Ulmo
Active Member
Cool! They had free natural special effects of a bunch of dust flying for the 1st stage landing. The solar arrays for the Dragon capsule deployed.
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Cool! They had free natural special effects of a bunch of dust flying for the 1st stage landing. The solar arrays for the Dragon capsule deployed.
So at this point, Section A assembles cells into packs using both Gigafactory and outside cells, sections B and C produce cells, and D, E, D' and E' are to support cell and pack assembly for 35/50 GWh, and F is for automotive subassembly (Model 3 drive units).
So... with Sections D, E, D' and E' looking like they are ready for an "inside" then Tesla is almost done with the capital expenditures necessary to achieve the original 35 GWh of cell production. It is Panasonic that needs to spend the rest of the $1.6 billion and other partners for the cell production and Tesla does needs to spend money on the pack production that point. So Tesla has spent $1.98 billion already... but that also includes Section F, which wasn't in the original plans.
Given about 9 months of installation and commissioning, I am now expecting that Tesla is looking for 35 GWh of cell production in mid 2018, not end of 2018.
The entire 2020 plan which includes 35 GWh of cell output and $2 billion invested now looks 2 to 2.5 years early and with only 30% of the building footprint built out. Again, 100% of the cell production capacity but with 30% of the building footprint and that includes a section doing something that was not part of the original plans.
Now, it is reasonable to extrapolate that the 5k/week build plan for the Model 3 has to be satisfied by the pilot phase (Sections A, B, and C). That means roughly 16-17 GWh of cell output is required out of the pilot phase. If Tesla is sourcing Samsung cells for a project in Q3/Q4, that means they are looking to achieve that output earlier rather than later.
Also... the size of D, E, D', and E' is bigger than A, B, and C. That's notable. We don't know what that means yet, but I suspect 35 GWh cell output is not the actual expected end capacity and the expected output is closer to 40 GWh.
I have discussed Tesla with one Apple software engineer who moved over there. He was more horrified than impressed, but I'm hoping his experience was not typical. My impression is that there's lots of cowboy code hacking and very little software engineering. That works for a while, but it's not sustainable. We shall see, but I'm a bit worried. I am not at all impressed with the progress in the auto-pilot software since AP2 was released.
From my many years doing software development at Apple (not currently), I'd say they rate as somewhat decent on software engineering. Without getting into details, they are another Silicon Valley company where shipping dates reign supreme and software quality is only slightly relevant.
Recognizing and hiring great people, sure. But I don't think Elon has much understanding of large scale software development. Remember, in software there are no "first principles" so his favorite mental tool doesn't work.
Giving examples of what SpaceX has accomplished says little or nothing about Tesla. Pushing updates to Tesla vehicles is essentially the same thing Apple has been doing for years pushing software to its devices, so is not evidence of greater capability. I have no idea what you mean by "full spectrum".
I am not at all impressed with the progress in the auto-pilot software since AP2 was released.
Working on framework, not working on Waymo, looks like he's not a good fit for autonomous driving specifically, not a surprise based on his departure from Tesla.
Smart brand’s move to all-electric results in losing 2/3 of US dealerships
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Automotive News reported that out of the 85 Mercedes-Benz dealership in the US that were carrying Smart cars, only 27 decided to keep selling them:
“Mercedes-Benz USA, which distributes Smart in the U.S., asked dealers to decide by the end of June whether to continue selling the ForTwo two-seater, the brand’s sole nameplate. Of Smart’s 85 outlets, 27 said they would remain, while 58 said they would move to a service-only operation, said company spokeswoman Donna Boland. Those numbers are preliminary, she said.”
The remaining dealerships are mainly located in California, New York, and other states with zero-emission vehicle mandates.
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like I said-
ICE-Co doing the best they can - but they're in the wrong business and the retail stores know it
the grind of disruption continues apace
Really? So you're the guy buying a 2012 Model S because it will keep you happy until 2027?
Not to worry. FSD will arrive just in time!Certainly sounds reasonable to me. My '91 CRX has kept my wife and I happy through 2013, and we still use it today. This year's Model X will hopefully be the car I'm driving 40 years from now when they take away the fob from me Maybe I only get 20 years though ...
Any car dealers don't/refuse to sell, the manufacturers should sell directly.Maybe they could contract out with Tesla to sell their EVs...
From my many years doing software development at Apple (not currently), I'd say they rate as somewhat decent on software engineering. Without getting into details, they are another Silicon Valley company where shipping dates reign supreme and software quality is only slightly relevant.
Recognizing and hiring great people, sure. But I don't think Elon has much understanding of large scale software development. Remember, in software there are no "first principles" so his favorite mental tool doesn't work.
Giving examples of what SpaceX has accomplished says little or nothing about Tesla. Pushing updates to Tesla vehicles is essentially the same thing Apple has been doing for years pushing software to its devices, so is not evidence of greater capability. I have no idea what you mean by "full spectrum".
For Tesla what measures their software engineering prowess is whether they can update their existing software into something better. That stresses their source code control, testing, and release processes. So far the evidence is not very good. From the outside it looks like much of their code is sufficiently messy that their regression rate is high -- as they fix bugs they introduce as many new bugs, and as they add features they break existing features. Some things are so ugly (e.g. the music UI) that they don't even try to fix it -- that's what you see when the guy who wrote the code is gone and nobody dares touch it.
I have discussed Tesla with one Apple software engineer who moved over there. He was more horrified than impressed, but I'm hoping his experience was not typical. My impression is that there's lots of cowboy code hacking and very little software engineering. That works for a while, but it's not sustainable. We shall see, but I'm a bit worried. I am not at all impressed with the progress in the auto-pilot software since AP2 was released.
Many auto manufacturers are likely looking at this more and more-- current shopping paradigm is going online for many purchases, and auto manufacturers could see an opportunity to recover extra margin...Any car dealers don't/refuse to sell, the manufacturers should sell directly.
The dilemma for other manufacturers is without dealership, they will also loose their vast n/w of Service centers. That was how things got set up the old wayMany auto manufacturers are likely looking at this more and more-- current shopping paradigm is going online for many purchases, and auto manufacturers could see an opportunity to recover extra margin...
that would be an interesting lawsuit by dealers in various states; not sure those laws allow manufacturers to go direct if ANY dealer in state is selling- State dependent of course- but....Any car dealers don't/refuse to sell, the manufacturers should sell directly.
The dilemma for other manufacturers is without dealership, they will also loose their vast n/w of Service centers. That was how things got set up the old way
that would be an interesting lawsuit by dealers in various states; not sure those laws allow manufacturers to go direct if ANY dealer in state is selling- State dependent of course- but....
Possibly traditional auto manufacturers could see service centers as a profit generating source, and would quickly cut out traditional dealers/service centers.The dilemma for other manufacturers is without dealership, they will also loose their vast n/w of Service centers. That was how things got set up the old way
Possibly traditional auto manufacturers could see service centers as a profit generating source, and would quickly cut out traditional dealers/service centers.
Service, yes perhaps. But there seem to be fiercely defended legislation prohibiting manufactures selling direct, certainly if they already have any dealers, in most if not all of the US. They will probably not lose the service revenue willingly either.Possibly traditional auto manufacturers could see service centers as a profit generating source, and would quickly cut out traditional dealers/service centers.
And I was happy with my '94 Accord until 2013 when I gave it to a relative. But that's irrelevant. These new things aren't cars, they're computers on wheels. They will obsolete much, much faster.Certainly sounds reasonable to me. My '91 CRX has kept my wife and I happy through 2013, and we still use it today. This year's Model X will hopefully be the car I'm driving 40 years from now when they take away the fob from me Maybe I only get 20 years though ...