TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Sparky]

I'll be "pessimistic" and say 5000/week may still not quite be happening (looks like the paint shop may still need a little work).
...

This indeed became a "parts shortage" issue earlier in the week as reported elsewhere. Paint shop is a supplier to the GA lines and painted bodies are just another part.
I'll be "optimistic". I don't have numbers but I think within ±2% is what they'll hit with a qtr-exit daily run rate exceeding their goal. At this point, it's moot. Tesla has roughly, doubled output. Again.
The bear narrative will adjust and contort however it needs.
Yeah, GA4 needs work and workers (engineers have to get back to their other tasks sometime).
Probably a bit of a slowdown but this process resulted in some crazy fast convergent evolution.
GA3 and GA4 both produce cars. Bats and birds both fly. Each evolved very differently with their flying ability based on physics not who Mom & Dad were.

I'm more intrigued by Musk's "short burn" algorithm.
Gotta be a multi-stage rocket. 5k/week is just clearing the tower.

 

[kbM3]

Sell on the squeeze, re-buy when it settles back down to a more realistic valuation.

Can you be more specific? I need to know the peak ahead of time

 

[sundaymorning]

Bloomberg has pegged Model 3 production at 4,500/week

We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making

 

[Gifford 3]

Bloomberg's 4,500/wk is just too low... , my estimation is over 5,000/wk for the delivery report on 4-July.

 

[carterm2]

Planning sales... holding to roughly $405, scheduled selling in increments up to $1000. Holding call options at $330 in order to buy back in at a reasonable price. Definitely not holding TSLA at 100% of portfolio.

Quoting my wise Uncle..."Bulls go to market, Bears go to market, Pigs get slaughtered." not exclusively his quote but accurate and testing it is expensive as I have learned at my expense.

 

[AZRI11]

A.I. chip is at another level. Will be a catalyst to stock surge, I hope.

 

[PaulusdB]

Bloomberg has pegged Model 3 production at 4,500/week

We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making

Fine by me. I'll take 4,500 any week for a while. Don't forget a substantial part of those cars will be high margin AWD and AWD Performance models. And then there is the White Seats option.
4,500/week this month and 6,000 the next. Bring it on.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Bloomberg has pegged Model 3 production at 4,500/week

We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making[/QUOTE

The Bloomberg tracker is a joke! Also estimates production next week to be below 3k so obviously not the best estimate of M3 prod. I suspect @Tesla has been sandbagging VIN registrations to keep these #’s lower and help the shorts jump aboard. Going to be an exciting week!!!

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

A.I. chip is at another level. Will be a catalyst to stock surge, I hope.

Agreed! Another example of why $TSLA can’t be evaluated by traditional auto standards.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Could even be a small profit for the quarter

This quarter??? There will be a $6-700 million loss.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Most here know this, but I will voice it.

1) Next week, demand for the stock will create disproportionate price motion.

2) Tesla can create demand for stock by announcing a high fraction of vehicle orders with the fat margin full self diving option. This distances them from other auto manufacturers when people compare.

3) Tesla can report the $3.5K nonrefundable payments differently. The fine print said that money was for order processing [systems]. I added systems as there is a cost to process an order and the investment to do that has been made. I think production of the order configuration is stated to cost $3.5K. I don't know how they will report it.

The production and transaction price for the next full quarter should be defined with hard orders. The factory is booked solid. This implies a very good 3rd quarter statement and enough cash to invest.

I don't know when this news will be shared.

Most likely the $2,500 will go into deferred revenue (and the related $1,000 will be moved from customer deposits to deferred revenue).

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Yeah we are seeing loads getting cars manufactured within days instead of the 3-5 months quoted. It’s possible for someone to be a first time reserver and have their car shortly now.

If this is correct (and I have no reason to believe it isn't), there are two possibilities:

1 Production is much better than expected; or
2 Production is the same or worse than expected, and the conversion/take rate is much worse than expected.

We will know which in a couple of days.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm expecting another bear raid on July 4th weekend, and I'm not expecting numbers to be released until a bit later (either the holiday or next weekend). I could be wrong.

I'm a little worried about bears manipulating the holiday week. Strong news may limit that but volume will still likely be down. Did you see the manipulation of Apple at the close on Friday?

 

[182RG]

Bloomberg's 4,500/wk is just too low... , my estimation is over 5,000/wk for the delivery report on 4-July.

...and your “estimation” is based on what?

 

[J X 3]

No point living in the past, current pace is not where the game is. Look forward to Q3 M3 margins and exit rates.
We had 1 key news item in recent days, Tesla is prioritizing the P version so a substantial margin and ASP boost.
Then you got everybody focusing on 5k units per week for no good reason really , it's far more important how fast they push beyond 5k as everybody forgot about that.
5k was the first stage target and was suppose to achieve 25% margins at maturity but too much has changed since to keep obsessing about it.

So let's take some bets, Q3 closer to 60k or 70k M3 units? M3 margins bellow 15%, between 15 and 20% or above 20%?

 

[bdy0627]

Looks like she was talking about paint shop being at 850, which means that’s one more bottleneck resolved.

r/teslamotors - Paint Shop No Longer a Bottleneck?

If true, that's huge. It was sounding like the paint shop might be a serious impediment to 5,000+, though that line of thinking did not seem in sync with Elon's tweets. This does.

 

[dmunjal]

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

Stanphyl Capital: Tesla's Stock Kept Levitating

"The fund was absolutely massacred this month, and it was primarily due to our large short position in Tesla."

 

[sundaymorning]

If true, that's huge. It was sounding like the paint shop might be a serious impediment to 5,000+, though that line of thinking did not seem in sync with Elon's tweets. This does.

It sounds like the paint shop has made drastic improvements as of last night (850 was confirmed to be rumor). It gives Tesla 2 more days in July to see its true potential. I hope Elon provides some color of manufacturing breakthroughs along with numbers and production goals for The next 3 weeks, like he did last quarter in April. The short burn may not occur next week, but it we could be nearing that in late July if production picks up.

 

[Big Earl]

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

Stanphyl Capital: Tesla's Stock Kept Levitating

"The fund was absolutely massacred this month, and it was primarily due to our large short position in Tesla."

The ramblings of a lunatic. I couldn’t make it through the whole thing.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Considering how important of overseas expansion, I would say this is extreme low media exposure to the incoming China GF announcement. Probably all FUDed and fixating eyeballs on the phantom bankwupcy?

Go ahead, you can say it. We are all probably thinking it.
The term is Koch-Eyed.
$10MM/Y buys a lot of spin, and silence when they want silence.