Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Model Y Heated Radar : teslamotors

I like the way Model Y features are leaking out, plenty of scope to make the Plaid Model S a really great car.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Model Y Heated Radar : teslamotors

I like the way Model Y features are leaking out, plenty of scope to make the Plaid Model S a really great car.

Nice digg! Seems that this feature was discovered by 'GreenTheOnly' in the Telsa wiring diagram for Model Y:

Retrofits to existing cars may be an issue, since the heater involves new wiring. I would expect that S/X and esp. Model 3 will be upgraded in due time, especially as this feature shows its worth.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Are we expecting Tesla and others to reset guidance at April ER?

 

[MC3OZ]

Nice digg! Seems that this feature was discovered by 'GreenTheOnly' in the Telsa wiring diagram for Model Y:

Retrofits to existing cars may be an issue, since the heater involves new wiring. I would expect that S/X and esp. Model 3 will be upgraded in due time, especially as this feature shows its worth.

Cheers!

I expect the aim is to make Plaid Model S equal or exceed any feature in Model 3/Y.

It all depends on how difficult that is, but wiring and battery are 2 areas very likely to change IMO.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Are we expecting Tesla and others to reset guidance at April ER?

Not reset, but adjust. I expect it will be already in the statement on 2 or 3rd of april.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I expect the aim is to make Plaid Model S equal or exceed any feature in Model 3/Y.

It all depends on how difficult that is, but wiring and battery are 2 areas very likely to change IMO.

In general I agree that the flagship model should be updated, but in the case of heated radars (essential only in freezing temps), and the Plaid 'S' focus on blistering dry pavement performance, it seems less critical.

I do agree that both S/X would benefit from heated radar, and its seems entirely likely they will get the update in due time. But that implies 'Plaid' will not be given special treatment as an early adopter.

Plaid means Speed; ICE means Slow!

Cheers!

 

[Quesder]

Premarket dropped to $520... then $530

 

[avoigt]

Ark Invest updates their Tesla prediction:

Very crudely, in 2024:
$1,500 is the bear case.
$15,000 is the bull case.
$7,000 is the expected value

The Covid crisis will not change the SP calculation much and they confirm their conviction.

Brett Winton on Twitter

The trend from the German cases give some hope that the curve is flattening and politicians discuss now exit options out of the restrictions from the German citizens.

With a death rate of still low 0.5% despite 36,000 cases there are structural but other cultural reasons for a comparably low rate.

Yellow are later cases adjustments as reporting comes in later.

Source is the Robert Koch Insitute.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Today marks one year from my very first TSLA purchase, and as of close of market yesterday, nearly exactly double what I paid for them then.

Considering that we're currently in a panic market, TSLA has not done too badly! And we still have the Q1 report, which even conservative is likely to have high production numbers with GF3, and the starting production and delivery of the Model Y, a higher price point vehicle to add to the Q1 earnings report. GF Berlin is still trucking along, as well as further stages at GF Shanghai. Battery day is certainly to be interesting, as entered into a market that can actually understand how far ahead Tesla is with their battery tech.

Even if Q1 doesn't place us in the S&P 500, Q2 has a very strong chance to. Then there is the planned release of the Roadster, the Semi, and the Cybertruck.

No regrets buying into TSLA.

 

[Thekiwi]

Not reset, but adjust. I expect it will be already in the statement on 2 or 3rd of april.

update what exactly though? They didn’t really provide any guidance for Q1 specifically. They expect positive results going forward, with exceptIons during product ramps. I doubt they will know profitability likelyhood until they know end of quarter delivery numbers.

 

[JRP3]

Even if Q1 doesn't place us in the S&P 500, Q2 has a very strong chance to

I'm less confident of that. Shutting down production, tooling up for ventilator production, then undoing all that and restarting production has to impact volume and margins.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm less confident of that. Shutting down production, tooling up for ventilator production, then undoing all that and restarting production has to impact volume and margins.

I highly doubt any ventilator production is touching anything on the vehicle production lines. Too risky, and I doubt there’s much production equipment overlap anyway—it’s not like you need big stamping presses to make ventilators.

I suspect they are manufacturing them in a separate (much smaller) area of the factory.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I'm less confident of that. Shutting down production, tooling up for ventilator production, then undoing all that and restarting production has to impact volume and margins.

I can say it will impact, but at the same time, they are;
1) revamping the Fremont production lines during this downtime, so maybe will be as productive as their tent version, and thus increase production when they come back online,
2) I'd think they'd not full on WWIII retool their entire facilities for the ventilators. Ventilators are much, much smaller production lines than cars, and maybe have they'd dedicate one production line equivalency to that;
And 3) Shanghai has much higher margins than Freemont, and they're rapidly ramping their production lines. If, say, the margin on the Fremont line is 15%, and the GF3 is 30%, they'd only have to produce 50k cars in Q2 to cover 100k worth from Fremont. That's only about 4.5k cars a week. I think the last ramp was about 3k cars already, so they're doing pretty great on that front.

 

[jerry33]

Sigh - I never suggested that total Google traffic has doubled, the 100 people search for "Tesla Model Y" and "Coronavirus" was simply a greatly simplified example to explain what it means to normalize results for total search volume - the numbers were not intended to be realistic representations of actual search traffic. However, I would be interested to know if overall Google searches are trending higher in volume but I can't seem to find that data at Google.



Google Trends makes it obvious that searches for "Tesla Model Y" are actually up over the last couple of months. And it would be normal for older models Like the S, X and 3 to play second fiddle during the Model Y ramp and release to customers.

This is not surprising or particularly notable.

Those who want an older model X/S/3 likely don't need to google for it. They already know it's at tesla.com.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can say it will impact, but at the same time, they are;
1) revamping the Fremont production lines during this downtime, so maybe will be as productive as their tent version, and thus increase production when they come back online,
2) I'd think they'd not full on WWIII retool their entire facilities for the ventilators. Ventilators are much, much smaller production lines than cars, and maybe have they'd dedicate one production line equivalency to that;
And 3) Shanghai has much higher margins than Freemont, and they're rapidly ramping their production lines. If, say, the margin on the Fremont line is 15%, and the GF3 is 30%, they'd only have to produce 50k cars in Q2 to cover 100k worth from Fremont. That's only about 4.5k cars a week. I think the last ramp was about 3k cars already, so they're doing pretty great on that front.

I think a profitable Q2 will come down to whether Tesla can release a functional version of FSD 'Navigate in City'. There's ~$500M in unreleased funds padding Tesla's coffers just iching to become GAAP profits.

Once Tesla becomes profitable on a GAAP basis, there's also about $2B in deferred tax valuation allowances that will help KEEP them profitable on a GAAP basis for many more quarters.

Today, Tesla isn't only about vehicle production. There's TE products like Powerwall and Megapack that can easily soak up any unused cell capacity that delayed car production makes available.

Also SAAS (Tesla in-car 'apps' sold to existing customers) can be a high-profit (80%+) income stream. Best example of a SAAS product that leverages the existing fleet? (doesn't depend on current production). A Tesla Network (TN) rollout that allows existing owners to earn $$$ with 'ride-share' services competing with Uber/Lyft.

Then there's demand levers. In 2019Q1, Tesla briefly made FSD available for only $2k. Just think what Tesla could do by debundling FSD from the vehicle. I'd gladly pay $5K for a FSD license that follows me around to any Tesla that I own, or happen to be riding in at the moment!

There's lot's of ways to earn extra profit. Time to collect underpants!

CH33RS!

 

[Sean Wagner]

The trend from the German cases give some hope that the curve is flattening and politicians discuss now exit options out of the restrictions from the German citizens.

Important to note this graph shows new cases per day, if I understand correctly. But at least it looks like a linear progression now. We will hopefully see this come down over the next one or two weeks.

 

[JRP3]

Market down on unemployment numbers.

 

[sparcs]

Model Y Heated Radar : teslamotors

I like the way Model Y features are leaking out, plenty of scope to make the Plaid Model S a really great car.

Green also makes a comment about Model Y wiring. There were people going nuts over Tesla patents guaranteeing Y would have the new 100 meter wiring. Green is saying this wiring update didn't happen:

Johannes Brorsson on Twitter

 

[Beltsbear]

I highly doubt any ventilator production is touching anything on the vehicle production lines. Too risky, and I doubt there’s much production equipment overlap anyway—it’s not like you need big stamping presses to make ventilators.

I suspect they are manufacturing them in a separate (much smaller) area of the factory.

Yup. Using plastic forming machines from the seat and interior materials areas. In empty space created by draining down supplies. Won’t be that costly either.

 

[samppa]

Green also makes a comment about Model Y wiring. There were people going nuts over Tesla patents guaranteeing Y would have the new 100 meter wiring. Green is saying that didn't happen:

Johannes Brorsson on Twitter

AP1 already had heated radar, so I don't know what's such a big fuss here..