Recent content by heltok

Imo negative income tax > UBI.

We are suffering from exponential slope blindness:

China exports growing very fast:

If we get ASI, smart robots on earth, space mining and factories in space, build a dyson sphere etc we will have insane amounts of energy and plenty of matter and can transform the universe into plenty of beach front spaces like this: That is, if we survive.

Imo it's all about doing quick and dirty promotional videos to showcase something to motivate more funding rather than trying to do the long boring work of making a commercial product that can scale. Look how much more of a finished product the Tesla bot looks like compare to that bot. The...

If you want the probability of the outcome, imo just go to the betting sites. If there was a better way, you could use that to make money, so clearly few people actually believe there is a better way. Current odds are 65% for the approval of the compensation package… Odds historically are...

Looking forward to the rest of this exchange. My guess is that the "science" proving that CNNs are just as good will turn out to not hold to whatever Tesla is doing(which my unqualified guess is diffusion).

This is because good evals are very difficult to build - at Tesla I probably spent 1/3 of my time on data, 1/3 on evals, and 1/3 on everything else. They have to be comprehensive, representative, of high quality, and measure gradient signal (i.e. not too easy, not too hard), and there are a lot...

As someone who was followed Bitcoin since 2012, the same arguments were heard back then and it didn't stop Bitcoin from growing in usage. It's not easy to grow from $0 to $1/1337 and then to $70k in 16 years without a few ups and down along the way. Anyone who expected that hyperbitcoinization...

This seems like a pretty big deal: Maybe not super relevant to TSLA, but I assume that Tesla cars/robotaxi would get Starlink internet so maybe at least a bit relevant...

Swedish, Norwegian, Danish and Finnish Bank Nordnet allows you to vote:

A bit semi-OT, but it seems that the Iranian president likely is dead. Here is the prediction market for his status: https://manifold.markets/5bd4/will-ebrahim-raisi-survive-the-heli