexities WRT Model X.
hockeythug
Active Member
Off topic but:
A profit of $10.7B compared to $7.7B last year on revenue of $49B compared to $37B last year. Also selling 48M of a product that will be refreshed in 3 months. I will be buying more for the non-taxable account. But yeah, it should effect tomorrow like IBM did today.
Last edited:
sahanim
Member
Might go down for now but if we get a good ER for tsla all the money bring pulled out of other tech stocks would help bring us above ATH
So... Tesla is bringing on a new body-in-white line. That reportedly is the last piece to be able to double production rate, but obviously there are a lot of new people too. So, can we use the Q3 plant shutdown as a guide to the ramp? But even before that, we have the problem of knowing when they even start up that line. It could be that if the Model X is further delayed, maybe they can build Model S on that line if the line is ready. But then we run into the forecasting of parts for the Model S.
I think Q3 is very hard to handicap and makes the Q2 ER particularly difficult for a short term investor. The risk that they have spent all this money on tooling up the factory for the Model X and won't be able to show much if any revenue in Q3 to counter the capex hit. Since Q2 delivery numbers are known and they're not spectacular and we know they aren't building that much more than they were building before, it's all on the new BiW line to make the numbers for Q3 and the year. What Tesla says at the Q2 ER going forward will have an outsized big impact on the stock price.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Short-term, yes. I do think that Tesla will launch Model X in Q3 with Founders cars as AlMc suggested; but I anticipate that the ramp will be much slower than previously expected. So the questions are:
1) Can Tesla make up for lower X deliveries by pumping out more Ss. Can we assume that Ludicrous etc will help with demand for the S?
2) If production can actually get that targeted number of cars produced, will the delivery channel be ready for those big numbers in Q4?
3) Will either of the above lead Tesla to walk back the 55k guidance number in the short term?
As Al suggested, I'm also pretty certain this will not have a long-term impact. In any case I'd love to be proven wrong and to get my Model X sooner rather than later.
This UBS note is just ludicrousI am all inn allready but found some more $ at my savings account. And that will be TSLA tomorrow. I can wait 5 years. Tesla will rise. We belive and we know the story has not changed. In Tesla we trust
I think TSLA is going to gyrate around a bit until ER, probably at whims of fear, uncertainty and doubt particular to the upcoming Model X launch and making the annual numbers as well as subject to the macro environment. So I would caution to dollar cost average, picking various low points to buy shares.
- Status
Similar threads
