Tesla Semi

[Buckminster]

50,000 in 2023.

 

[RobStark]

50,000 in 2023.

Tesla aims to produce 50,000 Tesla Semi next year

Since Tesla takes about a year to ramp up production, the company is currently looking to produce 50,000 Tesla Semi units per year in 2024.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Buckminster]

Elon will be there in person on 1st December at PepsiCo.

 

[Cosmacelf]

50,000 in 2023.

Actually, I believe he said they are aiming for 50,000 units in 2024. Which is a huge number, by the way. If they manage that, they are going to drastically eat into the number one and two class 8 truck manufacturers.

Tesla aims to produce 50,000 Tesla Semi next year

Since Tesla takes about a year to ramp up production, the company is currently looking to produce 50,000 Tesla Semi units per year in 2024.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Buckminster]

I'm not laughing, I'm pointing out the crazy low effective price/ margin Tesla could achieve.
900kWh semi = (70-35-10)*900 = $22,500 before pack assembly. That's less than a replacement Class 8 engine!

 

[Christine69420]

Actually, I believe he said they are aiming for 50,000 units in 2024. Which is a huge number, by the way. If they manage that, they are going to drastically eat into the number one and two class 8 truck manufacturers.

Tesla aims to produce 50,000 Tesla Semi next year

Since Tesla takes about a year to ramp up production, the company is currently looking to produce 50,000 Tesla Semi units per year in 2024.

www.teslarati.com

It is a huge number. But I know that they have many orders from Norway. And probably from other countries too. So huge is good!

 

[Buckminster]

Dang, someone's grumpy.

Let's assume the 2170s going into the Semi are a full MW (original specs, although probably a tad more efficient). Let's also assume the cost of those, at the pack level is $120/kWh (Tesla is probably less, but let's factor in some inflation).

Pack cost = $120,000/kWh minus $45,000/kWh = $75,000 cost for the pack after IRA production tax incentives.

Tesla is selling them for $180,000 (or they were when the prices were up for the Semi - let's assume some commercial buyers have locked that in).

$180,000 - 75,000 = $105,000 to break even. Add in R&D, and cost of the cab itself, and that still leaves a lot of room for a healthy profit margin.


Additionally, beginning Jan 1, 2023, the buyers are eligible for a $40,000 IRA tax break on purchases of the Semi. Given that Tesla has removed pricing from their order page, let's make a reasonable assumption they will plan to raise the price, and capture half of that ($20,000 price increase).


What am I missing here? R&D costs are amortized over multiple years, the facility these are built in is not close to a GF in size, it's relatively cheap to build.

How would this not be a money-printing machine?


(and look at that, far less than 2000 words).


EDIT - I could fully see the Semi being a loss for the first year without the IRA in place. But with it, that's a lot of extra money coming Tesla's way, for a product they had already planned out years ago (and probably planned for it to be reasonably profitable).

 

[Buckminster]

Semi 500 Miles at full capacity with full cargo load on level ground, no cargo restrictions compared to a regular class 8 truck.

 

[mongo]

And this from the elusive Zangler... still haven't said where he's getting his info, but this might be the reason the Giga Nevada folks are so secretive:
View attachment 865730View attachment 865731

Hummm.
Reads like 3 days from start to finish?
Wonder how many they can do in parallel...

 

[wipster]

Hummm.
Reads like 3 days from start to finish?
Wonder how many they can do in parallel...

My thoughts as well... can't get anything out of him, he's holding his source pretty close to the vest.

 

[mongo]

My thoughts as well... can't get anything out of him, he's holding his source pretty close to the vest.

Given the plan is semi at Austin, it may be fairly small mumber of stations, especially since most parts likely need a bridge/ gantry crane.
Would love to see the state of incoming parts/ assemblies. A rolling chassis (no motors) would cut steps down and eliminate a lot of material handling stuff.

 

[wipster]

Looks like we might have something to look forward to today:

 

[mongo]

I'm not sure 3 days to assemble a Semi is a good thing. By the end of 2023 they are planning to produce ~150 per day. But maybe they will need a new/additional assembly line somewhere else.

But at that rate, assuming parts are available, maybe we will see 30-50 delivered in early December...

Three days end to end on temp equipment isn't so bad. For example, if there are 10 equal time stations, that's 3 trucks a day. 8hrs*4days*2 people per station = 48 labor hours.

Austin will have production equipment and more stations.

 

[wipster]

Given the plan is semi at Austin, it may be fairly small mumber of stations, especially since most parts likely need a bridge/ gantry crane.
Would love to see the state of incoming parts/ assemblies. A rolling chassis (no motors) would cut steps down and eliminate a lot of material handling stuff.

According to another Zanegler tweet, much of the hold up is due to a single supplier. That would be frustrating as hell!!!

 

[mongo]

According to another Zanegler tweet, much of the hold up is due to a single supplier. That would be frustrating as hell!!!

There is always a weakest link...
And yes...
Key is to make the most of the time they have so that once that bottleneck is removed, the others have been improved.
Could be the new single motor axle, that seemed like a late change.

 

[wipster]

An older but informative post from this dude:

 

[wipster]

So how long will it take for Tesla, or someone like the manufacturers listed on the website below, to build a trailer specifically for use with the Tesla Semi? There are many advantages that a trailer could add to the semi, such as additional batteries, regenerative braking, and solar panels. Not to mention the trailer itself having it's own motors and steering allowing it to remotely controlled.

Top 25 Semi-Trailer Manufacturers - Metalphoto of Cincinnati

Take a look at our list of the top 25 semi-trailer manufacturers operating in North America today.

www.mpofcinci.com

 

[mongo]

So how long will it take for Tesla, or someone like the manufacturers listed on the website below, to build a trailer specifically for use with the Tesla Semi? There are many advantages that a trailer could add to the semi, such as additional batteries, regenerative braking, and solar panels. Not to mention the trailer itself having it's own motors and steering allowing it to remotely controlled.

Top 25 Semi-Trailer Manufacturers - Metalphoto of Cincinnati

Take a look at our list of the top 25 semi-trailer manufacturers operating in North America today.

www.mpofcinci.com

I'm not sure it's worth decking out trailers due to utilization. May be better to put the money and parts into the tractors.
Automated trailer yard tugs could be handy once they standardize auto air line connections and powered jack legs. (Or Optimus? )

 

[wipster]

I'm not sure it's worth decking out trailers due to utilization. May be better to put the money and parts into the tractors.
Automated trailer yard tugs could be handy once they standardize auto air line connections and powered jack legs. (Or Optimus? )

True for independent contractors, but what about PepsiCo, UPS, Walmart, et al who would own the trailers and utilize them on a consistent basis? I just think the value add would potentially be tremendous. But it will take time to get out of the current mindset, I agree.

Time will tell.

 

[wipster]

When I see this concept from Airstream, it gets me thinking about other uses:

eStream Concept Travel Trailer | Airstream Electrifying Adventure

A fully electric concept that brings to life multiple innovations.

www.airstream.com