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Tesla drivers are safer than Tesla autopilot.

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renim

Active Member
Apr 6, 2013
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Tesla fatal crash rate with Autopilot could still be no better than with human drivers

best shot for a non provocative title.

anyway, the irony is, Tesla drivers have a lower fatality rate than Tesla autopilot, which really is that Tesla drivers don't use Tesla autopilot correctly, which really is that Tesla does not communicate train users in Tesla autopilot to an standard which makes it safer than human drivers...
Seems all Teslas are driven by humans, so far.:cool:
 
I have some serious doubts about these numbers. There's a lot of guesses in it and there's a lot of issues when your sample size is 3 deaths.

To be fair, you would also need to compare the death rates on the roads used with autopilot to the ones that aren't. It may be that autopilot has a higher rate, but then again, they may be on more dangerous roads and would have a lower rate.
 
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To throw my purely anecdotal/subjective evidence into the pot, my experience with Autopilot is that TACC is a huge safety win (not that you can trust it completely; you still have to pay close attention), but Autosteer is a convenience feature only which does not noticeably improve safety, and may on balance degrade it in the population overall. The only way Autosteer is going to be safer is when the driver somehow becomes incapacitated (heart attack, falls asleep, other loss of consciousness). In this case Autosteer will eventually notice that the driver is not putting force on the wheel (unless the driver happens to be slumped over on the wheel or using a defeat device) and bring the car to a stop. There's at least a chance it would do this before hitting something. The nags may also wake you up if you fall asleep, unless you fall asleep with your wrist hooked over the wheel for example.

On the flip side, I think Autosteer when misused (trusted too much) makes people less safe. It makes you more likely to fall asleep in the first place. It makes many drivers more likely to take their eyes off the road or their hands off the wheel for a variety of reasons. I think the fatalities we've seen fall into this category. Granted there is an element of misuse here, but face it, people are people.

So you have on the one hand some extremely unlikely scenarios where Autosteer might save you, and some very likely scenarios where people will misuse it and be less safe. Make of that what you will. Also note that ACC and AEB, which are without a doubt safety enhancers overall even with TACC's flaws, are also available in quite a lot of other makes of car by now, and the better versions of it are really just about as good as Tesla's (better in some ways, worse in others).
 
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It seems clear that we don't really know why Autopilot helps or hurts overall safety. We each probably have a sense about how using Autopilot affects safety, but we have no obvious way to know if our sense is correct or not.

One reason for this is that Autopilot may be safer under some conditions than under others. I see myself instinctively reacting to this by how much attention I pay when AP is active. If I am on a low density / high quality highway I have more confidence in Autopilot than I do in a high density highway interchange with merging going on, so I'm a bit less laser focused on monitoring than I am . If all my driving were done on empty highways, I would probably think it was very safe. If all in high density city highways, not so much.

That said, it's encouraging that there are some statistics showing AP to be safer on average, although we don't really know why. It's clear that it doesn't drive as well as humans do when we are paying attention. But of course we aren't always paying attention. Is it safer being on Autopilot (as overall accident statistics seem to indicate) because most people have a little nervousness about it, so they pay attention better when it is on? Or is it that Autopilot prevents more inattention accidents than the accidents it causes by being less capable than and attentive driver? Or something else?
 
Perhaps my training as a pilot, I was "trained" to think about safety
- where to land if engine failed - keeping an eye out for other plaines - pay attention
- examine (walk around/inspect the vehicle) low tires, leaks wipers, fluid levels
- every time I bought gas, I'd check things. (now more like monthly as cars are so reliable now)
- check for error conditions before moving - do all the controls work?

When I read (and see) how people "show off/use" auto-pilot I'm dumbfounded. People don't seem to know that driving is the most dangerous thing most of us ever do. Never expected "auto-pilot" to magically fly the plane, I was the captain. Auto-Pilot assisted in the driving task. Perhaps people should "get training or at least watch a training video" before they are allowed to use auto-pilot. You know, just like we do with guns. Both are deadly.

Every Tesla crash had a driver/captain.
 
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That's just bad statistics and terrible hit piece. First of all he was using a grand total of one fatal accident to derive that 2016 autopilot fatality rate. As for non-autopilot accidents there is no doubt the number he used was under-reported. How in the world could anyone get an accurate tally of every accident happened in the world just by checking media reports? The extremely low Tesla accident rate from human drivers just reflects this. If you believe that then you have to believe China has safest human drivers in the world. On the other hand autopilot fatal accident is less likely to be under-reported. Few in the media would miss reporting one when it happens.

As for Tesla it is indeed in a better position to know the accident rate. It should know every accident that's serious enough that an OTA notice was sent to Tesla and it knows whether it was driven under autopilot or not by looking at the log. I kind of think that data is shared with NHTSA, or if not the agency certainly will request the data from Tesla.
 
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