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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Not seeing it.
Not that hard to find. Go to the source.

Shorts.png
 
if they all default to the cash option they can stay short until the end and be cashed out at 420

Why would shorts be cashed out at $420?

The $420 cash buyout is an offer to allow investors to sell shares for a guaranteed price, to the buyout consortium, which is accumulating shares. Holders of short positions need to buy shares to close their positions - and they need to buy shares from the market.
 
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Shorts getting out selling to shorts getting in?

That's inconsistent with the data that shows net short interest dropping slowly.

I.e. if the pool of shorts is shrinking and there are buyers present who is marking down the price so systematically?

Which can only be a long reducing position size, either temporarily in combination with an options play, or permanently.
 
Not even Elon may be able to magically create a scenario whereby non-accredited investors can participate in a private Tesla.

Seems to me (and this is "NOT an advice") that it would be prudent for TSLA longs who fall into non-accredited status to consider, as a safety-net, to rig their accounts now to place good-til-cancelled orders to sell everything they own in TSLA, limit set at high prices above $420, however higher above $420 you think it might go, or that you would be at least partially satisfied that you got a good return on your TSLA investment. For example, set some to $450, some to $550 or $700, or $1000 and higher if you're really feeling adventurous, and perhaps a squeeze or other panic-buy will come along in the course of the next few months and trigger your limit sell orders to go into effect.

I truly hope Tesla can find a way to enable non-accredited investors to stay on board even in a private scenario. I mean, think about it, it's likely that many non-accredited TSLA longs are counting on TSLA to turn them into accredited investors, amirite?! :)

The guidelines how the deal will be structured has been communicated by Elon already. When he did wrote "that the short burn will happen, he had finalized his plan after getting advice how it will work.

With all business related aspects of his life Elon is a person that is making a decent and profound plan and validates it before he communicates and starts acting. People get confused about him calling people boneheaded or pedos and believe that gives insight about his business attitude. It does not.

After the made the plan to go private, a plan he worked out since years now he decided to go for it having had backing from the important part of his board. No surprise here.

Elon is driven by values and his mission as a greater good and tries to motivate people to do the same. He loves people who trusted him when the outcome was very uncertain and has love for small stock owners who did invest early enabling putting his mission into reality. All his actions and decisions needs to be seen under that framework .

Having said that he will rather stop privatization as to accept that small investors will be squeezed out. Asking me, like a good chess player he thought all moves through way in advance and is certain that it will work. Now its all about execution.

Personally I doubt that accreditation will play a role at least not for small investors.
 
This is the " 2018 Investor Roundtable"
what is your __timeframe__?
20 seconds? 20 days? 20 years?
mine has gotten longer, to the point where my children, and potential unborn grandchildren, may inherit the shares of a _non_ volatile company, and perhaps be Mars colonists.
Why are we not just _accumulating_ shares for the really long haul. I wish like heck i had kept my shares i was in and out of since late 2012, at less than 7% of todays cost. $5,000/share is the same multiple. $350 divided by 0.07 i'm still eeking out a few shares at a time.
we are self identifying right here, right now, if we deserve to even be in the private company.
do you trade, or do you accumulate?
are the number of shares you have increasing?
think 2050 (i'll either be 102 or worm food or an upload)
 
October 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze timeline:

So I did a bit of Volkswagen short squeeze archaeology.

Volkswagen is trading on a number of instruments, but their main instrument is "Volkswagen AG ST O.N." on XETRA, which was squeezed the hardest in 2008.

You can follow part of the squeeze on the Yahoo Finance chart as well:

VOW.DE : Summary for VOLKSWAGEN AG ST O.N. - Yahoo Finance

NOTE: Curiously the Yahoo Finance data for the key 2008.10.28 day of the short squeeze has been edited for unknown reasons, but it's not the correct historic price action of that day: the short squeeze spike has been edited away in the Yahoo data. In my post I'm using accurate historic data, but the data source is not public so I cannot link to it.

Here's the timeline of the Volkswagen short squeeze:
  • Firstly, in August and September of 2008 the pre-squeeze Volkswagen price levels were fluctuating in a relatively narrow band around ~200€, on a low 1-3M shares/day volume, with low volatility, up to 2008.09.12.
  • On 2008.09.15 (a Monday) volume spiked up: this was I believe mostly due to the global effects of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, not directly related to the impending Volkswagen short squeeze.
  • On 2008.10.24 (Friday) Just before the short squeeze there was a daily low of 201€ on average post-Lehman volume levels, with a closing price of 210.9€.
  • Over the weekend the Porsche broke: Porsche revealed in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it had effectively gained control of 74 percent of Volkswagen’s voting shares. With Lower Saxony owning another 20% stake the possible float reduced to just 6% - while the short interest was larger than this, around 13%.
  • On 2008.10.27 (Monday) On this news all hell broke loose: a brutal gap to 350€ on open and an intraday spike to 635€ on heavy volume, 520€ closing price. Speculation: the daily low is documented as 471€, which means that the opening price probably went up monotonically in the first tick and never dropped below 471€ - and only few shorts got execution at the 350€ opening price. So the true opening gap was probably around +123%, and this probably instantly margin-called a lot of shorts who probably had cash collateral posted at around 100%.
  • On 2008.10.28 The next day (Tuesday) was the height of the short squeeze: open on 500€, intraday spike to 1005€ (!), a low of 471€, closing price of 945€, very close to the high.
  • On 2008.10.29 On Wednesday the wildest part of the short squeeze was over, the high was to 607.1€
  • Price and volume slowly went down over the week, but still closed at EUR 499.5 on Friday - which was the end of month as well. Within 4 weeks the price was back to 255 levels.
Permanent short squeeze price effects: note that price remained at elevated +20% levels despite the biggest financial crisis raging: I'd guess this was in part the anti-dilutive effect of many shorts closing.

In case you distrust my data based on the edited Yahoo Finance chart you can see the spike to just beyond 1000€ in this contemporary Reuters article as well:

Short sellers make VW the world's priciest firm

In that chart you can see how the price shot up to 1000 a couple of times in the first hour of trading before settling down to lower levels - and then spiking up again for the close of the day (not visible on that ticker chart yet).

Executive summary:

  • During the October 2008 Volkswagen short squeeze the share price gapped up by over +102% on the opening of the first day of the squeeze and went from 210.9€ to 1005€ within two trading sessions, a 4.7x (+370%) increase.
  • Extreme price levels (compared to the pre-squeeze price) lasted a full week, 5 trading sessions.
  • Post short squeeze price levels remained elevated at +20%, despite the end of 2008 financial crisis raging.

Do you know if there were any halts during that squeeze in 2008? NASDAQ will halt on anything more than +/-10% compared to the previous rolling 5min.
 
When does the 8k need to be lodged? Could be some very interesting reactions if it sets out details...

As long as no agreement has been finalized it's unclear whether they have to file an 8-K at all.

Check out the timeline of the Michael Dell buyout offer, which started in the summer of 2012:

Timeline: How Michael Dell's Takeover Bid Got Hatched

On Aug. 14, Mr. Dell formally notified Alex Mandl, the company’s lead independent director, that he was interested in taking the computer maker private. Six days later, the board formed a special committee, with Mr. Mandl as its head.

Months of deliberations within the Dell special committee began, as Silver Lake and K.K.R. began conducting due diligence.​

Nothing was announced, disclosed or filed until 2013 February 5 - about 6 months after the Dell board was informed about the buyout offer.

It would be ridiculous to require public companies to disclose confidential negotiations until they are not final yet, i.e. until the negotiations have no material effect on shareholders.
 
When does the 8k need to be lodged? Could be some very interesting reactions if it sets out details...

If required, Elon's Tuesday tweet would need on by Monday (4 business days later)

That's inconsistent with the data that shows net short interest dropping slowly.

I.e. if the pool of shorts is shrinking and there are buyers present who is marking down the price so systematically?

Which can only be a long reducing position size, either temporarily in combination with an options play, or permanently.

If 10 million shares are covered, and 9 million shares worth are opened, the net is 1 million reduction.

Side note:
The only thing worse than waiting for funds to be available is having them available...
 
And THIS is why we love Elon so much as investors and why shorts should be so frightened of the current situation.

Elon follows-through (hopefully not on those particular shorts though).

Well the SEC investigation is going to throw a scanner in his works, If Tesla goes private, it won’t be any time soon.
 
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