I think there will be a checkmate next week
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The government can stop people,corporations, and "entrepreneurs" from killing people,
The State can stop scientist from killing people in experiments.
Various forms of regulations the State has legitimate State interest.
The State does not have the right to stop freedom of movement or the seeking of knowledge.
Neither the US nor the UN has sovereignty over Mars.
And Musk was f'ing kidding about nuking Mars. Good f'ing grief.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
You're absolutely right. I filed my lending paperwork and today my shares were lent out at 14.5% interest which as I understand from one of your posts now dropped to 11% or so
In any case all my shares in Roth IRAs were lent out and 74% of my shares in my margin account were lent out
I'm excited because even at 10% interest rate I'll make a killing on a daily basis from interest alone
With my decent holdings in TSLA my daily interest is highly satisfactory and I plan to continue this lending program indefinitely that is as long as shorts desire this stock
Thank you for all your informative posts.
"I think there will be a checkmate next week"I think there will be a checkmate next week
that's a long game... usually mine are 5 minutes.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
It's called Masters Securities lending agreement or MSLA in Fidelity Fully paid lending program
Reply to moderator edit:
The point is whether the quarters result are indicative of a fundamental change or a one time event in order to do a cap raise.
An extreme example is that Tesla can easily be gaap profitable if it stops all investments. So being gaap profitable really means nothing if it is a one off based on non sustainable efforts
Smart Investors are smart enough to know when a company has done some window dressing vs hit some sustainable milestones.
That is why they push on things like margins and investments in the earnings call.
Tl:dr. Gaap profitability is less important than how you got gaap profitable. What is relevant about gaap is it indicates that following your plan, you have sustainable profitability.
If the new Tesla plan is deep discounts at the end of the quarter and cost cutting, that is ok. But that is different from what they did before so it is either a Change in strategy or window dressing to try and convince investors they are running the business witj gaap profitable goals.
Last edited:
adiggs
Well-Known Member
That's certainly my intention (continuing as long as the stock is desired). For my own investing, I tend to think first in terms of dividends, with the idea that at some point, I'll be able to live off the income from those dividends. TSLA has been the odd duck in my portfolio. With short interest, it's become the best payer of the lot
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Couple of thoughts: you seem to be very analytical and numbers oriented. If you play short term game, it doesn't matter, but if you're trying to play short for the long-term, you're at distinct disadvantage with this approach. This is not steady state company, it's startup, just a huge startup. Startups are this whirlwind of activities, growth, and pivot all at the same time, and they're unpredictable. You can't model them properly, and their value is based on where they'll be in 5 or 10 years. Which no one can predict with high level of accuracy.
I said once and still believe it, that Elon runs Tesla in the state of controlled chaos, where delivery of no particular goal is assured, but overall output is very high. Hence Tesla fails on short term predictions, but, have you looked at their growth trajectory last 3-4 years? It's stellar.
When deciding to invest in TSLA or not at first, I looked at the history of the company. I spent hundreds of hours reading up on them. If you check them carefully, you will see what they've gone through, to be where they are, is already amazing; they've climbed supposedly insurmountably obstacles. I've had benefit of working in a successful startup, and I know what it is when amazing team comes together - it's unstoppable. Well, I think that's Tesla team now, and that gives me confidence to keep my money there.
And if we boil down this to personality, I believe there are some people that are such forces of nature, they are simply unstoppable. You know, from history: Gingis-Khan, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk...
These people are worth betting on. Now, I happen to think that Elon has already overtaken Jobs in most metrics, except financial, but that will not increase my credibility with you. But c'mon, Pixar, phone and tablet, vs Paypal, cars and rockets? I know what my 5-year old will vote
Welcome to the thread. I like how you've expressed yourself and your thoughts clearly, but it seems to be mis-directed. Your concerns about Musk (that he's fallable, not necessarily Steve Jobs, is seen as a genius when he might not be, seeks to lead the conquest of mars, etc) are misplaced. All those concerns are shared and recognized by some of us rational longs (or at least I think I am one of them anyway). Musk might've been labeled and characterized as the-next-Steve-Jobs/a-genius/leader-of-the-free-world/etc, but his actions demonstrate that he doesn't agree with it. He took the blame for the "hubris" in the model X. He believes he gets twice as much done as anyone else, because he's willing to work twice as hard as anyone else (read "The Engineer" by Erik Nordeus - precedes Ashley Vance's book), not because of his intellect. His upbringing was all about working hard (his mom still works). He's notorious for expecting the moon of his employees, and they either deliver or quit. He doesn't tolerate idiots (hung up on the phone interview with Bill Alpert). That is the source of Tesla capabilities, as well as its bane. He will either run out of superstar employees, or they'll go to the stars.
So your opinions about his foibles are shared with me, but I'm just willing to bet that he succeeds, not because he makes perfect decisions, or has the power of persuasion. Dedicated leadership like his attracts dedicated followers, and that type of mindset generally overcomes all bounds. Keep in mind that JB Straubel is still Tesla's CTO too and contributes just as much to Tesla's success.
Drivin made a remark about the pointlessness of Q3 profitability as it's not repeatable. That thought fails to understand that Wall Streets skepticism with Tesla is based on the myth that Tesla loses money on every car sold. Just like battery fires were proven to be baseless, a Q3 that's GAAP profitable will crush that myth, even if Q4 is a huge loss. It will be obvious by then that Tesla's spending is about growth and not propping up a potemkin village. It crushes a major pillar of the short thesis. Everything else is just doubt for the sake of doubt.
larmor
Active Member
Profitability for TM is only about time and timing. It may never come on paper, since the mission of the company is to make EVs. MS and MX were made to subsidize the model 3 or other mass market EV which requires development, time and resources. The MS and MX by default have to make money in order to do this. The side benefit is that MS and MX are really good at what they do, and are comparable to high end luxury cars, no small feat for a 10 year old company competing with the likes of mercedes, bmw, and porsche. If the MS/MX serve as an impetus to move the mainstream manufacturers to EV then the mission is accomplished. just my 0.02.
PaulRocket
Member
By the way, until now Tesla delivered 207 Model S and 518 Model X this month in Norway. Rest of Europe is similar... can't wait for next week!
Gerardf
Active Member
I would not be surprised to see a heavy short attack at opening, in a last effort to try to push the SP below 203 / 200 before all the good news comes out.
You are quickly earning the title of Cheif hater in this thread.
Also what you said is pure rubbish. Ironically it's pretty similar to how incumbent auto companies used to soak about Tesla. Assuming the old and extremely inefficient ways of doing things are the best, or even remotely good when better ways present themselves.
You mention the phds warning of auto driving, yet leave out the fact that they are all being irrational, since anything that decreases total accidents or driving deaths is net beneficial to three human race even if that technology is imperfect.
I don't think you leave these things out on purpose, I think you are just the type of person to habitually build an extremely strong position and make it part of your emotional being, but without very much research or depth. It's similar to how people who believe in conspiracy theories operate.
Also, your deep seated/possibly subconscious hatred for the wealthy comes out often in your posts and clearly clouds your judgement on things like this.
Lastly, you will receive plenty of dislikes because there is no button for "this post is objectively incorrect", which yours was.
Nah, is just another shitty fund making a linear projection because they simply aren't good at what they do, or are too conservative and would never want to seem crazy or end up wrong.
One caveat. If the other auto majors drag ass on getting their electrics ramped up it could take that long. Tesla (and the other electric upstarts) won't be able to reach 12% very quickly alone.
Can I ask people to remember to quote the drivel that they are replying to, so that people who are ignoring the drivel won't see that reply either? The "ignore" feature works really well, except for no-context replies.
Tesla (TSLA) Checks Show Solid Model X Orders, Aggressive Model S Discounting - Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson expects Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q3 Model X deliveries to be solid, and he thinks this may provide some reprieve for the bulls. However, he also thinks the declining quality for Model S demand poses ASP and margin risk and calls longer-term demand into question. Overall, he remains cautious.
Erickson explained, "Based on conversations with 20 Tesla sales centers around the United States, we expect deliveries to be relatively in line with our estimate of 22,000 deliveries, or 90% y/y growth. Based on our checks, we think Model X deliveries could actually be a bit above our forecast of 9,000 while we expect Model S deliveries to be more in line with to slightly below our estimate of 13,000."
The analyst continued, "While we think Tesla is tracking to the low end of its previously stated delivery target of 80,000-90,000 for 2016, it is using various discounting mechanisms to do so, which is cause for worry. First, we found continued traction of the $9,000-cheaper 60 kWh Model S versus the 75 kWh option, which is dilutive to gross margin by an estimated 1000 basis points. Second, we think as many as a third of current Model S orders are coming from Model 3 reservation holders opting for the newly created two-year (and less expensive) lease. Finally, we found Tesla has been employing a deeper discounting formula to drive sales of inventory models, with all offers expiring this Friday, the last day of the quarter."
Erickson concluded, "While we believe the SolarCity (SCTY) merger will ultimately get done, we think the car business, which should account for more than 90% of revenue if the SCTY deal goes through, has several hurdles yet to clear, namely how it will bridge demand all the way to Model 3 late next year. Bulls could be optimistic about strong deliveries (which we expect); however, Tesla's clear tactics to improve optics in the face of slowing demand would likely outweigh positive deliveries and as a result keep us cautious on TSLA."
Pacific Crest reiterated a Sector Weight rating on Tesla Motors.
Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson expects Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q3 Model X deliveries to be solid, and he thinks this may provide some reprieve for the bulls. However, he also thinks the declining quality for Model S demand poses ASP and margin risk and calls longer-term demand into question. Overall, he remains cautious.
Erickson explained, "Based on conversations with 20 Tesla sales centers around the United States, we expect deliveries to be relatively in line with our estimate of 22,000 deliveries, or 90% y/y growth. Based on our checks, we think Model X deliveries could actually be a bit above our forecast of 9,000 while we expect Model S deliveries to be more in line with to slightly below our estimate of 13,000."
The analyst continued, "While we think Tesla is tracking to the low end of its previously stated delivery target of 80,000-90,000 for 2016, it is using various discounting mechanisms to do so, which is cause for worry. First, we found continued traction of the $9,000-cheaper 60 kWh Model S versus the 75 kWh option, which is dilutive to gross margin by an estimated 1000 basis points. Second, we think as many as a third of current Model S orders are coming from Model 3 reservation holders opting for the newly created two-year (and less expensive) lease. Finally, we found Tesla has been employing a deeper discounting formula to drive sales of inventory models, with all offers expiring this Friday, the last day of the quarter."
Erickson concluded, "While we believe the SolarCity (SCTY) merger will ultimately get done, we think the car business, which should account for more than 90% of revenue if the SCTY deal goes through, has several hurdles yet to clear, namely how it will bridge demand all the way to Model 3 late next year. Bulls could be optimistic about strong deliveries (which we expect); however, Tesla's clear tactics to improve optics in the face of slowing demand would likely outweigh positive deliveries and as a result keep us cautious on TSLA."
Pacific Crest reiterated a Sector Weight rating on Tesla Motors.
At IB: trade platform quote:
TSLA Borrow fee rate 36,44%, 31,3k available
SCTY Borrow fee rate 53,56%, 30,5k available
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
