TSLA Technical Analysis

[neroden]

I was responding to someone who called me out for lack of fundamentals after I posted a nice chart. As I said earlier, I shorted at the top of the most recent range at 324 last week and have not really regretted it - exactly as I said I would.

Oh, you're a short-term technicals trader. Well, nothing wrong with swing-trading TSLA. Not my style (I'm an ultra long term investor, less than five years is short-term speculation in my book) but you won't find any hostility to *that*.

Why am I here? Well I am short need a break of the short echo chamber, as much as I admire many of the posters. Nothing wrong with a little jovial discourse over things we don't agree on?

You really shouldn't admire the posters in the short echo chamber because they range from clueless to dishonest on fundamentals. I make no comment regarding short-term technicals, though.

For short-term trading of TSLA, I personally think the smartest short-term move is actually to harvest volatility -- predicting near-term ups and downs is harder, but predicting volatility reversion is easy.

 

[Dangleitus]

"You really shouldn't admire the posters in the short echo chamber because they range from clueless to dishonest on fundamentals. I make no comment regarding short-term technicals, though. "

I made my own decisions on the fundamentals without conferring with anyone else. What ended up happening was that questions I had were subsequently the subject of lengthy articles on seeking alpha. I'll be the first to admit that there can be dishonest people on the short side of the coin, and that my confirmation bias might be playing a role into how I interpret the facts - but my simple thesis hasn't changed much since I decide to take the short side of this trade.


"Not my style (I'm an ultra long term investor, less than five years is short-term speculation in my book) but you won't find any hostility to *that*. "

I used to be that way with most of my investments myself, so I see nothing wrong with it. I have made mistakes though with this approach and been refining it as I continue to get more experience. At the end of the day, everyone's approach will be drastically different.

And to stay on subject here - the weak price action continues to reinforce my short position taken @ 324. I was particularly interested to see how these next 2.5 days leading up to earnings would pan out, and it seems to be drifting downwards. I personally think the company is in a lot of trouble, but any shift in news sentiment could possibly result in a rally. this is my risk holding short through earnings.

 

[neroden]

The company is not in any trouble at all. Don't believe the lies, it'll get you in trouble.

You still may be making a good short-term trade based on sentiment and technicals, of course.

 

[oneday]

"You really shouldn't admire the posters in the short echo chamber because they range from clueless to dishonest on fundamentals. I make no comment regarding short-term technicals, though. "

I made my own decisions on the fundamentals without conferring with anyone else. What ended up happening was that questions I had were subsequently the subject of lengthy articles on seeking alpha. I'll be the first to admit that there can be dishonest people on the short side of the coin, and that my confirmation bias might be playing a role into how I interpret the facts - but my simple thesis hasn't changed much since I decide to take the short side of this trade.


"Not my style (I'm an ultra long term investor, less than five years is short-term speculation in my book) but you won't find any hostility to *that*. "

I used to be that way with most of my investments myself, so I see nothing wrong with it. I have made mistakes though with this approach and been refining it as I continue to get more experience. At the end of the day, everyone's approach will be drastically different.

And to stay on subject here - the weak price action continues to reinforce my short position taken @ 324. I was particularly interested to see how these next 2.5 days leading up to earnings would pan out, and it seems to be drifting downwards. I personally think the company is in a lot of trouble, but any shift in news sentiment could possibly result in a rally. this is my risk holding short through earnings.

Do yourself a favor, cover before market close on Wed, lock in the profit. This downward price movement is telling me any negatives from q2 will be priced in at this point. *not an advice*

 

[Revhappy2]

Hi guys, I sold Aug 3rd 210 put for $0.47. What is the likelihood of TSLA falling more than 30% after earnings? Any other strategies to profit in the short term?

 

[winfield100]

Hi guys, I sold Aug 3rd 210 put for $0.47. What is the likelihood of TSLA falling more than 30% after earnings? Any other strategies to profit in the short term?

ignore

 

[Revhappy2]

I closed the position on the Aug 3rd 210 Put and instead opened on the Oct 17th 120 put.

The rationale is that if the stock has to fall, it will fall after this earnings, so it is better to buy the put just before the next earnings. 120 is the lowest I got.

 

[winfield100]

over the month of July the a/d line is _positive_
and since 1/1/2018 the trend is upwards buying pressure from simply looking at it
i cannot say "i wish you well on its going down, but unless there a "negative" black swan, eh

 

[D-egg-O]

If this run continues next week, below are the WEEKLY BB(20,2) and BB(30,3) cross over prices for reference.

 

[winfield100]

Since the "Speigel bottom" of 11/30/2016, Accumulation/Distribution line is POSITIVE ~126 million shares, (with a linear regression line and a WMA line to smooth

And since 3/29, the A/D line has advanced about 70 million shares not as steep, but still still climbing, w linear regression line

and the stock price, with BBands, Linear regression line looks nicely positive, so "heidy ho, it's off to buy another share or 3, I go" (pretty tapped out and dislike margin, eh. (does anyone like or have better indicators? i'm kinda stuck on A/D......)

 

[Revhappy2]

Hi winfield100, I have an iron consor on TSLA

-1 400 CALL $10

+1 420 CALL $6.8

-1 300 PUT $11.70

+1 280 PUT $7.87

All 19th Oct 2018 strikes. Max profit $700 and max loss $1300. What are the chances thst TSLA stays within 300 to 400 in the next 3 months?

 

[Curt Renz]

This came after the close from technical analyst Tim Ord who was a regular TV guest of mine. It's in regard to the S&P 500 (SPX).

For monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 8/10/18 at 2833.28.

3 day TRIN >1.25 = bullish (close 1.27); Total put/Call 1.20 (higher with in 5 days 92% of the time, average gain 1.8%); Volume jumps >30% suggests "Selling Climax"; VIX jumps over 20%=bullish.

All the best,
Tim Ord

 

[winfield100]

Since the "Speigel bottom" {((in)famous short)} of 11/30/2016, aka Ron Baron Robin Hood investment conference, 192 million more shares bought/traded at higher prices. each an infinitesmal upwards pressure, teensy tiny pebbles/bubbles. I'm unsure how to use my "when the avalanche starts, the pebble no longer has a vote", since it's upwards, difficult to quantify, but as more and more of us, and others, stop trading, just buy and buy, refuse to allow our shares to be borrowed, and just hold tightly, removing them from shorts equations.......
it's -500 million on the left, -308 million on the right (and up +2.3 million since 8/17/2018 to 9:38 wednesday am)

 

[winfield100]

A/D line still up about 68 million since 7/3
still teensy tiny upwards nibbling pressure
about 40 trading days, 400-500 million shares traded, so between 14-17% traded/bought/accumulated at slightly higher prices
So, if you are a long term investor vs a short term any other term
ie

 

[avoigt]

Looking on the monthly chard from distance.

We are moving sideways since more then a year now versus the previous channel which was a 3 year sidestep exercise.

With CF+ and profits in sight a breakthrough is possible but not guaranteed. If that happens I expect a strong move in a short timeframe bevor consolidation. If we are at $300 we may just bounce at $390. If we are at $350 once the market realizes how dramatic undervalued Tesla is a break through the ATH is more likely up to $420, $450 or $480.

Shorts did not succeed to bring the SP under the $287 barrier since a year and the overall trend is positive. The breakout in spring was just for a few days at months end below $287 down to $247 which is why you see the red candle below and white candle right after. Having had the months a few days longer you would see just the long leg like in 2016 down to $140. Its been a classic bear trap and ended after a few days as well as the one this year. Lucky ones (including me added).

Very solid development given all the FUD we heard since Spring 2017. Upper band now tested 3 times versus 3 times in the previous channel. Frequency does increase which is another positive.

Also note the 200 MA is moving up with a neutral RSI and it looks like will cross the lower band at $287 in a few months likely about years end. Compare this to what happened when the 200 MA crossed in early 2016 the lower band at $178. At that stage it took another year to break the upper barrier.

Fundamentales are on bulls side this time though. So the band we are in right now seems to repeat what happened in the previous one in a shorter timeframe.

Also the SP this month breached the full banner from $ 290 up to $ 388 which is a testimony how undecided the market is. Combine this with the very high short volume we have seen in August and you can imagine that they managed to manipulate effectively.

Finally watch the volume. It did increase over the last months steadily. Weak bulls gave their stock to strong bulls. Shorts did not increase and since a week or so we some of them stepping out. With lower volume over the last week we may reach a point where shorts cannot convince week bulls any more to sell and them surfing out of supply.

At that stage manipulation by shorts will be difficult.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Looking on the monthly chard from distance.

We are moving sideways since more then a year now versus the previous channel which was a 3 year sidestep exercise.

With CF+ and profits in sight a breakthrough is possible but not guaranteed. If that happens I expect a strong move in a short timeframe bevor consolidation. If we are at $300 we may just bounce at $390. If we are at $350 once the market realizes how dramatic undervalued Tesla is a break through the ATH is more likely up to $420, $450 or $480.

Shorts did not succeed to bring the SP under the $287 barrier since a year and the overall trend is positive. The breakout in spring was just for a few days at months end below $287 down to $247 which is why you see the red candle below and white candle right after. Having had the months a few days longer you would see just the long leg like in 2016 down to $140. Its been a classic bear trap and ended after a few days as well as the one this year. Lucky ones (including me added).

Very solid development given all the FUD we heard since Spring 2017. Upper band now tested 3 times versus 3 times in the previous channel. Frequency does increase which is another positive.

Also note the 200 MA is moving up with a neutral RSI and it looks like will cross the lower band at $287 in a few months likely about years end. Compare this to what happened when the 200 MA crossed in early 2016 the lower band at $178. At that stage it took another year to break the upper barrier.

Fundamentales are on bulls side this time though. So the band we are in right now seems to repeat what happened in the previous one in a shorter timeframe.

Also the SP this month breached the full banner from $ 290 up to $ 388 which is a testimony how undecided the market is. Combine this with the very high short volume we have seen in August and you can imagine that they managed to manipulate effectively.

Finally watch the volume. It did increase over the last months steadily. Weak bulls gave their stock to strong bulls. Shorts did not increase and since a week or so we some of them stepping out. With lower volume over the last week we may reach a point where shorts cannot convince week bulls any more to sell and them surfing out of supply.

At that stage manipulation by shorts will be difficult.

View attachment 330921

Exactly my thoughts
Thanks for your amazing insights

I do think there is a realistic probability of $380s to $400 or so within the next 1 to 2 months but unless a very strong trend develops with sharply diverging upward pointing 13 and 34 day EMAs I would be selling at those prices and waiting for few more months of consolidation before another attempt at breaking out of this Large 1.5 yrs channel
OTOH I’ll keep an open mind based on the rapidity and magnitude of next upward move which may very well start next week since it’s a brand new month And technically speaking an impressive monthly inverted hammer on super high volume indicates a major low already put in and portends at the very minimum at least 1 month of bounce if not even better

 

[winfield100]

Personally, I think the stock price is heading upwards, and soon as upwards pressure increases
Here are my, albiet simplistic reasons.

A/D line is CLV = (((close-low)-(high-close))/(high-low)) running total and gives daily volume a extra weight

Look at A/D Line for ~March till ~Oct 2013, and Price action from $30 to $170
Look at 2015 thru 2017: flat for both, small lump, but flat for 2 years, stayed around $180 for 2 years or so
How would you interpret 11/30/2016 to now?
There is a weird disconnect with about 60 million shares being bought at slightly higher prices over the last 2 months!

Something seems to be keeping a “lid” on upwards price action ,as folks Accumulate

There is an odd divergence in A/D line and price action that has to resolve sometime.
Short interest is down ~17% but the A/D line is up and price is down. I personally suspect they will correlate sooner rather than later
Any thoughts on why I'm incorrect or wrong
(i won't have 1,000 shares until after a 2:1 stock split )

 

[bdy0627]

Personally, I think the stock price is heading upwards, and soon as upwards pressure increases
Here are my, albiet simplistic reasons.

A/D line is CLV = (((close-low)-(high-close))/(high-low)) running total and gives daily volume a extra weight

Look at A/D Line for ~March till ~Oct 2013, and Price action from $30 to $170
Look at 2015 thru 2017: flat for both, small lump, but flat for 2 years, stayed around $180 for 2 years or so
How would you interpret 11/30/2016 to now?
There is a weird disconnect with about 60 million shares being bought at slightly higher prices over the last 2 months!

Something seems to be keeping a “lid” on upwards price action ,as folks Accumulate
View attachment 330986
View attachment 330987

There is an odd divergence in A/D line and price action that has to resolve sometime.
Short interest is down ~17% but the A/D line is up and price is down. I personally suspect they will correlate sooner rather than later
Any thoughts on why I'm incorrect or wrong
(i won't have 1,000 shares until after a 2:1 stock split )
View attachment 330988

That recent divergence is quite interesting. I'm wondering if the manipulation can keep the lid on the price for that long despite accumulation of the stock. Possibly something to do with the convertibles? There has been minimal dilution over the last year, so that shouldn't be a factor. How does shorting affect accumulation? Similar to dilution I'm guessing?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Personally, I think the stock price is heading upwards, and soon as upwards pressure increases
Here are my, albiet simplistic reasons.

A/D line is CLV = (((close-low)-(high-close))/(high-low)) running total and gives daily volume a extra weight

Look at A/D Line for ~March till ~Oct 2013, and Price action from $30 to $170
Look at 2015 thru 2017: flat for both, small lump, but flat for 2 years, stayed around $180 for 2 years or so
How would you interpret 11/30/2016 to now?
There is a weird disconnect with about 60 million shares being bought at slightly higher prices over the last 2 months!

Something seems to be keeping a “lid” on upwards price action ,as folks Accumulate
View attachment 330986
View attachment 330987

There is an odd divergence in A/D line and price action that has to resolve sometime.
Short interest is down ~17% but the A/D line is up and price is down. I personally suspect they will correlate sooner rather than later
Any thoughts on why I'm incorrect or wrong
(i won't have 1,000 shares until after a 2:1 stock split )
View attachment 330988

Great observation! I do see the clear divergence between AD line and price action vs 2013
I would follow the 13 and 34 day EMAs closely once a breakout happens which is probably right around the corner
Moving averages help guide how long to hold and when to exit the trade
Also SP since April rising in a stair step fashion
Please note the clear exacerbation of UP volume
I dare evoke the coiled spring analogy at the risk of jinxing it

 

[TrendTrader007]

$360 is probably the line in the sand
Watch for either topping candles right around there especially if there is slow gradual rise in SP
OTOH if SP explosively crosses $360 then $390 to $400 is in sights
I’m less inclined to overstay my welcome over $390 to $400 but all totally depends on the quality of the next up move
BTW weekly and Monthly AD lines are trending down for what it’s worth (not much because it is neither here nor there)
Last 2 major moves been for $100 each
Shoot for $397 next time?
% wise 35 to 36% off last lows entirely reasonable
Gets me $400
That would be a formidable psychological barrier
If we blow through that then all bets are off
I’m cautiously optimistic plus incredulously skeptical
Shorts are a mischievous bunch