Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

His numbers make zero sense. If he's expecting 16k, why is he estimating that tesla would end Q4 with a massive number of vehicles in inventory. As in over 50k in inventory. The numbers don't add up.

I see the confusion on facts continues to rise. Imagine if someone allowed FUD to run free for a while, misinformation in both directions - what would happen? Sticking to my theory - the distractions may be intentional. Keep the confusion coming! (Edit: OK, that was harsh, was just battle talk is all.)

 

[JustMe]

Don’t look now, but TSLA is up by 13 cents in AH trading - start of the next bull run?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Don’t look now, but TSLA is up by 13 cents in AH trading - start of the next bull run?

My friends came through.

 

[phantasms]

I've been struggling with the decision of canceling my Roadster deposit so I can reinvest that $50k in TSLA. I made a separate thread to discuss. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thank you!

Cancel Roadster deposit to reinvest in TSLA/sell TSLA puts?

Hypothetically.... Imagine someone has a Roadster deposit and is considering canceling it to invest that $50k back into TSLA. Good idea or bad idea? Started buying TSLA in early 2019. Did very well. Had 1500 shares, sold a bunch near the top to take back my initial investment, home...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[wipster]

Indeed, I just looked at Belgian inventory and there's basically nothing. Normally this time of the quarter you'll see a excess of inventory "in transit", but nope... and we've seen record ships to EU this quarter too

Gives some hope on nasty red days like this...

Saw a few off-leases, maybe demos yesterday in inventory in the States with FSD included. Boy those look like buys to me! If/when the stars are properly aligned, I'll be taking advantage of one of the blue Long Range Y's.

 

[Dutchie]

Don’t look now, but TSLA is up by 13 cents in AH trading - start of the next bull run?

If it goes up the same amount tomorrow the same amount it went down today, I will be selling. I need some rest…

 

[BornToFly]

I've been struggling with the decision of canceling my Roadster deposit so I can reinvest that $50k in TSLA. I made a separate thread to discuss. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thank you!

Cancel Roadster deposit to reinvest in TSLA/sell TSLA puts?

Hypothetically.... Imagine someone has a Roadster deposit and is considering canceling it to invest that $50k back into TSLA. Good idea or bad idea? Started buying TSLA in early 2019. Did very well. Had 1500 shares, sold a bunch near the top to take back my initial investment, home...

teslamotorsclub.com

I might need to in order to avoid an Elon induced margin call.

 

[Tachyon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602423022497009666

truth table ( 2 binary events in one )
bad CPI, bad China numbers
bad CPI, good China numbers
good CPI, bad China numbers
good CPI, good China numbers

I guarantee you that any of the 4 scenarios will cause TSLA to drop 5% tomorrow . TSLA drop is the only singularity in the binary event spectacle.

 

[Tachyon]

So basically predicting a near record but they need to slow production.

Troy and GoJo are the czars of dichotomy.

 

[rallykeeper]

Tesla does manage what inventory they show (have been doing this for the last 6 years at least), so it could be larger. You just don't know the real number, except if there was very little inventory at the end of a quarter. My guess is, the showrooms won't be empty this year (I'm sure Q1 will be back to the way it usually is).

Minor data point on this.

I have a Model X order with March-to-May 2023 delivery window.

Got a text today offering me to search available inventory for delivery this December. They gave me a link that pulled up 3 available cars with very similar configs (but priced higher because I had the old FSD pricing).

Not one of these cars is showing in available inventory for new Model X's in California if you search any way other than the link I was provided.

I'm waiting out for my original delivery date and price.

p.s. I'll leave it to others to speculate why they have excess X inventory at year-end and are reaching all the way to March deliveries to find buyers. My own view is that this time around is not like the past and something has changed.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla Giga Shanghai Denies Rumor of Model Y Production Halt for Last Week of December

Tesla Giga Shanghai denies the rumor that Model Y production will be stopped in the last week of December, according to a local publication. In December, for the second time, Reuters reported a planned reduction in the production of a Chinese factory, justifying this with a decrease in demand in...

www.tesmanian.com

On Monday, China's IT House reported, citing a Tesla employee, that Giga Shanghai is not suspending Model Y production from December 25 to January 1, 2023, as Reuters previously reported. “That's not true. Why would we stop production? It's a rumor,” said a factory employee, though the name or position was not given.

Woot! I can feel it now, incoming demand shares when Reuters goes for the trifecta in 3, 2, 1 -

 

[Krugerrand]

Pretty much what we knew, but this sure as hell won't be picked up by Reuters.




What I don't get is, with all this FUD going around, how are people going to explain how insanely bad their predictions were when Q4 P&D hits? I mean, seriously, they are setting the stage for a sub-400k delivery quarter, but we all here are seeing just gang-busters numbers.

Yes! 383,000. Spread the word. The number is solid. I promise.

 

[mongo]

Minor data point on this.

I have a Model X order with March-to-May 2023 delivery window.

Got a text today offering me to search available inventory for delivery this December. They gave me a link that pulled up 3 available cars with very similar configs (but priced higher because I had the old FSD pricing).

Not one of these cars is showing in available inventory for new Model X's in California if you search any way other than the link I was provided.

I'm waiting out for my original delivery date and price.

p.s. I'll leave it to others to speculate why they have excess X inventory at year-end and are reaching all the way to March deliveries to find buyers. My own view is that this time around is not like the past and something has changed.

Your location says southern California.
Tesla focusing on matching cars to local deliveries at the end of the quarter instead of leaving them in transit is par for the course.

 

[wipster]

Tesla does manage what inventory they show (have been doing this for the last 6 years at least), so it could be larger. You just don't know the real number, except if there was very little inventory at the end of a quarter. My guess is, the showrooms won't be empty this year (I'm sure Q1 will be back to the way it usually is).

That $3,750 discount for new cars should help. The bitch about the $7,500 tax credit is that you have to owe that much FIT in order to take advantage of it and I typically don't owe any taxes, so it's really not that good of a deal but plus it's income constrained as well.

For most folks I would think the discount makes more sense, if you're buying new that is. As I posted earlier, there's some screaming deals in used inventory.

Edit: Added "for tax year 2022 at least"

Edit 2: Deleted Edit above. Reason? Stupidity on my part

 

[thesmokingman]

That $3,750 discount for new cars should help. The bitch about the $7,500 tax credit is that you have to owe that much FIT in order to take advantage of it and I typically don't owe any taxes, so it's really not that good of a deal, plus it's income constrained as well.

For most folks I would think the discount makes more sense, if you're buying new that is. As I posted earlier, there's some screaming deals in used inventory.

If one is plannig the the 7500, I'd assume they would adjust their withholding no? And if the market recovers and there's a decent rally back to 300, we all could have some tax burdens? lol

 

[wipster]

If one is plannig the the 7500, I'd assume they would adjust their withholding no? And if the market recovers and there's a decent rally back to 300, we all could have some tax burdens? lol

You are correct, but each case is different. The only thing I owe FIT on is capital gains (mostly long-term) and a piddling amount of dividends. However, since I (hopefully) won't have a huge amount of medical expenses in 2023, if I sold enough chairs to buy a Y, I would have the taxes to take advantage of it!

Thanks for turning on my brain @mongo and @thesmokingman!

 

[thx1139]

If one is plannig the the 7500, I'd assume they would adjust their withholding no? And if the market recovers and there's a decent rally back to 300, we all could have some tax burdens? lol

If you think about that. Not alot of people realize they can do that.

 

[thesmokingman]

If you think about that. Not alot of people realize they can do that.

Tbf, I normally don't think about that aspect but the wife does. She's always reworking our withholdings each year.

 

[wipster]

If you think about that. Not alot of people realize they can do that.

I didn't until they got me thinking. Makes a great amount of sense if you're going to sell shares to pay for your new Tesla.

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla Giga Shanghai Denies Rumor of Model Y Production Halt for Last Week of December

Tesla Giga Shanghai denies the rumor that Model Y production will be stopped in the last week of December, according to a local publication. In December, for the second time, Reuters reported a planned reduction in the production of a Chinese factory, justifying this with a decrease in demand in...

www.tesmanian.com

On Monday, China's IT House reported, citing a Tesla employee, that Giga Shanghai is not suspending Model Y production from December 25 to January 1, 2023, as Reuters previously reported. “That's not true. Why would we stop production? It's a rumor,” said a factory employee, though the name or position was not given.

Maybe a niave question, but how can Reuters continue this blatant manipulation and misinformation without consequence?