Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[madodel]

Quick thought on the AP blog post -- I wouldn't expect anything today or tomorrow as the tech news cycle will be dominated by Apple's product release. May make the most sense to post it this weekend.

I'm listening to the Apple Event stream, watching CNBC's response to Apple and reading the TMC forum at the same time. Apple will suck up a lot of the oxygen for a few days. Can't wait to see my TSLA shares outpace my AAPL in the next year or two.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

All of the people writing articles about the accident in Holland are using very unprofessional and unethical tactics to get clicks. It is irresponsible and immoral for major newspapers to be publishing dribble about this accident, before the facts are released. The only accurate, honest, and ethical way a journalist could write about the accident, as of this moment, would be to say a bad accident happened, and Tesla is compiling and verifying all available information before commenting about what happened.

 

[Vitold]

Geez the difference between the merger value of SCTY ($203 * .11 = $22.33) and the actual price of SCTY ($18.20) is getting huge. That's 23% upside if the merger goes through.

A gap this big really suggests the big market players know something us small timers don't.

Given the discrepancy it would be most profitable to short SCTY when wanting to short TSLA which maybe depressing SCTY value even further since retail investors are not so keen on buying SCTY.

 

[Quesder]

Wouldn't a 20% increase in 1 month be considered a break through (200-> 245)?

well yes, actually I want to say $230, but then I am afraid of the "dislike" so I said a higher price.

 

[Intl Professor]

Somewhat vaporware news about the Mercedes challenge to Tesla.

Why Daimler's Mercedes-Benz Is Rushing to Challenge Tesla Motors -- The Motley Fool

 

[dandurston]

This is nothing more than selling pressure caused by more selling pressure, and a lack of new information, not to mention thousands of BS articles written by people who are making a lot of assumptions.

Maybe so, but even baseless selling could be a problem if it changes how voters or creditors view SCTY. The lower SCTY drops, the more the TSLA offer looks overpriced and the more difficult it is for them to get loans.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

How the heck could IBTimes, or any slightly credible news source do such a horrible job interpreting a call to arms by Elon's, to do everything possible to surprise investors with a GAAP profit and a much faster than expected production target to mean Tesla is desperate for cash? Absolutely atrocious journalism.

Elon Musk Postpones Tesla Autopilot 8.0 Software Update Blog Post, Attacks Wall Street Critics Instead

There should be a thread called "Atrocious Journalism and Biased Reporting: Wall of Shame"

 

[MitchJi]

Somewhat vaporware news about the Mercedes challenge to Tesla.

Why Daimler's Mercedes-Benz Is Rushing to Challenge Tesla Motors -- The Motley Fool

Mercedes, like German rivals BMW (NASDAQOTH:BAMXF), Audi (NASDAQOTH:AUDVF), and Porsche, is feeling the need to step up its technological game to counter Tesla. The German luxury brands have long prided themselves on their advanced technologies. But increasingly, the perception is that the Silicon Valley upstart has leapt ahead. That has all four companies scrambling to respond with advanced electric vehicles of their own.

There are more practical reasons to fight back, too. Tesla is still a tiny company by global automaking standards, but every one of the 80,000 or so vehicles it'll sell this year are taking sales away from the similarly priced upper-tier models from the German brands.

At least, that's how the Germans see it. Coupled with the sense that Tesla's investors will continue to fund it indefinitely while it sells cars at a loss, the frustrations among engineers and product planners at Mercedes and the other companies are running high. Those frustrations are fueling the efforts to develop these new vehicles -- and to get them to market in time to take some sales away from Tesla's upcoming Model 3.

They are scrambling (wether they know it or not), to save themselves. If I was a Mercedes investor I'd be more concerned if I thought that anyone in a decision making capacity at Mercedes believes that Tesla is selling "cars at a loss". They couldn't possibly be that stupid could they ?

Maybe so, but even baseless selling could be a problem if it changes how voters view SCTY. The lower SCTY drops, the more the TSLA offer looks overpriced.

It's only a problem in the extremely unlikely event that it changes how the major fund managers view SCTY.

 

[Gerardf]

There was just a huge SCTY share sales order around 2.53.

SolarCity Corporation Common Stock (SCTY) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

The more I look at it, the more I am convinced some group has a big interest to push the SCTY price down to profit from Tesla share holders getting upset. Maybe someone here has a more detailed view of the transactions and parties involved.

 

[neroden]

you forgot Illinois

Wasn't me who forgot. From Find SolarCity Locations and Discover Solar Offered in Your State :

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Hawaii

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Washington

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/states/washington-solar

(No Illinois there.)

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

There was just a huge SCTY share sales order around 2.53. The more I look at it, the more I am convinced some group has a big interest to push the SCTY price down to profit from Tesla share holders getting upset. Maybe someone here has a more detailed view of the transactions and parties involved.

Are you sure it was a huge sell order? With how low volume has been all day, it seems unlikely anyone would be able to sell 157,000 + shares in one trade. Maybe Elon is adding to his position?

 

[phigment]

There was just a huge SCTY share sales order around 2.53.

SolarCity Corporation Common Stock (SCTY) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

The more I look at it, the more I am convinced some group has a big interest to push the SCTY price down to profit from Tesla share holders getting upset. Maybe someone here has a more detailed view of the transactions and parties involved.

Are you sure those aren't just a bunch of stop losses kicking in? That's right at the $18 mark

 

[Gerardf]

Are you sure those aren't just a bunch of stop losses kicking in? That's right at the $18 mark

Yes, I can not see that. I am just signalling something strange.

 

[sunhelm]

How the heck could IBTimes, or any slightly credible news source do such a horrible job interpreting a call to arms by Elon's, to do everything possible to surprise investors with a GAAP profit and a much faster than expected production target to mean Tesla is desperate for cash? Absolutely atrocious journalism.

Elon Musk Postpones Tesla Autopilot 8.0 Software Update Blog Post, Attacks Wall Street Critics Instead

There should be a thread called "Atrocious Journalism and Biased Reporting: Wall of Shame"

Wow, just wow. What sugar journalism is this?? The timeline is even wrong. The email to employees was 8/29, the twitter post on AP 8.0 was on 8/31. The author now suggests a time warp occurred.

 

[neroden]

Geez the difference between the merger value of SCTY ($203 * .11 = $22.33) and the actual price of SCTY ($18.20) is getting huge. That's 23% upside if the merger goes through.

A gap this big really suggests the big market players know something us small timers don't.

Maybe someone with a lot of clout is really trying to stop the merger. If they succeeded, that would be bad, for both stocks.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Geez the difference between the merger value of SCTY ($203 * .11 = $22.33) and the actual price of SCTY ($18.20) is getting huge. That's 23% upside if the merger goes through.

A gap this big really suggests the big market players know something us small timers don't.

small timers often equal bag holders while the players quietly exit through the rear...

I'm not saying that's what's going on here (I don't know) but this continually increasing spread is worrisome to me.

 

[neroden]

Are you sure those aren't just a bunch of stop losses kicking in? That's right at the $18 mark

If this is the case, I'd bet on a clever short seller kicking the stock down in order to trigger the stop loss orders, planning to buy in afterwards. This could just be froth.

 

[sunhelm]

Maybe someone with a lot of clout is really trying to stop the merger. If they succeeded, that would be bad, for both stocks.

I guess I don't get it. If someone were to stop the merger and has a lot of clout, wouldn't voting NO when the time comes a more direct impact to achieve that rather than SP manipulation?

 

[Ulmo]

I guess Elon Musk has been quiet to give Apple room for their keynote.

(At least I hope it's not because of some disaster as yet unheard of. Rockets go boom, so that was whatever.)

If Elon Musk is trying to find a good time to not have trouble so his good news shines out: just shine, don't worry about trouble. Trouble will always come. Solutions and progress are how you get away from them. I feel like the image of him is of someone who lost sight of that. But, that's probably more due to the opaqueness that's around them these days than any real lack of insight.

 

[Gerardf]

Are you sure it was a huge sell order? With how low volume has been all day, it seems unlikely anyone would be able to sell 157,000 + shares in one trade. Maybe Elon is adding to his position?

No, I am not sure. I have no view on that. The transaction did however LOWER the shareprice, thus I assume it is not a big BUY order.
Someone wanting to get rid of a lot of SCTY shares at best price would not sell so many in short time.

Could it be a large short order ?