Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

It makes me think of AOC when she successfully torpedoed the new Amazon HQ.

Congratulations for stopping one of those bad billionaires from hiring tons of people at good wages in your local area. Now he will have to do it somewhere else!

Yeah, NY, without the subsidies.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trolls Amazon over its New York expansion

 

[mrmage]

2 weeks shutdown is about the yearly shutdown time of car production. It's not small peanuts.

And this is not about just two weeks extension of the shutdown. This is how Alameda handles this crisis, how they value manufacturers and how reliable and sane they are in the future (of covid and with other concerns to Tesla).
Elon has enough of "let's just wait on another batch of data and then talk", because Tesla knows how to handle this from Shanghai. He totally lost confidence in Alameda county and Newsom (for not stepping in).

Another thing is, have you looked at Teslas HQ? It's time to move on to a bigger one.

To add another perspective, two weeks is at least 25% of Fremont production for Q2 but likely much more. Fremont won’t produce at full speed after such a long shut down, so it’s losing the last 2 weeks of production capacity for this quarter.

Eg if ramp up would have been 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6k/week (pulled these out of a hat), losing 2 weeks means losing 11k cars out of 21k, or over 50% of Fremont Q2.

 

[kengchang]

The politician who tweeted that must be pretty sheltered and arrogant to think that people will side with a politician rather than a very visible CEO of a most loved car brand. I don’t care what your political leanings are, people generally don’t like politicians of any stripe.

She's from San Diego district, of course she can say F Elon Musk. It's not her district who will suffer the tax revenue and employment loss. Hyping her supporter for the election more likely

 

[Big Dog]

Certainly states have broad powers in times of emergency. But as Metzger says in that article, it isn't a free pass. Do you think Tesla can make its case for due process and equal protection?

Tesla hired a top law firm, Quinn, so they'll make the appropriate claims. But IMO, it won't much matter. No judge is gonna issue a TRO in a complex and sensitive case. So, the suit will take time. As the legal calendar continues to turn every day, Alameda Co gets closer to approving Tesla to reopen. Eventually they will approve, and then any existing case becomes moot.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This could be the reason:

You won’t have Scott Haggerty to kick around anymore; longtime county supe will not seek re-election

Musk is gaining standing in the eyes of millions of Americans

Well howdy do.

 

[StealthP3D]

Judging by the reactions to his tweets it looks like Elon’s recent actions cost him some support among the vocal left (I’ve been looking at a lot of feeds of the ones who react negatively), but he probably more than made up for that among the middle and right.

Agree. Additionally, I don't think these gains should be measured 'one for one'. In terms of the mission, it's important for it to not be viewed as a 'far left' cause. This will help break down opposition to policies that can help it succeed.

 

[printf42]

The politician who tweeted that must be pretty sheltered and arrogant to think that people will side with a politician rather than a very visible CEO of a most loved car brand. I don’t care what your political leanings are, people generally don’t like politicians of any stripe.

On Joe Rogan podcast Elon said there are too much talented people wasted working in finance and law.

He didn’t mention politics.

Now I gets why, there are people wasted in the system too, but I doubt they would make more than they consume elsewhere anyways.

 

[traxila]

She's a former labor and community organizer and since Tesla does not embrace unions -- in pro union CA -- Elon is dead to her. Doesn't matter to her how much environmental good he does.

She is more than useless to her base, as she is a negative to their platform. In addition, she is stupid and divisive, exactly what she accuses her opposition of being. Isn’t it great to have options in the USA?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Speaking of mean tweets: Take a look at this one. She's a politician currently serving in the California State Assembly.

Lorena @LorenaSGonzalez
"Mama, Labor Leader turned CA Assemblywoman. Progressive #Latina Democrat". Appropriations Chair.
San Diego - South Bay​

The only thing Democrats hate more than Republicans is a business leader who isn't 'pro-Union'. The hooks of the UAW go deep in California. They got to Robert Reich yesterday too.

Lorena might just as well tweet 'F*ck my carreer', because she's plowing the wrong side of the field.

Cheers!

 

[goinfraftw]

On Joe Rogan podcast Elon said there are too much talented people wasted working in finance and law.

He didn’t mention politics.

Now I gets why, there are people wasted in the system too, but I doubt they would make more than they consume elsewhere anyways.

Off-topic to this post, but he also said people were/have been jumping over his wall trying to get into his house. He has 6 children now.

He's also (in recent years) had talks with his 5 children (at the time) about taking care of themselves regardless of what happens to him (making alludes/references to potential outcomes). This Rolling Stone piece, I found, was deeply...saddening at times about his home life:

Elon Musk: The Architect of Tomorrow

 

[traxila]

Lorena @LorenaSGonzalez
"Mama, Labor Leader turned CA Assemblywoman. Progressive #Latina Democrat". Appropriations Chair.
San Diego - South Bay​

The only thing Democrats hate more than Republicans is a business leader who isn't 'pro-Union'. The hooks of the UAW go deep in California. They got to Robert Reich yesterday too.

Lorena might just as well tweet 'F*ck my carreer', because she's plowing the wrong side of the field.

Cheers!

Would love nothing more than for her to have to resign in disgrace or actually issue a reasoned and thoughtful apology.

Reality: she will probably be rewarded with another decade or more at her current position, unless she tries for higher office. As so it goes in the USA.

 

[CaliBear1]

Just remember, Newsom's wealth is directly derived from the J. Paul Getty family. Getty is synonymous with Big Oil. Not many dots to connect.

Safety training does NOT take a week - one shift maximum. Tesla already stateded in their blog "all employees must complete an online video training before returning to work at any Tesla facility."

Tesla has been doing this for 2 months already at their facility in Shanghai. They know how to build cars safely, as shown by their results with zero covid-19 cases at GF3 since restarting production.

It's time now. Not some arbitary round number, lika 1 week. That's the hobglin of an uninformed, disconnected bureaucrat, who would rather be attending a Sunday b-b-q than doing his job.

This will end quickly (and poorly on election day) for Mr. Haggerty if he continues to neglect his responsibilites.

EDIT: Confirmed! Scott Haggerty is dirty as crude. Investigate his recent banking transactions? Contacts with L.A. Times reporter Russ Mitchell?



And why wouldn't the Gov'n or California correct the record on Tesla's contribution of hospital equipment in Los Angeles?

https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/article242059196.html

The rot goes to the top with this won. Makes you want to leave California for a more honest State.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Re 1.: Whew. That’s only one year from (presumed) announcement until Phase 1 completion. Ambitious, but we know it’s physically possible.

We don't know that's phyically possible. A mass production line for stainless steel bending and joinging has NEVER been done before. The closest analogy I can think of is the way MBT or APC hulls are built, but obviously that is much smaller scale production.

General Dynamics Bags a $1.2 Billion Deal for Abrams M1 Tanks | The Motley Fool

Going back to Sandy Munro's appearance on 'Autoline Afterdark' last year, he said a mostly manual line for 50K/yr could be build for $30M. A more automated line for 600K/yr CTs would cost $180M, but Tesla would need to solve some engineering issues regarding how to stamp stainless steel for the body.

Notheless, I think Tesla engineers will have this worked out by the time they announce the location of Giga Texas (Elon said he expects to make that in 1-3 mths from the 2020Q1 CC).

If I had to wager, I'd say the body line will be faster to build than a factory to build a conventional vehicle like the 3/Y, and with no paint shop, they'll be ahead of schedule compared to GF3/4.

The remaining unresolved issue is what it will take to build the new Tesla 'NextGenLion' bty pack. I think there's a pilot line going into Fremont right now to build 'plaid' powerpack, and that effort will provide Tesla engineers all the experience they need to scale up the process for CT mass production at Giga Texas.

We should know more by about the 3rd week of May.

Cheers!

 

[Big Dog]

Would love nothing more than for her to have to resign in disgrace or actually issue a reasoned and thoughtful apology.

Reality: she will probably be rewarded with another decade or more at her current position, unless she tries for higher office. As so it goes in the USA.

Fortunately, CA has term limits on the state house, so she'll have to look for another job in 4+ years. The typical transition is then to run for state Senate for another 12 years.

 

[Steve m]

Tesla hired a top law firm, Quinn, so they'll make the appropriate claims. But IMO, it won't much matter. No judge is gonna issue a TRO in a complex and sensitive case. So, the suit will take time. As the legal calendar continues to turn every day, Alameda Co gets closer to approving Tesla to reopen. Eventually they will approve, and then any existing case becomes moot.

I believe Tesla is asking for damages. The longer they are shut down the more damages are incurred. Those do not disappear just because eventually they were allowed to re-open.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I was thinking about donating to her opposition in the upcoming election but not only does he clearly not have a chance, I really dislike his platform. She is definitely one of those politicians who is protected from every getting voted out any time soon.
Issues | John Vogel for California State Assembly

The platform isn’t horrible. It’s also a platform that has zero chance of being passed in CA. So no need to stress about it

 

[traxila]

Interesting post in the covid thread which gives an idea of possible outcome if Elon is wrong. Something to keep an eye on.



Coronavirus

A corollary to this is that if it plays out in this way then we really have nothing to fight this virus with, even the best techniques and PPP.

So solution to that of continuous lockdown yields disaster and ruin anyway.

Time to try and fail if it is.

 

[Cosmacelf]

She's from San Diego district, of course she can say F Elon Musk. It's not her district who will suffer the tax revenue and employment loss. Hyping her supporter for the election more likely

OMG, I just looked her up. She Introduced AB5, the bill that has decimated the jobs of independent contractors. She is a job wrecking machine. but she also won her last election 75% to 25%. I hate one party states.

Lorena Gonzalez - Wikipedia

 

[snellenr]

All this shitake over an extra 2 weeks of shutdown?

Seems like small peanuts...

What is the Machiavellian motivation here? Marketing? Excuse to move to Tejas? There must be one.

The most likely motivation is to forestall the county from summarily and arbitrarily re-imposing the shutdown when cases (inevitably) increase as life opens back up.

The county health officer is a binary type (on/off) - Elon realizes that we live in a fractal world.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Model 3 at some point will be improved with all the Model Y improvements. That big as a house casting machine (for Model 3) will likely not be put in California.

Yes, this makes total sense now. Let the 2 smaller casting machines continue to support Model Y production in Fremont, and redirect the new, larger casting machine to Giga Texas. Well sussed!

Cheers!