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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So nice to see that even super low volume covering is quite painful for these MM's. Or perhaps someone is accumulating. Any way you slice it, this float feels mighty tight! Not the greatest time to be short heading into the next 4 months of bombshells.

Was thinking about PE yet again.....

If The Accountant's numbers come to fruition just over the next 4 months, and to be clear I haven't done the math, it looks like our ACTUAL PE would be ~120 if the share price stays flat. With revenue growth of 80-100% and guidance of another 80-100%.

Have those levels of PE and growth ever combined in a company of this size? I can't say Amazon or anyone ever had such a low PE at the beginning of their S-curve slope.
Apple from 2009 had 4 years of 50%+ growth ahead of it in Revenue & Net Income, yet despite that it never had a P/E ratio higher than 20x (Was usually closer to 10x).

(Tesla revenue & Net income expectations for 2021-2022 actually looks quite similar to Apple in 2009)

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Apple from 2009 had 4 years of 50%+ growth ahead of it in Revenue & Net Income, yet despite that it never had a P/E ratio higher than 20x (Was usually closer to 10x).

I don't think many people in 2009 expected that kind of growth. More often than not they kept talking about how Apple was going to die any day now. Sure, iPhone was popular, but Android was going to destroy it. And iPad was pretty popular too, but Android was going to destroy that as well. I think every year for the past 10 or so people have been saying that Apple has peaked. Sounds kind of similar to a certain company we know and love.
 
sounds like that union provision could be on the chopping block...


We could reasonably expect that, now that every U.S. based automaker except the Big 3 are taking out PR campaigns against the Union carve-out.

But I REALLY hope that the $500/Made-in-USA battery provision is retained. Let's do the current math: Giga Nevada does about 500K battery packs per year just to support Fremont 3/Y production. Say 2022 thru 2025 gives us 4 years (who knows who get elected after that). That's a grand total of $1.0B in tax rebates.

JUST FOR RENO. And that's if production doesn't increase at all. And then there's AUSTIN!

This EV bty credit is gonna be materially significant to Tesla over the next 4 years (at least).

Cheers!
 
Apple from 2009 had 4 years of 50%+ growth ahead of it in Revenue & Net Income, yet despite that it never had a P/E ratio higher than 20x (Was usually closer to 10x).

(Tesla revenue & Net income expectations for 2021-2022 actually looks quite similar to Apple in 2009)

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There's multiple counters to this argument. But just to point out the years you circled we were in a recession......every stock's P/E multiple was much lower than it usually was for years after the market crashes and P/E multiples across the board are much higher today than in those years. Apple's current P/E is 29............

Also, a big part of the reason Apple's P/E was so low to begin with is because they actually hard earnings from a early stage, mainly because while the Iphone business was new for them, the company was matured and could realize profits much sooner than a growth company starting from nothing.

Pretty easy to plot out the timelines as to why Apple's P/E never really got high.

Pre 2007 - Apple is still making money on their Mac lineup, they had 2 billion in net income that year.

2007 - Iphone is release, some hype but questions about how big it could be and to note...the company was already making 3.5 billion in net income

Years 2008- 2012 - Iphone is big success but country in recession which will depress all stock's P/E....plus Apple is able to realize profits right away which again keeps their P/E low. Their net income essentially keeps up with the stock gains....keeping the P/E multiple low.

Years 2013-2020 - Revenue growth slows considerably, is lumpy, and especially, net income starts to stall. Wall St's expectations for future earnings drops and thus their P/E never really get's higher than what it's always been.

It wasn't exactly fair for Apple to a low P/E during the first 4 years of the Iphone........but there were situational circumstances around it
 
I don't think many people in 2009 expected that kind of growth. More often than not they kept talking about how Apple was going to die any day now. Sure, iPhone was popular, but Android was going to destroy it. And iPad was pretty popular too, but Android was going to destroy that as well. I think every year for the past 10 or so people have been saying that Apple has peaked. Sounds kind of similar to a certain company we know and love.
Guess that's the difference between what people see as real competition from a competent company like Google, and a lack of competition from cars on fire GM/the rest compared to tesla.

In a way analysts were right, Android completely dominated the mobile space having 80% marketshare. However Apple was smart enough to lock people into their ecosystem with the app store, which means they continue to charge a premium for old tech compared to industry leaders like samsung.
 
Guess that's the difference between what people see as real competition from a competent company like Google, and a lack of competition from cars on fire GM/the rest compared to tesla.

In a way analysts were right, Android completely dominated the mobile space having 80% marketshare. However Apple was smart enough to lock people into their ecosystem with the app store, which means they continue to charge a premium for old tech compared to industry leaders like samsung.
Comparison to Apple probably couldn't be more apt. We can see recurring revenue soon with FSD subscription, in car entertainment. Further down the road there will be abilities store for your Tesla Bots. Tesla Bots could come with general abilities with capability of download specific ability to do specific task. Could also have Dojo subscription for running your own bot learning based on its perception in your environment. Growth is just beginning.
 
I'm only going to say this once more so pay attention!

The number of vehicles in the fleet per Supercharger connections will rightfully trend up towards some number above 40-67 vehicles per Supercharger. I'm not going to try to quantify that number because Tesla has the required data, I do not.

The reason fewer connections per vehicle are necessary as the network matures would become apparent if you lived and travelled in less populous areas as I have. You will observe that most Supercharger stations have at least 4-8 stalls and it's rare for them to be even 1/8 utilized. Over the last several years Tesla has been increasing the reach of it's Supercharger network to increasingly rural and less popular routes which has pushed the number of connectors per car to a higher number than will be ultimately needed. While it's true the fast rate of growth of deliveries has created choke points on busy holidays near large population centers, Tesla has made a conscious decision that it was more valuable to the brand to expand the reach of the network at the expense of eliminating all wait times during the busiest holiday weekends around populous areas. You can debate the wisdom of that all you want but the point is, Tesla's strategy has resulted in much unused capacity on rural routes that will not need to be doubled in proportion to the doubling of the fleet size. Large areas of the network are only used at less than 5% capacity so don't make the mistake of thinking that new connections need to grow in exact proportion to the fleet growth.

There are other factors that also allow this ratio to increase over time, one of which is the fact that cars with free Supercharging for life are becoming a much smaller percentage of the fleet every year. Yes, some people were attracted to Tesla early on because they love to get something for nothing and have a disproportionate amount of Supercharger use. People who did regular long highway trips were disproportionately attracted to Tesla for the free Supercharging. Those cars are slowly falling off the network for various reasons and are being outnumbered by new production which does not have free Supercharging and has a higher number of daily commuters who charge at home.

And, as other's have pointed out, Tesla has more manufacturing capacity than 10,000 Superchargers/year and will increase it as needed. I understand that people shouldn't ever have to wait but they also shouldn't be limited as to which rural areas they can visit. Tesla has the data to calculate the ratio of cars/connection that will be required as the network continues to mature but I believe both of these restrictions/inconveniences (rural availability and peak holiday availability) will improve over time without decreasing the number of cars per SC connection (because utilization of each connection will rise). Another way to say this is that we only needed one connection for every 40 vehicles when most connections had laughably low utilization.

To add to all these great points, the V3 super chargers have two large changes that make the throughput per station much faster. (And therefore mitigate the need for as high a ratio of superchargers per vehicle in the fleet.). The first is the peak rate of charge, and the charge curve. The second is the fact that V2 superchargers are paired and split the 150kW between the two stalls.

The difference between 75 and 250kW in the first 15 minutes is the difference between being done and ready to leave in the time it takes to grab a coffee and hit the restroom and the time it takes for a full meal.

Also, the cars are different (I believe, correct me if I am misinformed). The he model 3,Y, and new S can charge at the full V3 output. The older S and X however cannot achieve this speed, AND are less efficient, so the rate of charge per mile is also reduced.
 
I agree this used to be the case, it was an event to see another Tesla at a Supercharger. However, more and more I'm finding that there are six out of eight or four out of six stalls in use. (Refers to the Superchargers in the plains states, which is where I travel the most.)

You'll rarely or never see a Supercharger in the southeast Georgia, south South Carolina area with more than 2 stalls being used. This includes Savannah /Metter / Brunswick GA, and Hardeeville / Hilton Head, SC.

It's basically the same for all superchargers in Georgia except the ones in Atlanta.

That means the actual cars per stall at busy superchargers is far higher than the average.
 
(WTVO) — Gov. JB Pritzker signed Illinois' clean energy law on Wednesday, which includes a $4,000 rebate for residents to buy an electric vehicle (EV). Gov. JB Pritzker said his goal is to have a million EVs on the road by 2030, and the state is offering one of the highest rebates in the nation.

Good news my CyberTruck became $4000 cheaper! Couldn‘t find if there is an income limitation. Whatever still a big win for everyone looking to get into EVs.
 
You'll rarely or never see a Supercharger in the southeast Georgia, south South Carolina area with more than 2 stalls being used. This includes Savannah /Metter / Brunswick GA, and Hardeeville / Hilton Head, SC.

It's basically the same for all superchargers in Georgia except the ones in Atlanta.

That means the actual cars per stall at busy superchargers is far higher than the average.
It is the same in Australia, I've never had to wait for Supercharging, and typically no more than 50% of stalls are occupied.
It would not surprise me to see Supercharging opened up on a country-by-country basis, fairly slowly, with Tesla ensuring adequate Supercharging in the country before opening up.

The I expect a non-Tesla at a Supercharger will mostly be an interesting curiosity for a few years, Tesla is the bulk of the EV market in many countries, and many countries have additional charging networks,

Rapid expansion of Supercharging is possible. especially when the new factory in China is fully ramped. It is very likely China also supplies Europe and the Asia Pacific. The US Supercharger factory may only need to provide stalls for North America.

What is needed on many locations is more geographic coverage, opening up Supercharging might speed up that process.
 
I'm a huge SpaceX fan. Love what Elon has done with the company and for space technology. But as an investor, I gotta point out that SpaceX is a minnow compared to Tesla. SpaceX annual revenues are around 3 weeks of Tesla revenues. They have about a tenth of the employees. And the TAM of the underlying market (space launch plus satellite internet) is probably around 1-2% of the TAM of Tesla's market (transportation and energy).
 
I feel this aspect is very underapprecuated. Tesla effectively has a functioning and effective discounting for the demand curve. No money - buy a sw limited model. No worries, we're going to get our margin when we sell your trade-in with FSD enabled for the price of a new car or even above it. Legacy auto and their CPO are archaic in comparison.
That makes sense, only isn't the reverse also possible? In other words, will there be more or less cases of cars sold (or leased) with FSD that come back to Tesla, and Tesla is only able to sell it without FSD? In other words, we can't assume Tesla can sell every refurb with FSD. The financial question becomes "is the rate of FSD adoption rising to increase profit?" I think that will depend on the price.
 
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On this board I’ve expressed the opinion before that there is a reason why car companies have several brands and don’t consolidate them. In any case, hopefully the new paint shops will allow a wider spectrum of colours.
On the other hand, hasn't stopped people buying iPhones. (FWIW I'm Google Pixel :))