TSLA Technical Analysis

[mershaw2001]

I thought today was quite positive for tesla. Two or three times we entered into positive territory during the day. I know Defc0n is looking for something around 318 as a bottom, but I've been looking for something around 330 to add back on leverage. I think the option premium is very high here so I might enter with covered calls for the following week:

+100 TSLA shares, short a 340 call for about 11 dollars. with an expiration of next friday (11 days). This gives me a little coverage to the downside in case tesla moves down 10 or so dollars. And I think we are getting enough hints that 5000 might be in the works.

Given what is happening to the price right now I'm glad i just legged into the shares and didn't sell the call.

 

[dmunjal]

Is this a Cup and Handle forming?

 

[Curt Renz]

This came after the close from technical analyst Tim Ord who was a regular TV guest of mine. It's in regard to the S&P 500 (SPX).

For monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 6/29/18 at 2718.38.

1. Total put/call yesterday at 1.32 predict higher market 88% of time next 5 days average gain of 1.70%
2. First trading day of July up 72% of the time.
3. Bullish trin and tick close.

When up April, May and June the last half of year up 93% of the time.

All the best,
Tim Ord
Ord Oracle - Home

 

[avoigt]

Looking at the monthly chard even the largest doubters may now agree that the dip we have seen 2 months ago was just another great buy opportunity!

Congratulations to everybody who did not only realized it while we have been down there at $247 but had the balls to invest at that days.

P.S. .... imagine where we will be in a month....

 

[Dangleitus]

Is this a Cup and Handle forming?

View attachment 313151

No, the price volatility is too large, and volume does not contract on selling days , and actually increases as the price begins to rally. After a rally that is far too quick, the base pattern not only fails to break out, but nearly 50 million shares are sold onto the open market at the key 360 level.

I will be looking for a break below the 200 followed by a low volume rally where I will add to my short position.

The company has been toast fundamentally for a while now. Now the chart is showing it. A few more head fakes to get in short, but I think the terminal decline that started about a year ago continues down.

 

[neroden]

No, the price volatility is too large, and volume does not contract on selling days , and actually increases as the price begins to rally. After a rally that is far too quick, the base pattern not only fails to break out, but nearly 50 million shares are sold onto the open market at the key 360 level.

I will be looking for a break below the 200 followed by a low volume rally where I will add to my short position.

The company has been toast fundamentally for a while now. Now the chart is showing it. A few more head fakes to get in short, but I think the terminal decline that started about a year ago continues down.

It's amazing how many people can't do fundamental business analysis. I mean, truly, gobsmackingly amazing. The number of people who don't understand the basic principles of fixed costs vs. variable costs and economies of scale is mind-blowing. I used to wonder why they spent time on these things in economics classes, given how obvious they were, but it seems that a large percentage of the *financial industry* doesn't understand them, which is just *pathetic*.

I really have lowered my opinion of average human intelligence after seeing this. So many people who are so unbelievably stupid and ignorant. Maybe they were all lead poisoned as babies?

 

[bdy0627]

It's amazing how many people can't do fundamental business analysis. I mean, truly, gobsmackingly amazing. The number of people who don't understand the basic principles of fixed costs vs. variable costs and economies of scale is mind-blowing. I used to wonder why they spent time on these things in economics classes, given how obvious they were, but it seems that a large percentage of the *financial industry* doesn't understand them, which is just *pathetic*.

I really have lowered my opinion of average human intelligence after seeing this. So many people who are so unbelievably stupid and ignorant. Maybe they were all lead poisoned as babies?

Are they unbelievably stupid and ignorant or shockingly greedy, vindictive, and devious? I'm not referring to dingleitus either. He just drinks their koolaid.

 

[neroden]

The greedy, vindictive and devious ones don't surprise me. It's the unbelievably stupid ones who drink their koolaid who surprise me.

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[Curt Renz]

This came after the close from technical analyst Tim Ord who was a regular TV guest of mine. It's in regard to the S&P 500 (SPX).

For monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 7/19/18 at 2804.49.

Recorded panic in the TRIN and TICK close today, suggests gaps form January and February may get filled.

All the best,
Tim Ord
Ord Oracle - Home

 

[bdy0627]

rather than posting drivel about fixed charges or whatever, maybe you can argue the point. The facts are obvious, friend - the company has made exactly 0 pennies in net profit since its IPO. Its burning billions of dollars per quarter, and close to insolvency. Check the quick ratio. The more it earns on the top line, the more it loses where it matters...the bottom line. revenue growth averages ~70% per year over the past 4 years, net income declines 120+%. Not opinions, just facts.

Hope you all didn't invest too much into this. If you did, and when this thing blows up, don't blame us shorts. I am merely a purveyor of truth, which is something this echo chamber of a community hasn't the slightest idea about.

toodles.

Ok, for starters, This is the technical analysis thread, not the fundamental analysis thread. Charts, baby, charts, not massive revenue growth, years of product demand, delayed profits in favor of growth, not interested in that stuff here. Second, why are you on a Tesla investor's forum if you have this all figured out and TSLA is doomed? Twitter is what I think you are looking for my man.

 

[mongo]

rather than posting drivel about fixed charges or whatever, maybe you can argue the point. The facts are obvious, friend - the company has made exactly 0 pennies in net profit since its IPO. Its burning billions of dollars per quarter, and close to insolvency. Check the quick ratio. The more it earns on the top line, the more it loses where it matters...the bottom line. revenue growth averages ~70% per year over the past 4 years, net income declines 120+%. Not opinions, just facts.

Hope you all didn't invest too much into this. If you did, and when this thing blows up, don't blame us shorts. I am merely a purveyor of truth, which is something this echo chamber of a community hasn't the slightest idea about.

toodles.

Apologies for no charts.

Cash is down 1.2 Billion Q1 17 to Q1 18. Nowhere near billions per quarter. Q1 loss was sub billion.

Quick ratio is less indicative for an active auto manufacturing company since it ignores the link between accounts payable and inventory. Especially in the case of Tesla with car sales before part payments.

From gurufocus.com:

Tesla Inc has a quick ratio of 0.44. It indicates that the company cannot currently fully pay back its current liabilities.
Ten year range:
Min: 0.17 Max: 2.91

General Motors Co has a quick ratio of 0.73. It indicates that the company cannot currently fully pay back its current liabilities.
Min: 0.41 Max: 1.08

Ford Motor Co has a quick ratio of 1.11. It generally indicates good short-term financial strength.
Min: 0.21 Max: 4.14

Volkswagen AG has a quick ratio of 0.74. It indicates that the company cannot currently fully pay back its current liabilities.
Min: 0.66 Max: 1.36

 

[SO16]

Hope you all didn't invest too much into this. If you did, and when this thing blows up, don't blame us shorts.

Likewise to the shorts. Don’t blame the longs when you are still on this forum 15 years from now saying that Tesla is going to crash any day now.

 

[SO16]

Are they unbelievably stupid and ignorant or shockingly greedy, vindictive, and devious? I'm not referring to dingleitus either. He just drinks their koolaid.

I don’t think some of these shorts like Chanos are really that stupid. The goal is to make other people believe Tesla is in trouble in order to make it a reality.

 

[Dangleitus]

Likewise to the shorts. Don’t blame the longs when you are still on this forum 15 years from now saying that Tesla is going to crash any day now.

I hate going with my gut instinct on stocks, but I kind of feel like this ones going to sneak out of no where and shock people - even us bears. That said, I let the charts do the talking. I initiated short equity at 324 and will probably cover before earnings if I can irk out a nice 20% gain. Since mid june, there have been 7 overall distribution ( down ) days, each of over 10 million shares per day. The only up day with meaningful volume closed nearly where it opened on about 9 million Shares. Moral of the story is that people are selling, and selling fistful's.

If my short blows up in my face, I can sleep at night. There are actually better technical shorts out there right now anyway. tsla interests me because of the bifurcation of investors beliefs of where the company is headed.

 

[Dangleitus]

Ok, for starters, This is the technical analysis thread, not the fundamental analysis thread. Charts, baby, charts, not massive revenue growth, years of product demand, delayed profits in favor of growth, not interested in that stuff here. Second, why are you on a Tesla investor's forum if you have this all figured out and TSLA is doomed? Twitter is what I think you are looking for my man.

I was responding to someone who called me out for lack of fundamentals after I posted a nice chart. As I said earlier, I shorted at the top of the most recent range at 324 last week and have not really regretted it - exactly as I said I would.

Why am I here? Well I am short need a break of the short echo chamber, as much as I admire many of the posters. Nothing wrong with a little jovial discourse over things we don't agree on?

 

[bdy0627]

I hate going with my gut instinct on stocks, but I kind of feel like this ones going to sneak out of no where and shock people - even us bears. That said, I let the charts do the talking. I initiated short equity at 324 and will probably cover before earnings if I can irk out a nice 20% gain. Since mid june, there have been 7 overall distribution ( down ) days, each of over 10 million shares per day. The only up day with meaningful volume closed nearly where it opened on about 9 million Shares. Moral of the story is that people are selling, and selling fistful's.

If my short blows up in my face, I can sleep at night. There are actually better technical shorts out there right now anyway. tsla interests me because of the bifurcation of investors beliefs of where the company is headed.

It's near the lower end of the channel now, so you are very likely to see the money movement reverse soon. That's been TSLA's pattern for a long time. If you are swing trading it, there may be a bit more dip potential, but from where it is now, it's much more likely that there is a great deal more upside potential than downside at this level. Of course, maybe the pattern will change, but that's a risky bet.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

It's near the lower end of the channel now, so you are very likely to see the money movement reverse soon. That's been TSLA's pattern for a long time. If you are swing trading it, there may be a bit more dip potential, but from where it is now, it's much more likely that there is a great deal more upside potential than downside at this level. Of course, maybe the pattern will change, but that's a risky bet.

Such things don't necessarily hold past big corporate events like earnings reports. But yes, barring major news the channel should indicate upwards movement. This means probably that if Q2 isn't extremely bad and the Q3 outlook of +EPS and +CF is kept with production reported as humming along we'll probably see an upswing towards at least the middle of the channel.

 

[SO16]

I hate going with my gut instinct on stocks, but I kind of feel like this ones going to sneak out of no where and shock people - even us bears. That said, I let the charts do the talking. I initiated short equity at 324 and will probably cover before earnings if I can irk out a nice 20% gain. Since mid june, there have been 7 overall distribution ( down ) days, each of over 10 million shares per day. The only up day with meaningful volume closed nearly where it opened on about 9 million Shares. Moral of the story is that people are selling, and selling fistful's.

If my short blows up in my face, I can sleep at night. There are actually better technical shorts out there right now anyway. tsla interests me because of the bifurcation of investors beliefs of where the company is headed.

Best of luck to you! Same here with the long. I don’t care much about the stock price of today. 10-15 years out is what I am looking at.

 

[winfield100]

ISince mid june, there have been 7 overall distribution ( down ) days, each of over 10 million shares per day. The only up day with meaningful volume closed nearly where it opened on about 9 million Shares. Moral of the story is that people are selling, and selling fistful's.

since mid June perhaps, but add a few months to the A/D line and it sure looks like an upward trend. a simple eyeballing of the chart looks more upwards than downwards, and if you go back to beginning of December 2017 it looks more positive, eh. short term you may be correct, but i intend to hold my shares and my kids inherit most of them, after the stock splits so i have an even number