Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Don TLR]

Getting OT:

Probably a good quarter of the landscape pictures I've ever taken have the sun in them.

OT
Mostly with a wide angle lens as it isn't as much of a light source as opposed to using a large zoom lens pointing directly at the sun..
Everyone's getting those sunstars in all the beautiful Iceland waterfalls and landscape.. It's on my list of places to visit..

 

[Chickenlittle]

Just received a call from Tesla. My 3 is on the boat as well with delivery end of February/ early March. Looks like Tesla has learned a lot and is now much more reliable with dates they confirmed.

IOW, Germany is included in the first batch of EU deliveries.

It’s sad to see model 3 emigrating from US, another trump effect

 

[davecolene0606]

I had assumed that Trump knows this since he is a businessman. It just occurred to me that it is possible that he doesn't as a real estate businessman.

It makes me more pessimistic on tge outcome of the gov shutdown.

The extent of his business acumen is the use of “US bankruptcy law as a business tool”. He also use to think leveraging was a sign of poor business practice as evidenced by his claims of being “the king of cash” in the early eighties. That held up until he ran out of it and mortgaged his properties to the hilt. Of course he and his children eventually found a new source of cash flow from various Russian oligarchs looking to move cash out of the Russian federation.

Fire Away!

 

[Rarity]

I.e. Trump is "negotiating" by threatening the margins of U.S. companies...

Keep in mind that but for Trump's antics, Tesla would be paying 10 percentage points more in tariffs on the cars it is sending to China this quarter: 25% instead of 15%.

Yes, Trump is taxing companies for not manufacturing in the U.S. and employing the U.S. working class. He's been clear about it. This should benefit Tesla, because Teslal employs the U.S. working class.

 

[Tslynk67]

generally i just buy and hold, but a few days ago i sold 10% of my shares hoping to buy back in lower. so now i'm in this weird limbo where i feel conflicted whether the stock goes up OR down! (right now, it's basically in the exact same spot as where i sold)

That's one reason why I never sell - well I did sell 17 $TSLA at 353 and bought some $NVDA at 156.50, and guess what, not really working out right now, although Nvidia has been ahead a bit at times.

My thinking on this was that Nvidia was down 65% from it's top and I figured it had a lot of scope to climb quickly when macros steadied, then I would sell and re-buy Telsa and get one or two shares extra, for free! Might still happen, but with Q4ER coming, I need to do that trade quickly or the window will be lost. Unless earnings are bad, of course, but I really don't expect that.

I haven't touched my main 502 shares though and unless I'm in dire financial straits I will not sell or trade as I believe $TSLA is ready to double at short notice, but when...?

 

[Tslynk67]

I do hope that Tesla are soon to announce something regarding the Model S/X. I think removing the 75 is leaving quite a gap in the market - sure the high-end M3 fills that in terms of pricing, but not in terms of utility - a Model 3 isn't not likely to satisfy wife, three kids, two dogs and all luggage for two weeks (my case). Look, for example, at the sales stats for Norway, the 75 is the top seller of all-time for both models:

 

[Fact Checking]

Keep in mind that but for Trump's antics, Tesla would be paying 10 percentage points more in tariffs on the cars it is sending to China this quarter: 15% instead of 25%.

Yes, Trump is taxing companies for not manufacturing in the U.S. and employing the U.S. working class. He's been clear about it. This should benefit Tesla.

I'm critical of Trump most of the time, but this is true. There's also a chance that Europe might drop its 10% import duty on car imports due to Trump administration pressure, which would benefit Model 3 sales.

I also think that Trump's antics pushed Tesla into China's arms, where they got a really sweet Shanghai Gigafactory deal.

A net negative are the Trump administrations attacks on the EPA, the ZEV market and the weakening of the emissions standards.

Continuing the tariff war beyond March this year would probably offset most of those positives.

 

[agloutney]

It’s sad to see model 3 emigrating from US, another trump effect

Maybe a wall will keep those Model 3s from leaving :-/

 

[schonelucht]

Has there been any discussion on what forward looking guidance we should expect from Tesla in the upcoming shareholder letter/conference call/annual report?

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm critical of Trump most of the time, but this is true. There's also a chance that Europe might drop its 10% import duty on car imports due to Trump administration pressure, which would benefit Model 3 sales.

I also think that Trump's antics pushed Tesla into China's arms, where they got a really sweet Shanghai Gigafactory deal.

A net negative are the Trump administrations attacks on the EPA, the ZEV market and the weakening of the emissions standards.

Continuing the tariff war beyond March this year would probably offset most of those positives.

Sorry, but as markets aren't open yet... On the whole subject of tariffs it's tricky - I assume they came to be in order to try to stop dumping of cheap goods, made in countries where labor is cheap, into higher-priced markets.

Take Tesla, for example. Imagine Tesla China is a separate company. Imagine they can produce a Model 3 for 50% of the cost compared to Tesla USA. Then imagine that Glovis Captain ship bringing them all to the USA and under-cutting Tesla USA's prices by 25%. OK, it's a bit of a thought-experiment, but you get the picture.

So in some cases, tariffs are justified.

What I disagree with, is the ramping-up of punitive tariffs as a mechanism to force another country to reconsider their tariffs. This is a very childish approach and has led to turmoil in the markets. Negotiation is always a better approach.

 

[Rarity]

I also think that Trump's antics pushed Tesla into China's arms, where they got a really sweet Shanghai Gigafactory deal.

Rather, Trump's antics pushed China into Tesla's arms. Tesla is getting a sweet deal from the Chinese to do something that Tesla would do anyways. Musk loves local production because of the efficiencies.

Musk and Trump are natural allies. As Tesla investors, we should love Trump, even though as $aapl investors we may hate him.

 

[Tslynk67]

This is a strong start to the day - the big sell orders hardly caused a stutter!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Macro tailwind building! Let's do earnings on Jan 30th Elon.

 

[Tslynk67]

Macro tailwind building! Let's do earnings on Jan 30th Elon.

Tomorrow!

Broke through $350!

 

[Johnny Ma]

Macro tailwind building! Let's do earnings on Jan 30th Elon.

Don't have time to look for the tweet, but Urdeep Singh on Twitter has suggested the yearly audit may push back earnings report a little bit more this year due to PwC's policy to investigate even unlikely claims of fraud (he specifically mentioned PwC will check things like Twitter) in order to make sure they didn't miss anything. So, take last year's date and...make it a little bit later

 

[jeewee3000]

Upper bollinger band on daily chart currently at $358,27. Expect that to be huge resistance.

 

[Tslynk67]

Cost of the PW in Oz is around 12k AUD, this subsidy halves that...

 

[mongo]

Upper bollinger band on daily chart currently at $358,27. Expect that to be huge resistance.

I'm showing $375.22 at Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Interactive Chart

This is a strong start to the day - the big sell orders hardly caused a stutter!

Only 40k shares/ minute, pretty light compared to the raids of the past.

 

[ggr]

Sorry but if China is the 52nd US State, then who is the 51st? The last US history course I took in high school only had us at 50. Did I miss something? lol

Dan

Canadanztralia.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Canadanztralia.

Does that come with or without a wall? LOL!

Dan