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If Tesla does succeed in getting first mover advantage on mobile robots, then this valuation seems low to me. As just one use, mobile robots should replace almost all farming labor. Picking grapes seems a lot easier than the FSD march of nines needed for safe driving.Update to my target TSLA valuation:
Bot
$25k profit per bot per annum (50% of robotaxi but will rise significantly post 2030)
200 million bots in fleet in 2030 (4x autos as significantly simpler - smaller battery etc. - there are 728m iPhones in the world)
P/E ratio of 50
25*200*50=$250T
Non bot
Remains $125T
Total = $375T
If you mean that the harder parts of the bot are facial expressions and body language, I would disagree. In the case of Ameca and other "lifelike" bots, this indeed takes a whole lot of engineering but these are steps Tesla is skipping completely by the design of the bot (blank, unmovable face/head). Boston Dynamics also does not spend engineering resources on this (see Atlas: all engineering goes towards the mobility of the bot to end up with a useful product as quickly as possible (for example for rescuing operations)).I'm upping my bull case by 2 years after watching Ameca, it would seem that some of the harder parts of the bot might already be solved (partially), at least by this company. Packaging is hard, keeping weight and size down as as it gets lighter will take less to power.
I now think the hardest thing might actually be the AI needed for functional inference.
I didn't and complete agree with you. Balance, mobility, articulation, fluidity, smoothness and sound isolation. Imagine hearing hissing, gears and other mechanical noises from the bot. That would get old real quick.If you mean that the harder parts of the bot are facial expressions and body language, I would disagree.
Regarding Ameca, I only saw your posted video. I had the impression it couldn't walk around. I'll need to look into this further when I have more time.I didn't and complete agree with you. Balance, mobility, articulation, fluidity, smoothness and sound isolation. Imagine hearing hissing, gears and other mechanical noises from the bot. That would get old real quick.
It wasn't the face at all and I think that is largely the least interesting part of the demo IMO.
The motion of the shoulders and arms was very interesting however as it demonstrated a huge range of motion while looking like an elegant design and packaging.
Just to be clear, I don't think it walks, the shoulders and arms are the interesting thingsRegarding Ameca, I only saw your posted video. I had the impression it couldn't walk around. I'll need to look into this further when I have more time.
Year | Bear Case (6% chance) | Base Case (60% chance) | Weighted Average | Bull Case (30% chance) | Hyperbull (4% chance) | Catalysts |
2022 | 1302 | 1713 | 1998 | |||
2023 | 2147 | 3445 | ||||
2024 | 2976 | 5005 | 1st robotaxi fare, Semi | |||
2025 | 3910 | 7906 | Dojo as a service, FSD licensing, Tesla Bot | |||
2026 | 4690 | 9946 | $25000 Tesla, half of new vehicles electric: ICE vehicle sales collapse | |||
2027 | 5761 | 12917 | 12917 | Insurance annual profits 0.5 billion, Tesla delivers 10+ million vehicles | ||
2028 | 16152 | AGI, progress with TeslaBot, gigantic fleet of subscribers to FSD | ||||
2029 | 8436 | 21332 | Deliveries of 12-13-14+ million, 0.25 trillion profit | |||
2030 | 9930 | 27201 | 15 million vehicles, hundreds of billions of profits, bankruptcy, collapse of other automakers | |||
2031 | 11476 | 33659 | 20 million vehicles, fleet of 80+ million, most paying for FSD subscriptions. Not including profits from Robotaxi service |
Economy is currently in the order of $1500T. 100x is $150,000t. My $375t valuation would be just 0.25%. Should I increase?
You're in the wrong thread. We talk in trillions and quadrillions here. Tesla Network could potentially replace all road usage and much more. Tunnels, freight, take away, hotels (sleeping in the RT on your way to your destination. The list goes on.But the global Taxi business is only 69 billion dollars (in 2019)... Your numbers become a fairy tale opposed to that.
This is a wildcard but is straightforward to estimate.
What if the Bot actually works really well and there’s eventually an army of ten billion of them (wild guess of one bot per person) and each one consumes 5 kWh per day on average? That’s another 50 TWh of electricity needed daily or about 20 PWh (peta) per year, which is 10% of our current consumption.
If we have 10 bots per person it’d be 200 PWh per year which would by itself double human energy consumption.
100 bots per person --> 2000 PWh/yr --> 20x human energy consumption
Rephrased for clarity: "Tesla with solved FSD, an operational robotaxi network, a humanoid robot business which replaces much of human labor, and has solved for artificial general intelligence will be worth at least 100x the automotive business. This makes the EV business a rounding error in the valuation. If we solve FSD, we will have solved the hardest remaining problem to becoming the largest company in the history of humanity."