TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[schonelucht]

AH has played that same common trend of a slow roll down the hill. I forget if anyone convinced me before — any strong thoughts on what's going on there?

Its literally a ‘who blinks first’ situation. With each minute that passes or a new potential funding source crossed off the list, there is shareholder that blinks and sells. We’ll.know when the funding knowledge comes public by a huge pop.

 

[ZachShahan]

You were plenty clear.

Based on my reading, the law only requires a minimum 20 day notice to call a vote.

Thanks. Hadn't seen that. Hmm ...

I also expect Elon wants to move this quickly. Hard to guess what the board wants to do. I don't necessarily think they will so easily side with Elon on this as with SolarCity. That said, I don't really have a clue.

Oddly, I haven't seen a thorough pros & cons article published on the matter. Am planning to write one tomorrow. But I'm not coming from the same background as the board members and I'm not sure anyone here really knows what their opinion on this is.

 

[EV forever]

So after a lot of thinking, here's my thoughts on the current situation.

Is that a flamethrower?

 

[dailo]

Looks like Doug Field went back to Apple. I personally like the idea of Apple investing so that hopefully there will be some better integration with iOS.

Doug Field returns to Apple's 'Project Titan' after stint at Tesla

 

[Cosmacelf]

Gerber says value $ 571

https://bcove.video/2OmRkkH

Interesting that he didn’t want Tesla to be delisted.

 

[Johan]

Moody's seems not to be a huge fan of the plan.

Moody's says Tesla's consideration to go private based on CEO's note is credit negative.

Please remember that it was Moody's who downgraded Tesla's credit rating based on "poor ramping of Model 3 production" based on quite low quality information. This happened only one week before the quarterly call, where there was much more updated data straight from the horse's mouth. That was highly unprofessional by a rating agency and clearly their downgrade was done on someone's request.

(Read @jesselivenomore 's megapost in the "Elon Musk vs. Short sellers" thread.

TLDR; You shouldn't care about Moody's - they're part of the FUDster squad.

 

[mmd]

What happened to the Model 3 sales in Canada? It dropped 83% from June to July (350 vs. 2050)!
Are these numbers accurate? Even good old Outlander PHEV sold more copies.
At this rate, it will never be able to catch up with Mercedes C class or BMW 3 series.

EV Sales: Canada

 

[CuriousSunbird]

What happened to the Model 3 sales in Canada? It dropped 83% from June to July (350 vs. 2050)!
Are these numbers accurate? Even good old Outlander PHEV sold more copies.
At this rate, it will never be able to catch up with Mercedes C class or BMW 3 series.

EV Sales: Canada

View attachment 324602

Ontario pulled their EV credit.

 

[ZachShahan]

What happened to the Model 3 sales in Canada? It dropped 83% from June to July (350 vs. 2050)!
Are these numbers accurate? Even good old Outlander PHEV sold more copies.
At this rate, it will never be able to catch up with Mercedes C class or BMW 3 series.

EV Sales: Canada

View attachment 324602

Tesla shipped a lot of cars to Canada in June so that it wouldn't pass 200,000 vehicles in the US until July. [Edit: Plus the Ontario thing.]

 

[mmd]

Tesla shipped a lot of cars to Canada in June so that it wouldn't pass 200,000 vehicles in the US until July. [Edit: Plus the Ontario thing.]

OK. That explains the June surge, but not the July collapse.
Why not ship more in July too? It's not like Tesla doesn't have cars. It is sending out marketing emails to everyone in US.

Unless as you say, Ontario killed the demand in 50%(?) of Canada.
And/or not many orders left in Canada to fulfill.

 

[ZachShahan]

OK. That explains the June surge, but not the July collapse.
Why not ship more in July too? It's not like Tesla doesn't have cars. It is sending out marketing emails to everyone in US.

Unless as you say, Ontario killed the demand in 50%(?) of Canada.
And/or not many orders left in Canada to fulfill.

Focus shifted back to US market.
Ontario change probably killed demand quite a bit (and, of course, demand skyrocketed before the change).
And there may not be many old orders left in Canada to fulfill — I don't know.

 

[WarpedOne]

So... tesla goes private, delists, whatever ... public 'price discovery' is gone, valuation is done by "outside agencies".. what will the first such valuation when time comes be?

Under 420?
No way in hell. It would mean the elon was wrong, the whole ordeal was a mistake.

How much higher then?
Mere 205/170 or 20% higher (505)?
Assuming legibility for PE, why would anyone really sell at mere 420? Wait 6 months for another +20%.

Those shorts are not just ballooning the share pool, they are paying for a lot of scaremongering that is capable of some -30% movement in price... 500 plus those 30% is some 650.

In half a year china GF will be more 'colorful' adding something to SP, I thus expect first such valuation to come around 150b- 200b. I have the history of underestimating things though ...

The goals in Elon's compensation plan regarding growth still stand, if anything they will be time compressed. 1T valuation is coming sooner, profits are not. I need some short-term liquidity though so I am prepared to part with some of my shares at reasonable price say 4k.

Yes, my offer used to be low, mere 3k but no one took that bargain price and now it is gone.

 

[Cosmacelf]

OK. That explains the June surge, but not the July collapse.
Why not ship more in July too? It's not like Tesla doesn't have cars. It is sending out marketing emails to everyone in US.

Unless as you say, Ontario killed the demand in 50%(?) of Canada.
And/or not many orders left in Canada to fulfill.

There is still a large waiting list for Model 3 cars in Canada. It’s just allocation. Tesla intentionally sent a bunch of cars to Canada in June to not trip the 200,000 car sold ceiling for the US Fed credit. Now in July, all allocation is back in the US since the click is ticking on that Fed tax credit.

 

[RobStark]

The goals in Elon's compensation plan regarding growth still stand, if anything they will be time compressed. 1T valuation is coming sooner, profits are not. I need some short-term liquidity though so I am prepared to part with some of my shares at reasonable price say 4k.

Original compensation package is not just market cap(not valuation by 3rd party) so compensation package will have to be redone.

 

[Runarbt]

What happened to the Model 3 sales in Canada? It dropped 83% from June to July (350 vs. 2050)!
Are these numbers accurate? Even good old Outlander PHEV sold more copies.
At this rate, it will never be able to catch up with Mercedes C class or BMW 3 series.

EV Sales: Canada

View attachment 324602

Pre-q3 focus was Canada to avoid hitting 200k i US to early.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Shotwell is a great manager, but SpaceX would not be anywhere near where it is today without Elon. I would argue instead that they work together well as a team, and the company wouldn’t be as far along as it is today if one or the other hadn’t been there. However, Elon is by far the most important of the two. Great managers are rare, but not impossible to find. Visionary, technical leaders like Elon are extremely rare.

One of Elon’s strengths is that he makes bold decisions that work out. Building the Nevada gigafactory, the largest factory in the world, was a ridiculous idea for such a small company. Spending huge amounts of money on rocket reusability was so idiotic that no national government even considered doing it the way Elon did it (the space shuttle was the government’s solution, a committee design if I ever saw one).

Make no mistake, Tesla’s value would diminish significantly if Elon weren’t there.

Certainly, it would have not gotten here without Elon. But things are running smoothly, and Gwynne is a true believer in the same end goals. Don't underestimate her.

 

[Runarbt]

OK. That explains the June surge, but not the July collapse.
Why not ship more in July too? It's not like Tesla doesn't have cars. It is sending out marketing emails to everyone in US.

Unless as you say, Ontario killed the demand in 50%(?) of Canada.
And/or not many orders left in Canada to fulfill.

They want to maximize use of 7500 taxe rebate. After this goes down 2019 focus and priority will be more evenly distributed.

 

[oneday]

For the love of God. Please talk about demand in the demand thread.

I really hope this private thing works out because these tired arguments are such a waste of brainwaves.

Better to just not respond to the troll.

 

[Bartek652]

The funny thing is that when short burn happen I will sell some of my shares only to get money to upgrade my Model 3 reservation to full spec Performance version. So Tesla will benefit from that short burn in many ways.

 

[KarenRei]

In... I always wanted to see the Northern Lights.
Maybe Ölstofa Kormáks og Skjaldar (I hear Brio is a good local beer)
or Slippbarinn if cocktails are preferred.
On topic: did you get stop-lossed at $367? Hope you bought back today if so.

I actually should have had two sells go through, but they didn't. Now I actually wish that they had I've contacted my bank to make sure things go more smoothly from now on. I made a small buy at $259, and yesterday I set up some larger buys set up at $249 and $239 (but it was after working hours here when I requested them).