But be sure to not spell it Principals!
Would that make us adherents Disciples of First Principles? I kinda like the ring to that.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Would that make us adherents Disciples of First Principles? I kinda like the ring to that.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The average income of a 4 person household would be $200k if your earlier post of 50k per capita is correct.
That same family would be at $65k at the 50th percentile
The presumed $9k per year car costs are a huge burden to the median family. Fwiw though, I very much doubt a median household takes on that kind of car burden. Perhaps the $9k figure is also an average, and is poorly representative of the median cost burden.
Not trying to nitpick here, but to point out that EV acquisition and TCO are likely still way outside of the median ICE TCO
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I am the only person out of the 'gang' I grew up with, who has ever bought a new car (here in the UK). When I wwas in my 20s,30s, the idea of buying a new car was ridiculous. Only something that rich idiots did, due to the depreciation.
Right now, the second-hand EV market is pretty tiny. people have (sometimes unjustified) concerns about 2nd hand batteries, and the ones on sale are early-tech variants. Once we get in to the mid 2020s, and there are a bunch of decent, proven, still-running great model 3s, Leafs etc on the roads, things will change.
My model S is as awesome as the day I bought it 4.5 years ago, yet it has roughly halved in value.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Strange that Nasdaq hasn't released the Jan 31 short interest. They show the dissemination date as Feb 11.
It is a long shot, but I did put some thought into it...
Say be have a bank of Powerpacks - peak power output = P1
if we have N cars charging at anytime the average power each cars gets is P1/N.
So the question is if we size the Powerpacks for peak energy storage or peak charging..?.
If we have an auxiliary battery in each stall which can output P2..... (assuming it is fully charged, or charged enough)
The peak rate of charging may be P1/N + P2, or perhaps just P2 where P2 is > P1/N.
We know Maxwell cells can absorb power and discharge power at a higher rate than a normal battery....
In reality it is most unlikely to be true, the investor day may simply have been moved to promote solar..
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You know what's wrong with this thinking? That you risk becoming a short for the next few months. Someone who's hoping Tesla Q1 sales will be bad. But not just that. You may start hoping they will not publish a battery breakthrough before Q1 results come out, maybe even that there's a forced Tesla recall. Or worse, that the rate of corona virus infections rises again. Being in a position where you are waiting, no, hoping for lower prices will do bad things to your mind. You will move over to the dark side. Don't go there!
A lot of people who got out at 400, 500 or 600 are in this same position. They are waiting for a lower entry point. And that may only come when bad things happen to Tesla. Some of them will even start hoping for these bad things to happen, if only temporary. Which puts them, more or less, in the same camp as the shorts. That's not a position you want to be in.
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This has to be like the person who made sure it got out right after the close left and the new guy keeps forgetting. It isn’t just TSLA. No stock is getting updated.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That's indeed weird - the Nasdaq site is not showing the 01/31 update for other Nasdaq companies either. The normal schedule to release it would have been a few hours after 4pm ET yesterday.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Interesting insight, thanks for sharing. There is though a difference between hoping for news that increases one's profits and turning into a FUD spewing, lying short.
Personally, I have cash waiting to buy more TSLA if it drops; and if the SP rises my investment benefits. This seems to offer me some emotional equilibrium to ride the waves of volatility. I also try to remember that the short term volatility is a zero sum game played out between investors and it has little effect on Tesla.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Found the latest short interest data on another site (shortsqueeze.com), short interest dropped by about ~2 million shares:
Code:
01/31/2020 22,750,000 <= The latest on 01/31, when TSLA closed at $650
01/15/2020 24,954,265
12/31/2019 26,259,152
12/13/2019 27,496,754
11/29/2019 28,651,737
11/15/2019 30,614,501(Note that the site appears to be rounding the Nasdaq figures to about 50k.)
@ReflexFunds is estimating that about 9-10 million shares of the short position are held by debt funds who bought the convertible notes - so there's still quite a bit of additional shorts beyond those convert hedges.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
This seems to me to be the right way to think about the short position, since a hedge is quite a bit different than a naked short. If we start from 10M in hedge positions then
Code:
SP Non_hedged_Short_Shares
300 20M
650 12MThis makes it look like the shorts have eaten their losses but maintain about the same investment in their negative sentiment.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
That would be unusual.
OTOH shorts should definitely take up tobacco for its anxiolytic effects
Yes, still having a position in Tesla with cash to buy more will mitigate this kind of thinking. In that case SP going up or down are both ‘good’. But being all out is a dangerous position to be in.
They don't even have to, for that sort of graph. Here's a graph of Model Y vs. Model T:
I don't think Ford has a new Model T
Mike Smith
Active Member
Thanks for finding that. Looks like Ihor missed almost the entire decline during that period. He showed 24.26 million on Jan 31.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
They don't even have to, for that sort of graph. Here's a graph of Model Y vs. Model T:
View attachment 510403
I don't think Ford has a new Model T
That just means those blue states are not aware the Tesla truck is now called "Cybertruck."
That just means those blue states are not aware the Tesla truck is now called "Cybertruck."
Yep.
Really, it's so easy to misuse Google Trends. XKCD had fun with it a while back:
Google Trends Maps
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
This is big, the new German EV subsidies were finally submitted to the EU, who approved them with very little delay:
"Net list price" is exclusive VAT, right? So the Model 3 SR+ would be under the €40,000 limit and would be subject to the highest subsidy of €6,000.
Q1 Tesla demand in Germany secured!
"Brussels has given the green light for an increase in the EV subsidy scheme, the Environmental Bonus in Germany. According to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the European Commission today announced that it has no objections to greater financial support for electric vehicles in Germany."
"The adjusted subsidy guideline will be published in the publication for Federal German government notifications, the Bundesanzeiger, in February and thus become effective. The new subsidy rates are to apply retroactively to all vehicles registered after 4 November 2019, according to the Ministry for Economic Affairs."
"The date was set retroactively for 4 November last year because this was the date that a car summit took place in the German Chancellery when politicians and companies generally agreed to increase the subsidy rates and extend the subsidy measure. Later in November, the German cabinet had also officially initiated the change."
"Among other things, the decision was made to increase the existing environmental bonus for purely electric cars with a net list price of fewer than 40,000 euros from 4,000 to 6,000 euros, while 5,000 euros will still be subsidized with a net list price of up to 65,000 euros. Plug-in hybrids will also continue to be subsidized, with the rate rising from 3,000 to 4,500 euros up to a net list price of 40,000 euros. The only small change compared to the press release after the car summit: The subsidy for PHEVs with a net list price between 40,000 and 65,000 euros will only increase to 3,750 euros instead of the announced 4,000 euros. This extension and the increase have been approved in principle in today’s announcement, as communicated in the most recent press release."
"The adjusted subsidy guideline will be published in the publication for Federal German government notifications, the Bundesanzeiger, in February and thus become effective. The new subsidy rates are to apply retroactively to all vehicles registered after 4 November 2019, according to the Ministry for Economic Affairs."
"The date was set retroactively for 4 November last year because this was the date that a car summit took place in the German Chancellery when politicians and companies generally agreed to increase the subsidy rates and extend the subsidy measure. Later in November, the German cabinet had also officially initiated the change."
"Among other things, the decision was made to increase the existing environmental bonus for purely electric cars with a net list price of fewer than 40,000 euros from 4,000 to 6,000 euros, while 5,000 euros will still be subsidized with a net list price of up to 65,000 euros. Plug-in hybrids will also continue to be subsidized, with the rate rising from 3,000 to 4,500 euros up to a net list price of 40,000 euros. The only small change compared to the press release after the car summit: The subsidy for PHEVs with a net list price between 40,000 and 65,000 euros will only increase to 3,750 euros instead of the announced 4,000 euros. This extension and the increase have been approved in principle in today’s announcement, as communicated in the most recent press release."
"Net list price" is exclusive VAT, right? So the Model 3 SR+ would be under the €40,000 limit and would be subject to the highest subsidy of €6,000.
Q1 Tesla demand in Germany secured!
This is big, the new German EV subsidies were finally submitted to the EU, who approved them with very little delay:
"Brussels has given the green light for an increase in the EV subsidy scheme, the Environmental Bonus in Germany. According to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the European Commission today announced that it has no objections to greater financial support for electric vehicles in Germany."
"The adjusted subsidy guideline will be published in the publication for Federal German government notifications, the Bundesanzeiger, in February and thus become effective. The new subsidy rates are to apply retroactively to all vehicles registered after 4 November 2019, according to the Ministry for Economic Affairs."
"The date was set retroactively for 4 November last year because this was the date that a car summit took place in the German Chancellery when politicians and companies generally agreed to increase the subsidy rates and extend the subsidy measure. Later in November, the German cabinet had also officially initiated the change."
"Among other things, the decision was made to increase the existing environmental bonus for purely electric cars with a net list price of fewer than 40,000 euros from 4,000 to 6,000 euros, while 5,000 euros will still be subsidized with a net list price of up to 65,000 euros. Plug-in hybrids will also continue to be subsidized, with the rate rising from 3,000 to 4,500 euros up to a net list price of 40,000 euros. The only small change compared to the press release after the car summit: The subsidy for PHEVs with a net list price between 40,000 and 65,000 euros will only increase to 3,750 euros instead of the announced 4,000 euros. This extension and the increase have been approved in principle in today’s announcement, as communicated in the most recent press release."
"Net list price" is exclusive VAT, right? So the Model 3 SR+ would be under the €40,000 limit and would be subject to the highest subsidy of €6,000.
Q1 Tesla demand in Germany secured!
Net list price is including all taxes and fees.
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