Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Hanging right near zero, folks. Shenanigan-tastic. I think we do have buyers out there, but they're getting knocked back by manipulations.
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Without “showing my work”, I’ll go on record with $22.3B, 28.1% Auto GM, and $1.075 non-GAAP…and will hope to be very, very, very wrong…
So we are looking at around 90% YOY earnings growth, and a 50% market cap decline.... Sweet.
Yeah but it is Euro-cool...you got a Hot hatch.At 57 years old I finally got my dream car.... and it's a hatchback. Wait, what the heck happened to me?
So we are looking at around 90% YOY earnings growth, and a 50% market cap decline.... Sweet.
Unless someone is going to give this 52 year old man a multi-million dollar contract, paid up front, to pole dance at the club...Say it with me: "Buying Opportunity".
I want to comment on the R&D accounting thing. This has always been a TSLAQ argument that is based on specious reasoning.
It is true that Tesla accounts for R&D differently than other automakers who put it in automotive COGS and this, in a sense, makes Tesla's auto gross margin percentage not directly comparable to other car companies without first making some attempt to adjust for this accounting difference.
However, bears running with this point do not like to acknowledge that Tesla's R&D expenses do in fact behave more like indirect overhead expenses than COGS, because Tesla's R&D is apparently more or less invariant with respect to production volume. GoJo, of course, conveniently neglects to mention that since it doesn't fit his narrative. The ratio of Tesla's total R&D spending to auto gross profit has been declining precipitously and will continue to do so as production volume continues to explode. It's leveled out at 16% in recent quarters because Tesla's volume growth temporarily plateaued and because Tesla is ramping up a whole bunch of new R&D efforts. Tesla is doing R&D on a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with making S3XY cars. For example: Dojo, Optimus, FSD computer, Megapacks, Powerwalls, Solar Roof, Autobidder, metallurgy for die casting that has many potential long-term applications beyond car-making, Robotaxi, and secret skunkworks projects we don't know about. Since Q1 2018, Tesla's vehicle deliveries have grown by an order of magnitude while R&D expenditure has merely doubled. This is a property of fixed costs, not variable costs, and COGS is supposed to represent variable costs only or fixed costs like factory overhead that directly relate to producing goods.
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Quarter R&D / Auto Gross Profit Auto Gross Profit Research & Development Q1 2018 65% $ 569 $ 367 Q2 2018 56% $ 691 $ 386 Q3 2018 21% $ 1,711 $ 351 Q4 2018 18% $ 1,955 $ 356 Q1 2019 45% $ 751 $ 340 Q2 2019 32% $ 1,016 $ 324 Q3 2019 27% $ 1,222 $ 334 Q4 2019 24% $ 1,434 $ 345 Q1 2020 25% $ 1,311 $ 324 Q2 2020 21% $ 1,317 $ 279 Q3 2020 17% $ 2,105 $ 366 Q4 2020 23% $ 2,244 $ 522 Q1 2021 28% $ 2,385 $ 666 Q2 2021 20% $ 2,899 $ 576 Q3 2021 17% $ 3,673 $ 611 Q4 2021 15% $ 4,882 $ 740 Q1 2022 16% $ 5,539 $ 865 Q2 2022 16% $ 4,081 $ 667
Wait a cotton-pickin' minute (Not racists my wife picked cotton on our last vacation to Alabama), did you actually intentionally or unintentionally come up with the greatest confustication I have ever read by a long shot on TMC. I think it qualifies as prose higher than poetry (so is TSLA going to $160/share).I don't agree, Analcysts know squat intimately. They love it, they make they living play in it, pushing it around the bowl. I think James Stephenson is the King of pretty graphs, and those don't move the market.
This is the Kabuki dance part of Wall St. Everyone knows the outcome in advance, and everyone is expected to be in their chair when the theatre begins.
Their negative narrative has a life of its own, independent of facts on the ground. Analysts just push it out to their audience, who are all paying customers. It does not need to resemble reality, as long as the house can still fill all the seats.
Which they do, handily, thanks to short-term thinking and ownership of the regulator (SEC). How do we get past this? Master Plan Part Trois. MASSIVE TONNAGE.
Cheers!
Say it with me: "Buying Opportunity".
Grimm's Industrial Analcysts' Chearinghouse is where he gets all his numbers from.Also I have no idea where GoJo is getting those gross margin numbers for other car companies from.
GM's 10-Q, for instance, shows $32.6B auto revenue and $29.3B auto COGS, which would be 10% gross margin. How is GoJo getting ~27% for his table? Even if we throw in GM financial which gets better margins, the total is $35.8B rev, $31.4B cost, and 12% gross margin. I can't find GM reporting specific numbers for R&D anywhere in the 10-Q or earnings press releases. Unless I missed it, they don't even disclose this information.
For GM to get 27% gross margin on automotive without R&D included (supposing the $31.4B cost figure is including all R&D expenses) that would mean GM is spending $31.4B - (1-0.27)*$35.8B = $5.3B every quarter on R&D. If they're actually spending an order of magnitude more than Tesla on R&D for their piss-poor results, that's not really building the case that Tesla is overvalued relative to GM.
Also I have no idea where GoJo is getting those gross margin numbers for other car companies from. Thin air? His bum?
GM's 10-Q, for instance, shows $32.6B auto revenue and $29.3B auto COGS, which would be 10% gross margin. How is GoJo getting ~27% for his table? Even if we throw in GM Financial which gets better margins, the total is $35.8B rev, $31.4B cost, and 12% gross margin. I can't find GM reporting specific numbers for R&D anywhere in the 10-Q or earnings press releases. Unless I missed it, they don't even disclose this information.
For GM to get 27% gross margin on automotive without R&D included (supposing the $31.4B cost figure is including all R&D expenses) that would mean GM is spending $31.4B - (1-0.27)*$35.8B = $5.3B every quarter on R&D. If they're actually spending an order of magnitude more than Tesla on R&D for their piss-poor results, that's not really building the case that Tesla is overvalued relative to GM.
I am pulling really hard for you to be able to cash out at $600.Unless someone is going to give this 52 year old man a multi-million dollar contract, paid up front, to pole dance at the club...
I don't have money for any more "buying opportunities"....
I just want to cash out what I have at SP 600....
Sooner rather than later....
Also I have no idea where GoJo is getting those gross margin numbers for other car companies from. Thin air? His bum?
I am pulling really hard for you to be able to cash out at $600.
For several reasons. But now maybe the best reason is to get the image of your first sentence out of my head.
"Intelligence analyst" ... that should tell us all we need to know.FWIW he appears to be getting that info from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kevin Tynan (he cites him as the source in one of his tweets on this data)
Only if you add guaranteed income to the mix...Lol, when HIGHER industrial output brings down U.S. markets, and all depends on MORE people sitting around watching TV instead of working (or living their lives), that means the commies have won...
Cheers!
Wait a cotton-pickin' minute (Not racists my wife picked cotton on our last vacation to Alabama), did you actually intentionally or unintentionally come up with the greatest confustication I have ever read by a long shot on TMC. I think it qualifies as prose higher than poetry (so is TSLA going to $160/share).
To get "squat" and then reconstruct "analysts" as analcysts... which they know "intimately."
I laughed so hard I prolapsed a humorhoid.