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And I know why I don't follow many on twitter...I go down the flaming crap hole that is the comment and retweet section and then I have to go take a shower and bleach my eyes out.
if they all default to the cash option they can stay short until the end and be cashed out at 420
I sold Oct 200 put @ $4.4. I am surprised at how high put premiums have risen. They are now higher than the level at which the SP was after the result.Just sold Nov 350 put @39, worse case I will own stock at cost of $311.00
Shorts getting out selling to shorts getting in?
Not even Elon may be able to magically create a scenario whereby non-accredited investors can participate in a private Tesla.
Seems to me (and this is "NOT an advice") that it would be prudent for TSLA longs who fall into non-accredited status to consider, as a safety-net, to rig their accounts now to place good-til-cancelled orders to sell everything they own in TSLA, limit set at high prices above $420, however higher above $420 you think it might go, or that you would be at least partially satisfied that you got a good return on your TSLA investment. For example, set some to $450, some to $550 or $700, or $1000 and higher if you're really feeling adventurous, and perhaps a squeeze or other panic-buy will come along in the course of the next few months and trigger your limit sell orders to go into effect.
I truly hope Tesla can find a way to enable non-accredited investors to stay on board even in a private scenario. I mean, think about it, it's likely that many non-accredited TSLA longs are counting on TSLA to turn them into accredited investors, amirite?!
October 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze timeline:
So I did a bit of Volkswagen short squeeze archaeology.
Volkswagen is trading on a number of instruments, but their main instrument is "Volkswagen AG ST O.N." on XETRA, which was squeezed the hardest in 2008.
You can follow part of the squeeze on the Yahoo Finance chart as well:
VOW.DE : Summary for VOLKSWAGEN AG ST O.N. - Yahoo Finance
NOTE: Curiously the Yahoo Finance data for the key 2008.10.28 day of the short squeeze has been edited for unknown reasons, but it's not the correct historic price action of that day: the short squeeze spike has been edited away in the Yahoo data. In my post I'm using accurate historic data, but the data source is not public so I cannot link to it.
Here's the timeline of the Volkswagen short squeeze:
- Firstly, in August and September of 2008 the pre-squeeze Volkswagen price levels were fluctuating in a relatively narrow band around ~200€, on a low 1-3M shares/day volume, with low volatility, up to 2008.09.12.
- On 2008.09.15 (a Monday) volume spiked up: this was I believe mostly due to the global effects of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, not directly related to the impending Volkswagen short squeeze.
- On 2008.10.24 (Friday) Just before the short squeeze there was a daily low of 201€ on average post-Lehman volume levels, with a closing price of 210.9€.
Permanent short squeeze price effects: note that price remained at elevated +20% levels despite the biggest financial crisis raging: I'd guess this was in part the anti-dilutive effect of many shorts closing.
- Over the weekend the Porsche broke: Porsche revealed in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it had effectively gained control of 74 percent of Volkswagen’s voting shares. With Lower Saxony owning another 20% stake the possible float reduced to just 6% - while the short interest was larger than this, around 13%.
- On 2008.10.27 (Monday) On this news all hell broke loose: a brutal gap to 350€ on open and an intraday spike to 635€ on heavy volume, 520€ closing price. Speculation: the daily low is documented as 471€, which means that the opening price probably went up monotonically in the first tick and never dropped below 471€ - and only few shorts got execution at the 350€ opening price. So the true opening gap was probably around +123%, and this probably instantly margin-called a lot of shorts who probably had cash collateral posted at around 100%.
- On 2008.10.28 The next day (Tuesday) was the height of the short squeeze: open on 500€, intraday spike to 1005€ (!), a low of 471€, closing price of 945€, very close to the high.
- On 2008.10.29 On Wednesday the wildest part of the short squeeze was over, the high was to 607.1€
- Price and volume slowly went down over the week, but still closed at EUR 499.5 on Friday - which was the end of month as well. Within 4 weeks the price was back to 255 levels.
In case you distrust my data based on the edited Yahoo Finance chart you can see the spike to just beyond 1000€ in this contemporary Reuters article as well:
Short sellers make VW the world's priciest firm
In that chart you can see how the price shot up to 1000 a couple of times in the first hour of trading before settling down to lower levels - and then spiking up again for the close of the day (not visible on that ticker chart yet).
Executive summary:
- During the October 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze the share price gapped up by over +102% on the opening of the first day of the squeeze and went from 210.9€ to 1005€ within two trading sessions, a 4.7x (+370%) increase.
- Extreme price levels (compared to the pre-squeeze price) lasted a full week, 5 trading sessions.
- Post short squeeze price levels remained elevated at +20%, despite the end of 2008 financial crisis raging.
Methane Clathrate Capture that one terrifies me, as we are looking at catagory 7+ hurricanes if it gets loose@winfield100 wrote: "15% Tesla... 15% SpaceX... 15% Boring Company.... hmm, what else could we add in?"
15% Asteroid Mining 15% CO2 Sequestration 15% Methane Clathrate Capture
When does the 8k need to be lodged? Could be some very interesting reactions if it sets out details...
When does the 8k need to be lodged? Could be some very interesting reactions if it sets out details...
That's inconsistent with the data that shows net short interest dropping slowly.
I.e. if the pool of shorts is shrinking and there are buyers present who is marking down the price so systematically?
Which can only be a long reducing position size, either temporarily in combination with an options play, or permanently.
If 10 million shares are covered, and 9 million shares worth are opened, the net is 1 million reduction.
And THIS is why we love Elon so much as investors and why shorts should be so frightened of the current situation.
Elon follows-through (hopefully not on those particular shorts though).