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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
The company checked two of my boxes for things they need to be doing (out of 5). That to me puts the company (not the projections) back where it was about a year ago and where support was for the past ~2 years. The growth story may have deteriorated for the time being, but I think earnings are going to stabilize and unit sales should see modest growth the remainder of the year.
Taking emotion out of the equation, Tesla has a better product for the market segments it serves. (I have no idea what segment the CT is in.) There are a few fundamental issues for why growth has stagnated, but I don't see a meaningful number of people thinking a Kia, Toyota, or VW is a better car, although they may have a brand loyalty issue that limits their openness to change.
I'll still watch my execution checklist and add to it over time, but right now if there is no meltdown in the next 6 months I see solid appreciation above $220.
Milken conference over. No Tesla news or surprise announcements. Back to regular schedule programming (red Tuesday or “this time different? Stay tuned!)
AAPL announced it's making it's own AI Chip.
AAPL stock spiked up at the same time NVDA stock spiked down after hours.
dc_h
Active Member
TSLA Uber bulls:
When margins were high: OMG look at our huge 30% Margins. Toyota needs to sell like 10 cars for our every 1 car.
When margins dropped: lol we will win the price wars and crush traditional auto
When Fundamentals turn to trash: anyone who talks about TSLA earnings has no clue what they are doing.
Uber bulls who change the narrative every time TSLA fails at something I argue have no hope of escaping the echo chamber.
I'm just providing people a reason why the stock is not trading at <100 because people don't buy Tsla for the earnings today (we know this because the stock is not <100).
People also has no idea what Tsla should be valued at so it's always undervalued or over valued depending on the person you talk to. Like there's no universal agreement on Tsla because people couldn't agree on which fundamentals to value this stock at...the earnings/rev/margin fundamentals or the technology fundamentals.
I always felt Tesla had no business having operating margins over 10% when they were growing 40-50% revenue a year and doing so deserves a nutty valuation if it can be sustained. No other growth company does that (until Nvidia happened so they too deserves the pump).
Tesla was suppose to keep the lights on and break even like Amazon and build the empire they will eventually control.
Surely you can see that a lot of TSLA uber bulls are constantly changing the narrative, moving goal posts and they have ALWAYS been in hindsight.
When TSLA had 50% Growth we were going to do 30 Million cars by 2030. Now no one talks about that anymore. When they were doing 50% growth that was a big talking point.
When TSLA had price cuts we would kill competition, that is also no longer talked about anymore either.
I'm not targeting you specifically but people start to lose credibility. And now the narrative is "no it was never about killing the competition or selling 30 million cars or having high margins. It was always about FSD." O and Dojo, that is the next big thing right and 4680 batteries. Those turned out to be huge.
Anyways to sum up. I hope the uber bulls can just pick something and stick to it. I don't want to hear in 2 years nah FSD is getting there but the robots are where the real money is.
Does anyone know when the public will know the result of the compensation vote, and if it is even material to the legal case?
Is it announced at the Shareholders Meeting on June 13?
Is it announced at the Shareholders Meeting on June 13?
Yeah we see bulls and bears constantly moving the goal post when things doesn't go as planned. I always see lowering the price so Tesla can kill the competition narrative as a dumb one. I don't know why people wouldn't take what Musk say at face value, which is to move metal, keeping the manufacturing plant running even if it means lower margins.
Apple, Rivian Reportedly In Talks For Partnership
(Digitimes is the only source so take with a heaping spoon of salt)
Apple, Rivian Reportedly In Talks For Partnership
The Dow giant scrapped its Apple Car effort in February.
www.investors.com
As I understand it, voting is open until June 12.
As for the legal case wrt the resolution... I don't understand what the board thinks there. This resolution has IMO even less transparency than the original one.
10900 for the week in China - not a disaster, but not great either...
jeewee3000
Active Member
Hmm, for 5/10 I've got -190c's on the line versus -190p's and -187.5p's.
Only enough cash to execute either the 190p's or the 187.5 p's.
Theta of the 190p's is down to around $0.5, the 187.5p's to $0.8.
In serious doubt to start rolling the puts, but on the other hand we could easily end up around $185-190 this friday.
Only enough cash to execute either the 190p's or the 187.5 p's.
Theta of the 190p's is down to around $0.5, the 187.5p's to $0.8.
In serious doubt to start rolling the puts, but on the other hand we could easily end up around $185-190 this friday.
As always, depends on the premium you got for the puts, plus what hedge you have on those - I have 100x -p180's in play for this week, but 200x +p150's underwriting, so I don't really care
And then it depends whether the markets are going to punish the reality of fundamentals or reward the promise of future potential
"Do you feel lucky"?
Last price on these is now down to $3.85 for a ~50% loss in ~24 hours if that buyer hasn't already closed out that position...
learning to follow the money
i went all-in on SMCI/NVDA (XLK)... so far, so good!
when chart starts to fall, i'll probably dump then move on to XLU (utilities), just need to find stocks... this is unknown territory
i went all-in on SMCI/NVDA (XLK)... so far, so good!
when chart starts to fall, i'll probably dump then move on to XLU (utilities), just need to find stocks... this is unknown territory
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