Now this conversation should be in the other thread!
I would bet that TSLA follows all other high beta and growth stocks and goes down. Honestly, if you think macros are going to be negative, it wouldn't be the end of the world to pull out of the market entirely, sit on cash, and then go back in at the first sign of anything going well. And I'm not talking about just TSLA. Pulling that trigger seems hard, though, doesn't it?
The next shoe to drop for TSLA will be that Chinese consumers are not buying cars this quarter. Whether or not this directly impacts Tesla sales is irrelevant, the market perception will be negative. On the other hand, Tesla does sell direct, so maybe they'll benefit. I was surprised that TSLA didn't crash on Friday after this article came out:
Coronavirus nearly halts China car sales, down 92%
Well, I was actually following an extremely aggressive strategy with TSLA from November, and I finally deleveraged a bit last week (on Tuesday). My problem is I am still uber-bullish on TSLA (they will keep producing/selling/expanding) but I was getting more concerned by macros. However, I feel like many investors are now jumping on TSLA before Q1 deliveries (exactly the case you show with the China car sales!). Maybe they are betting on Moody upgrades, or early numbers. I did not expect this, I thought I had more time before end of March and so I am not sure if I should get in now. I feel like there could be another rally and I was wondering if in the past there have been stocks on a run becoming beneficiary of a larger market downturn (not a recession, just a moderate dip as central banks will cut interest rates again, and the party will continue - remember January 2019).
We'll soon see I guess.