Recently enough that I doubt my opinion has changed since then. Although I hold more stock than I ever have, percentage-wise I still have a very large portion of my portfolio in DITM Jun'21 and Jun'22 calls.
I don't think any long-term options are priced attractively enough to leverage up right now. I'm still looking to deleverage completely at these prices and go around 100% stock, but with S&P inclusion still ahead of us at some point, I'm looking for a SP of at least $500, likely closer to $600 before I want to do so. Although I may deleverage Jun'21s sooner as time until expiration decreases, because they start to become more and more risky.
Looking at the Jan'23s, if the stock price is $800 upon expiration, you only break even on a $450 call compared to holding stock. Stock would nearly double, and those Jan'23 $450s would also nearly double. If stock is $1,000 upon expiration, you only net an additional 20% or so compared to holding stock.
These are horrendous returns considering the extra risk you take on, and considering the opportunity cost. Not only is there a possibility that the stock price doesn't rise that much in the next 2 years, even if it does, holding options instead of stocks means you no longer have the ability to leverage up during large crashes. If the market crashes and TSLA is somehow trading at $200 in March, if you hold stock there are likely good option deals you'll be able to take advantage of, if you already hold Jan'23s you won't have that opportunity.
My plan is to deleverage completely and go 100% stock, ideally at a stock price of ~$600, in the next few months (hopefully off of S&P or Q4 ER). Then after S&P inclusion has happened, I might look into selling some covered calls for the first time ever on a small % of my position. TSLA obviously can't go up 10x every 12 months, and imo the only large catalysts that could boost the stock 50-100%+ are:
- S&P Inclusion
- Market waking up to FSD/Robotaxi potential, although I'd guess this will be more gradual.
- Huge ramping of production over the next few years from 500k to 2M+, but this will almost certainly be a more gradual thing, and happen over the course of multiple quarters.