A failed vote would transfer all that compensation owed to Musk back to the company.
It's not really difficult to read his chess move here.
1. He wants to do his own XAI thing controlled by him
Adding how, more accurately, he wants to protect mankind by maintaining enough control over the project to prevent AI from having an unbalanced view of things affecting its decision-making in a way that is negative for us meat-sacks.
2. Investors feel mislead that he made it seem like Tesla was going to be this AI company
Some, maybe. Not me.
3. He knew the result of the case way before we did, so he put out the statement about the 25% of Tesla or not comfortable with AI
He's just looking out for mankind. He has been very clear about this. It isn't about him, it is about the potential for AI to do harm being addressed now, while in its infancy.
For instance, should shareholders with such a mindset gain enough votes to support programming AI to accept "political correctness" as being made dominant in decision making, rather than simple logic and reason. How would that work out?
Watch 2001 A Space Odyssey, Terminator, or The Matrix for an overview of potential problems which could be the result of careless AI development.
4. He thinks the vote will fail because of his own actions/plus people are not willing to give him a compensation if they don't need to.
It is out of his control. He is just waiting to see where the chips fall, then will adjust his plans based upon where the outcome leaves things. Elon is not one to become emotionally attached to concerns over personal wealth.
5. Now it's the shareholders fault for not granting him 25%, so he moves AI away from Tesla.
Without placing blame, Elon supports such a move as a solid strategy for the reasons stated above.
It could be done in a way that is equitable and supportive of the Tesla mission in every respect, while placing control over AI development out of the reach of shareholders votes resulting in destroying the world in a Matrix-like future. I don't want to be a Copper-top. Who would?
But now the insect bites back lol...cause...we bite..yeah whatever. Elon rolls his eyes and it's exactly what he predicted...
This seems to have a greater than zero chance of being an accurate assessment.