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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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What investigation?

Right, there is no investigation. There is no case.

This is just a formal announcement as you should expect it. People are surprised its Twitter.... well, get used to it. The time where those announcements have been printed in the newspaper on real paper is long time over.

All what we have is that someone said the SEC will look at the tweet. IOW, the SEC said someone will read it.

In an announcement 2013 from Tesla its written that they will make announcement going forward also through social media.
 
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They own about 13,171,000 shares currently, about 7.7% of Tesla.

His exact statement is:

James Anderson, a leading fund manager at the Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford, which owns $4 billion worth of Tesla stock, told The Times that while the company’s prospects were uncertain, its value was “much higher than $420 a share, probability-adjusted”.​

and:

In a series of communications following the initial tweet, Musk told Tesla shareholders who wanted to stay invested in the firm that they could do so through a private special purpose fund.

However, Anderson indicated this could be a problem for his trust. 'It’s not clear that most of our clients could own [Tesla] privately, though it would be fine for Scottish Mortgage,' he said.​

I'm wondering what his main concern is:
  • If he's worried about whether his clients can keep their Tesla shares, then Tesla could create some sort of investment vehicle directly in the UK, which would make it easier. They could do something similar in the EU as well, to help European shareholders who bought through Frankfurt keep their shares.
  • If he's worried about the $420 valuation, then I'm not sure what his argument is: new investors today can already purchase TSLA shares for $350. What Anderson thinks about valuation makes little difference if he doesn't want to sell - in fact he should be happy that bought out investors are paid less than what he thinks the stock is worth. I.e. his valuation argument only makes sense if he's worried that he has to cash out.
  • If Anderson genuinely believes that Tesla will perform better as a public company then he has not voiced that opinion so far, AFAICS.
I.e. I believe he wants to stay on board and is worried that the (U.S.-centric) SPF set up by Tesla won't allow him to do that.

I.e. it looks more like a negotiation position and "think of UK shareholders!" shout-out than a genuine "no" vote.

I'm also wondering why he did this publicly and not in private. I suspect when Anderson is calling then Elon picks up the phone.

This makes it clear that the key issue is, *who will be able to hang on in the private company*. Musk's claim that everyone will be able to is frankly implausible. We will have to find out who will be able to. I'm glad to hear that James Anderson is advocating for his clients to be able to hang on. I hope the rest of us will have similarly powerful advocates.
 
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AFAIK, the SEC's reporting requirements for public companies are what removes the risk that the SEC perceives for non-accredited investors - not the liquidity - so therefore non-accredited investors can be offered those shares.

Oooooh. If correct this would be good news. I'm really REALLY hoping that the plan is "unlisted public company with trading restricted", and I'm hoping that allows nearly everyone to stay in (Canadian retirement plans are probably still out, though).
 
Everyone is speculating some mutual funds may be forced to sell.

1) Is it possible that the requirement to sell is based only on TSLA being private and they would not be required to sell if TSLA is merely de-listed?

2) Shouldn’t people be able to examine the largest TSLA owning funds to see who is required to sell and who is not?

Question number 2 has huge ramifications on whether a short squeeze could occur.

I am inclined to believe the squeeze will occur because of Elon’s prediction.
 
Net purchasing (marker buy vs market sell) does not guarantee SP rise.

That's true - in fact the price can move without any trading volume whatsoever.

There's no evidence of such weird market action though: in most cases volume lines up nicely with the direction of the price movement. Price appeared to be moving down because an owner of shares was selling aggressively.

(I could be wrong though.)
 
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mine has gotten longer, to the point where my children, and potential unborn grandchildren, may inherit the shares of a _non_ volatile company, and perhaps be Mars colonists.
A disclosure would help... How many shares you need to become a Mars colonist? Is this one way ticket (not very attractive not, but could be super attractive 100 years later) or two way? Somehow I feel owning SpaceX shares would be more helpful here.
 
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Share price picking up

Yeah I was debating where to get in (more), so of course it went up in front of my eyes...
Worse things though, I though I was lucky getting in Wednesday morning (long term, I will be :)).

Edit: I am so OCD I purchased one share so the two accounts total a multiple of ten... Not a life philosophy.
 
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That's inconsistent with the data that shows net short interest dropping slowly.

I.e. if the pool of shorts is shrinking and there are buyers present who is marking down the price so systematically?

Which can only be a long reducing position size, either temporarily in combination with an options play, or permanently.
The options trading has been so huge that I suspect it's at least *partly* market makers. Are out of the money calls being unloaded? That might cause market makers to sell a lot of stock, if there were a lot of out of the money calls which the market makers were hedgeing with stock and they're being closed out.
 
The stock price decline.
No, it doesn't. The funders could be picking up shares (as cheaply as possible!) while *someone else* sells shares.

Here's an example: a some quant funds have algorithms which are *not* designed to handle merger/buyout trades, and will just bail out ASAP when merger news show up.
 
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