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We are saying the same thing - CapEx will be backloaded - the more, the greater contribution to cash flow positive.
Another wild card is ZEV credits. I acknowledge the doubts some expressed, but I almost can't see how else they can be so close to being cash flow positive, even considering that they will re-engage ABL for the cars that are in transit at the end of Q3.
Another wild card is ZEV credits. I acknowledge the doubts some expressed, but I almost can't see how else they can be so close to being cash flow positive, even considering that they will re-engage ABL for the cars that are in transit at the end of Q3.
BTW, Elon's email adds clarity to this exchange during the Q2 ER:
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Sounds like a lot of innovation there. One last just housekeeping thing for Elon or Jason. You'd previously talked about the objective of profitability in the fourth quarter, but I know a lot's changing with the mix and also with the direct leasing. So is that also something that we should think as being pushed out a quarter?
Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman, Product Architect and CEO
Well, if you exclude Model 3 CapEx ramp, then – well in fact, really for Q3 and for Q4, Tesla would be profitable excluding the Model 3 CapEx ramp.
It almost looks like Elon allowed for a glimpse into his cards. So notwithstanding the bear view that good results in Q3 are "manufactured", they are, actually, totally natural and are consistent with what Elon expressed so well during the ER: "The real question on profitability is where do we set the dial on growth?" So here we have it, for the non-believers - a lesson of proper dialing expenses associated with growth to reveal a simple truth - that the Company is profitable if measured on the scale of growth that is consistent with the other major automobile companies.
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Sounds like a lot of innovation there. One last just housekeeping thing for Elon or Jason. You'd previously talked about the objective of profitability in the fourth quarter, but I know a lot's changing with the mix and also with the direct leasing. So is that also something that we should think as being pushed out a quarter?
Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman, Product Architect and CEO
Well, if you exclude Model 3 CapEx ramp, then – well in fact, really for Q3 and for Q4, Tesla would be profitable excluding the Model 3 CapEx ramp.
It almost looks like Elon allowed for a glimpse into his cards. So notwithstanding the bear view that good results in Q3 are "manufactured", they are, actually, totally natural and are consistent with what Elon expressed so well during the ER: "The real question on profitability is where do we set the dial on growth?" So here we have it, for the non-believers - a lesson of proper dialing expenses associated with growth to reveal a simple truth - that the Company is profitable if measured on the scale of growth that is consistent with the other major automobile companies.
I still don't quite understand that particular exchange. The question is about profitability but the reply talks about capital expenditures which only end up in profitability after amortization and so on. I guess it makes sense only if you take it that Elon heard the question as being about cash flow positive?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
All good posts, Vlad. The e-mail is as much about rallying the troops as it is about accounting. Although I'm optimistic, we've all seen Elon be overly-so at times in the past.
Either way, it sounds like we should see a good Q3.
Either way, it sounds like we should see a good Q3.
My second hypothesis is that he was actually talking about both CapEx and OpeEx vs. profitability AND cash flow. I know, sounds a little crazy, but I think that his mind was going way faster than his ability to express it in spoken word...
Gerardf
Active Member
Some rumours it was a car from 2013. No Autopilot in that case.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1716991/
Hopefully news sources will investigate this time before speculating it might be caused by AP
(well, that is not going to happen, but one can hope)
Tragic loss for all involved of course, no matter what caused it :-(
Edit: the poster is not sure about it. Unconfirmed.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1716991/
Hopefully news sources will investigate this time before speculating it might be caused by AP
(well, that is not going to happen, but one can hope)
Tragic loss for all involved of course, no matter what caused it :-(
Edit: the poster is not sure about it. Unconfirmed.
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Yea, I actually though about it, but then decided against it. I just concluded that I understand reasonably well where Elon was going with this, and with that understanding additional details were not material. I feel like the leaked email clarified this exchange to be what I thought it is.
I think you are referring to this exchange at the different time during the call:
Jason S. Wheeler - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, sure. On the profitability question, just reiterate what Elon said earlier. If we can execute on our production and our delivery goals in the second half of the year, we got a great chance to be non-GAAP profitable. So...
Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman, Product Architect and CEO
Yeah, excluding Model 3 CapEx...
149,777 shares available to short at Fidelity, with 10.5% interest.
The shares available for shorting yesterday before open were drawn to zero as day progressed.
It will be interesting to see if there are any takers today, although it would look masohistic, given the leaked email...
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Yeah! I'm also holding tons of January 2018 calls strike price 250, 290and 300 for the last 5 or 6 months now and some even longer all of them are down 50 to 60% currently but once the stock takes off which could happen anytime now then those calls will be super profitable in a heartbeat. TSLA is in a giant sideways consolidation/ base since early 2014 and SP has gone nowhere fast for 31 months now so when the eventual breakout comes it will be fast and furious. This may happen as soon as next month we'll seeHeh, I'm there with you, exactly the same thought process. Except I did it 18 months ago
On top of that, I was so certain in success that I played with long term options and lost bunch of time value
Anyway, nothing that $400 share price won't cure
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Anyone worried about the fatal accident/ fire impact from this AM on TSLA stock? I know it is extremely tragic but do you guys think it could be material to Tesla as a company? Thanks
(For what it's worth the stock is up nicely in premarket despite the tragic news)
(For what it's worth the stock is up nicely in premarket despite the tragic news)
I don't. It looks like the car was not engaged in burning, just the portion of the battery ripped out of the body of the car. The tragic death seem to be the result of car smashing into a tree at high speed.
SebastianR
Active Member
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Cool. I mean it's sad as to what happened but this is going to be more frequent as Tesla produces more cars. All cars have accidents including fatal ones and it's the law of numbers
Gerardf
Active Member
SCTY seems very low. I could not resist, will be adding 1k (shares) at opening hoping it will follow TSLA up.
The gap is to big.
In February Elon bought 570k shares at this level. http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-14LQRE/2792305062x0xS1408356-16-114/1408356/filing.pdf
The gap is to big.
In February Elon bought 570k shares at this level. http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-14LQRE/2792305062x0xS1408356-16-114/1408356/filing.pdf
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racer26
Active Member
Would be nice if Elon would get around to posting that blog though. Keep piling on the positive catalysts.
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