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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Perhaps you could provide a plausible explanation for Tesla to "hammer the bid".
It is not in Tesla's best interest to drive down the prices. Your theory lacks motive.
The alternative is that Hedge funds "hammer the bid", knowing that Tesla was selling. Moving the SP lower actually IS in the (short, narrow) interests of hedgies....
EDIT: Here's another data point: we know now that Tesla was finished selling on Wed, Dec 9th: The SP went down -$35 between the Close on Wed and the Open on Thursday, so we know that drop was NOT caused by Tesla "hammering the bid". So who was it? Any difference in pattern of selling vs Wednesday?
Cheers!
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Bet TSLA
Active Member
Nah, that can't be the reason. Cupertino's just a random suburb with nothing in particular to recommend it.
Wonder what the Gary Black guy would say to this math?
His constant bearish pronouncement on Twitter has been that TSLA went up more than 40% since S&P announcement in anticipation of float reduction of 16%
Bet TSLA
Active Member
You might want to track your trading against your holding. I'm pretty sure that when you do impulsive things without taking the time to see if they're based on anything real, then you won't do as well as just sitting on TSLA (or really any stock you have researched carefully). Trading successfully takes time and attention, and even then may not reward you.
I trade because I enjoy gambling, whether I win or lose. Winning is better, of course. And as I've been retired for a while now, doing what I want (or what my wife wants) is a privilege I get to enjoy.
Running a business is actually something useful and (usually) productive. I salute you. Investing, at the level we're doing it, is just moving tokens around, which is inherently unproductive. At least we're not like Chanos and such, being actually destructive.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
This might be true. It's certainly within the possible, and it's likely that some of that bump is front-running inclusion. But there's no evidence he's provided one way or the other. At least not that I've seen from (mostly debunking type) responses to his stuff by Tesla Facts on Twitter.
People who count on all of the run up since the inclusion announcement being magical happy bull money, none of which will be sold off to the index funds, is setting themselves up for disappointment. He's at least slightly right.
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mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
This article isn't directly related to TSLA, but its cautionary words about trading probably apply to many of us.
Retail investors often learn the wrong lessons from success
A study of Indian IPOs suggest investors confuse luck with skill
While I suggest reading the entire article, here are a few representative passages:
Full paper: Learning from Noise: Evidence from India’s IPO Lotteries by Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam, Tarun Ramadorai :: SSRN
Retail investors often learn the wrong lessons from success
A study of Indian IPOs suggest investors confuse luck with skill
While I suggest reading the entire article, here are a few representative passages:
IT IS better to be lucky than good. This is the customary quip of poker players who owe success in a big pot to an improbable draw from the deck. In card games it is usually clear whom fortune has favoured. Not so in investing. The randomness of financial markets makes it hard to distinguish a good investor from a lucky one. It is especially hard for people to assess their own skills.
This long-understood problem has fresh resonance. In the spring no-cost brokerages that cater to small investors reported a surge in new accounts and in trading activity. Many of these newbie investors made money. “Learning from Noise”, a forthcoming paper in the Journal of Financial Economics by Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam and Tarun Ramadorai, sheds light on how these investors might misinterpret their success. Their study’s main finding is that retail investors who were randomly allocated shares in successful Indian IPOs view their good fortune as evidence of skill. There are dangers for new investors in misunderstanding the markets. But the bigger hazard might lie in misunderstanding themselves.
[...]
There are stock traders who are genuinely good and not merely lucky. But the number of investors who can trade in and out of shares frequently and profitably is vanishingly small. The “Learning from Noise” study shows how easy it might be for you to convince yourself that you are one of them. But it is probably wise to assume that you are not.
This long-understood problem has fresh resonance. In the spring no-cost brokerages that cater to small investors reported a surge in new accounts and in trading activity. Many of these newbie investors made money. “Learning from Noise”, a forthcoming paper in the Journal of Financial Economics by Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam and Tarun Ramadorai, sheds light on how these investors might misinterpret their success. Their study’s main finding is that retail investors who were randomly allocated shares in successful Indian IPOs view their good fortune as evidence of skill. There are dangers for new investors in misunderstanding the markets. But the bigger hazard might lie in misunderstanding themselves.
[...]
There are stock traders who are genuinely good and not merely lucky. But the number of investors who can trade in and out of shares frequently and profitably is vanishingly small. The “Learning from Noise” study shows how easy it might be for you to convince yourself that you are one of them. But it is probably wise to assume that you are not.
Full paper: Learning from Noise: Evidence from India’s IPO Lotteries by Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam, Tarun Ramadorai :: SSRN
So if the puts you sold ended up ITM, would you have put down 6.2 million and purchased 10k shares or just bought back the puts?
Exactly
The share price never moves in a linear relation to the other metrics
The demand supply paradigm takes over here
The front running has led to explosive appreciation of the share price
I believe a significant horde of shares have already been accumulated by the front running entities
The opposite holds true when time comes next week and they start unloading
I won’t be surprised to see only a moderate rise in share price instead of a squeeze as the demand will likely be met by a steady supply of the accumulated shares .
Just want everyone to be cognizant of this possibility and not get hopes too high.
The share price will rise , that’s for sure.
But it is something we cannot predict with accuracy.
Be careful there, pooch. While she may have no friends around, she's ruthless about hiring security. Remember those Border Collies?
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Bought them back, or probably rolled them to next week. The bet was on TSLA not going below 589 by expiration in order to profit.
I may open a position tomorrow, write something like 700's for the 18th. Have to see what the premiums look like. Puts aren't really that useful for this sort of situation, I think, as they cap your winnings. But there may be enough premium in this craziness to justify some kind of bet. Probably something small though.
I know this is kinda OT. But a shout out to my homies; get out while your ahead.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
So yesterday was a psychology experiment. Ask yourself: did you get duped by the big boys and end up losing any of your net position in TSLA yesterday or today? I wouldn't blame you if you did. It's hard, isn't it? This is why the house usually wins.
TravelFree
Active Member
Only if you ignore the other factors that drove the stock down for it's one day of negative news. I'm referring to JPM's $90/ share while they make money on Tesla stock. Should be illegal.
The JPM analyst should be required to state- We just want to scare people into panic selling so we can buy cheap and then sell it at a high once they forget our scare tactic.
When I hear an analyst pull a stunt like that, I just wait it out. It's usually over in a day as most investors come to their senses. The key to Tesla is to know the company fundamentals and the timing of it's growth and that allows us to laugh at "experts" who secretly try to manipulate the stock price for gain.
Congratulations to those who played along and made some money from JPM,s unethical stunt.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Translation: "We're all doing the exact same thing, but when I do it it's fun and you're an idiot."
No need to take your inferiority complex out on random people on the internet. We're trying to get a squeeze rollin here. Get on board.
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